Europe could help Ukraine most by staying out of this

Europe suddenly got busy discussing how to reengage Russia and settle the war.

On one hand I can understand — it is clear that Putin is on the back foot. He is not yet losing, but he is struggling. Hundreds of thousands killed since the start of his three day “operation”, thousands added to the list every day, this is hardly an advertisement for recruits to join the meat-grinder.

The Ukrainian strategy of going after Russian soldiers has produced results. The Russians are now losing more territory than they gained, partly because Ukraine attacked Russian territory in Belgorod. So it is time to send signals to Putin that if he wants to get out — this could be his opportunity, or things could get worse for him. 

But what do Europeans bring to the table? There were no new initiatives, nothing that would strengthen Ukraine's position in the mid- to long-term. So whichever European goes to Moscow will return with Putin’s wish list. We saw the same with Witkoff and the subsequent US push to force Ukraine to give up on un-occupied territories. 

What would Putin request from Europeans? Agree to no EU enlargement, remove sanctions, no new assistance packages to Ukraine, etc. Whatever he asks for would certainly weaken Ukraine’s position. 

So I see no added value of EU participation, on the contrary, the EU — if involved — might try to play a role that would look exactly the same as the US, i.e. trying to push Ukraine to accept some of Putin’s demands, not because it is best for Ukraine, but because the EU wants to end the war for itself. 

I am convinced that Ukrainians have channels open with the Russians. The Ukrainians are the only ones that have real leverage in the negotiations, and they will know better than anybody about where they are willing to compromise. 

Europe could help Ukraine most by staying out of this.