Ukraine is right not to rush towards capitulation

Since the so-called “peace deal” was leaked to the public, Ukraine has been bombarded with advice on how to react. Most of the advisors suggest a defeatist path, either cowed by US pressure to end the conflict at all costs, or, more often, swayed by a suspiciously convenient disbelief in Europe’s ability to help Ukraine. 

And yes - the Ukrainian front is under constant pressure, Europe is still to make real commitments to continue financial support for the next year, and the ongoing corruption investigation doesn’t make life easier for President Zelenskyy, but can we say the situation really is hopeless enough to justify surrender? 

It seems to me that Ukraine has more to gain by navigating itself away from the demands for capitulation, even if that means sailing towards stormier seas.

Let us remember the existence of unknown unknowns. Since the first days of war, Ukraine has been defying the odds daily. It started with the halting of the three-day march to Kyiv, then continued with the reconquering of Kherson and Kharkiv, and so it went on. Almost every month that passed seemed like it could be the last, and there was always someone somewhere writing articles insisting that Ukraine could not go on.

But the longer Ukraine held, the more support her allies provided. Sanctions imposed against Russia grew over time. Ukrainian industry used the time to develop new methods of defending a country. Taking one step at a time, never accepting rules that were drafted by others, Ukrainians built themselves a more favourable reality. The going is tough, but Ukraine is not without options – new weapon systems are being developed, more drones are reaching the frontlines, and recently the shadow fleet tankers started burning at sea – Russia is being fed its own medicine.

Russia’s structural problems have started to affect the everyday experience of a Moscow or St Petersburg life enjoyer. The longer this continues, with Ukrainians able to put evermore pressure on the Russian economy, the more rifts will open up in urban society.

Another reason not to rush the onset of despair is this: Europeans might come around. Already now Europe is the single major supporter, taking over the burden that was previously carried by the United States. So far, there is no decision on the frozen Russian assets, but, I hope, that too can change.

Europeans have the opportunity to start shifting their attitude from one of ad hoc support to Ukraine (“because it is the right thing to do”) to one where sustained support is understood as existential to European survival. President Trump has done a lot to raise the question of European dignity. Think what you want of the continent right now, but I don’t doubt its ability to rise up to defend itself and its allies later rather than never.

As for the Maidan protestors and frontline warriors – they are unlikely to accept humiliating conditions, especially when the war is far from being lost. There are reports of soldiers declaring their intent to stay in position and disregard any agreement to turn Donbas over to the Russians, indicating that a ceasefire might be harder to impose than Western leaders would like to think. Ukraine is a democratic country and its politicians adhere to their mandate as granted by their people, not unelected outsiders.

Ukraine knows that Ukraine can only count on Ukraine.

Ukraine has heard more than its share of promises, and skepticism over “security assurances” should be understood. Giving away its nuclear stockpiles in 1992, promises of NATO membership in 2008, Minsk agreements that promised peace after the occupation of Crimea – all these grand promises proved to be empty. Ukraine knows that Ukraine can only count on Ukraine. It is even reasonable to assume that after the announcement of “peace” – Europe’s attention will drift elsewhere and Ukraine will be left vulnerable. Again the promises might turn into expressions of regret and deliveries of deep concern.

Ukrainian thinking might shift towards a ceasefire if Western soldiers were on the ground and—crucially—able  to fight alongside Ukrainians to push back on the next Russian attack, but no Western country is prepared to commit to that yet. Under these circumstances expecting Ukrainians to commit to a humiliating capitulation would be, to say the least, unfair.

And lastly let us remember the lessons of history. Any deal forced on Ukraine will only marginally differ from the notorious deal that was forced on Czechoslovakia in 1938. We all know what came of that, and nobody can explain how Donbas is any different. Nobody is ready to ensure that Russia will not go on to ask for Odesa, Kyiv and then all of Ukraine. 

The fog of diplomacy is surrounding the negotiations, but what little information seeps out allows us to piece together a picture, and it looks like Ukraine is far from hurrying to take what is being offered. But nobody can tell yet if they can hold this position for long.

As Ukraine’s darkest hour approaches, realities are becoming harder for politicians to manipulate. There’s no more pretending to stand with Ukraine “as long as it takes”, no more triumphant train rides to Kyiv. Europe’s leaders can no longer avoid confronting a stark choice – either to defend our European way of life on our European continent, or to allow it all to start collapsing on their watch.