The Baltic States could treat Zelenskyy’s warnings with respect

If Zelenskyy is warning us that Russia might attack the Baltics, I think he probably has a pretty good reason. As a Balt, I am surprised that many of us are treating Zelenskyy’s warning with contempt, while I myself understand where he is coming from.

Some accuse Zelenskyy of spreading narratives that help Russia. Well, I very much doubt he is trying to help Russia, and I don’t think he would take that risk lightly.

Some say he is pushing a fake scare story to focus the West’s attention on supporting Ukraine. But Ukraine has been deprived of that support for a long time, and has unfortunately learnt to live without it. I don’t think he is playing games. I find it more likely that he is offering his honest analysis to his friends.

Anybody feeling instinctive anger whenever the issue of a possible Russian attack against a Baltic State is raised should have a think about these three questions:

1. Are we sure Putin has no good reasons to attack NATO? He only needs one, and it doesn’t need to be as ambitious as a full invasion and annexation. He might be thinking that a small incursion could fracture our alliance and reboot his popularity at home by providing a win for his war machine. He could use his reserves or divert some troops from Ukraine, which he sees is a much harder nut to crack than the Baltics. Are we certain that he isn’t even tempted to try?

2. If not the Baltics, then where? Even though the Baltic States have raised defence spending as a percentage of GDP to the highest levels in NATO, we remain vulnerable while the effect of that boost comes online. We have no conscription like the Finns, the German brigade won’t be here for at least a year, our militaries are less developed than other potential NATO targets, so why wouldn’t Putin choose us?

3. And are we 100% certain that Article 5 is still deterring Russia as much as it used to? Even if we still believe in the “ironclad commitment” of our allies, any expert would have to admit that some of our main allies are somewhat distracted right now while others have only recently started rebuilding their militaries. Should Putin wait until Europe gets stronger? Or until US attention returns to Europe?

Zelenskyy has good reason to doubt that the West would suddenly experience a surge of bravery if a second country in the East were attacked now, NATO member or not.

So I’m sorry, but this is why I see where Zelenskyy is coming from. The Baltics could be the target, Putin might be tempted, and our allies are currently in a tough spot. The window of opportunity is open.

My suggestion to my fellow Baltic statesmen is this: Instead of getting flustered, get ready.

Prepare contingency plans, learn Ukrainian survival techniques fast, and think about how to quickly extend the Ukrainian defence umbrella over the Baltic Sea — if indeed the merde does hit the ventilator.