China could win the war against Ukraine without firing a shot

Once again I am leaving the Munich Security Conference in a low mood. Amongst all the noise, the US signalled their plans for Europe, so things are becoming clearer. But things are clearly not good.

This is what we now know, and what we have to do about it:

Ukraine can no longer rely on US assistance. The US President wants a deal, and he wants it fast. Fast deals cost more for the buyer, but the US is not willing to foot the bill. So, ultimately, Ukraine will have to pay the price.

The US is no longer happy to be the main guarantor of security in Europe. There are talks of a partial withdrawal of troops, and a clear shift of priorities to other continents.

The current US administration does not see the EU as it once did—culturally it sees itself aligned with the movements within Europe that are interested in destruction. And this raises the very concerning question—what now are the US interests in Europe?

This is all happening at a very inconvenient time. So we have to think very seriously about how it might play out.

Here is how I think things could go from here:

There is a strong possibility that the meeting between Putin and Trump will result in agreement. Putin is in the position to ask for it all. He might demand an election, the occupied territories, and Ukrainian neutrality. All these ideas have been teased.

If Trump agrees, which he might well do, Putin will declare a complete victory. This is what he wanted to achieve and he got it, he will say. Let’s not forget that the threat of additional sanctions was mentioned only if Putin does not agree to negotiate. Oh but he will.

President Trump will dump this dead cat deal at Europe's door and say take it or leave it. Then it's up to Europe to decide whether or not to stick up for Ukraine and support rejection of the deal.

People who say that Europe must be at the table should remember that to be invited, you have to matter. If Europe commits to money, troops and a European path for Ukraine, we will make our own table and Ukraine, Putin, and Trump can be invited. But time is running out.

If Europe is unable to stand up, Ukraine will be forced to rely on itself and a smaller group of allies that continue to give support. Threats to European security will grow immensely. Putin will get braver, meaning more war in Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and beyond.

Europe is technically fully able to adapt and rise to this challenge, but the question remains one of political will, or the lack of it. Indecision will lead in only one direction, and it won’t be pretty.

China is waiting in the wings

I have always felt that China is looking for a way to emerge as the victor, and that is worryingly possible. If the US and Europe don't offer security to Ukraine, China might step into the gap, using its leverage on Russia. They could even offer a better deal than Trump's.

Ukraine has a lot to offer to China in return for security—rebuilding, ports, agricultural produce. There will be those in Europe who will support this. This gambit could be called a "Kissinger", splitting the US and Europe as Kissinger split the Soviet Union and China.

It gets worse. China as Ukraine's protector would start replacing the US in the role of keeping Russia out of the Eastern Flank. EU countries in the East would be dependent on China's protection and the racketeering would spread West.

What needs to happen to avoid this all-too-likely disaster? My hope lies with Europe, with the appearance of a leader with Churchill’s resolve, the spirit to say we will never surrender, we will defend all of Europe, from Ukraine to Portugal.

I am fully aware that my suggestion leads only to blood, toil, tears and sweat. But we have done it before and we can do it again. The alternative is to rebuild the continent after another devastating war, and that would be much harder and take much more time.

So I return from Munich to Lithuania with dark thoughts on my mind. And while I accept that the statements made by the US Vice President were the necessary medicine for a lethargic Europe, I just pray the cure doesn’t kill the patient.

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