It’s time for the Baltics to be brave like Poland

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Poland's strategic transformation in security and defense, driven by shared historical lessons and contemporary realities, provides a convenient and comprehensive model for the Baltic states to adopt, should they choose to do so. I would go further and say they have no choice.

At its core, Polish strategic thinking emphasizes the key principle that a nation must consistently prepare more intensely than its adversary to effectively deter aggression, never depending excessively on allies. Poland’s commitment to allocate 4% of its GDP to defense is driven by this core belief—that the survival of the nation in any potential conflicts is dependent on robust preparation.

In the evolving geopolitical context shaped by U.S. disengagement, Poland’s proactive stance—exploring nuclear options and demonstrating readiness for full-scale mobilization—is driven by crystal clear historic memory and real threats, rather than by political symbolism. The approach is not mere election campaign bluster, and is therefore highly relevant to the Baltic states, wherever they are in their election cycles.

Historically, Baltic states have strongly and even passionately identified with transatlantic unity, viewing it almost as a constitutional principle. However, the Baltic region now faces the stark realization that reliance on traditional transatlantic security assurances can no longer be the keystone of their defense policy. Far from it.