Europe’s summer charm offensive has failed

2025 started with JD Vance making his famous “stepping up” speech in Munich, and alarm bells started ringing. Now it’s autumn, a good time to review European diplomatic achievements so far this year.

Unfortunately — Europe didn’t even wake up, let alone step up.

Europe instead based its summer security strategy on three pillars:

1. Appeasing President Trump.

This pillar can be summarised as paying and praying — paying with tariffs and promises of equipment purchases and worshipping Trump with pilgrimages to DC, video calls and public declarations of devotion.

2. Hoping that Putin will be satisfied with what he currently has.

This has been expressed in announcements by European leaders suggesting that brutal realities might force Ukraine to cede territories to Putin, using Baltic or Finnish historical examples. Nothing points to Putin being satisfied with that, but ok, hope springs eternal.

3. Praying that Ukrainians will not get tired

An essential component of the European inaction plan is that Ukrainians will continue fighting for both Ukraine and Europe, while Europe finishes its Aperol spritz and figures things out.

Now what?

When the United States announced the cancellation of the Baltic Security Initiative, many were shocked. I was more shocked at how much time we wasted praying that things would magically improve, rather than heeding the warnings and making preparations for this inevitable scenario.

So now what? Now we have to prepare for a reduction of US troops in Europe, likely in very significant numbers. And yes, it is possible that troops will be withdrawn from the Baltic region. What else should we be prepared for? Simply what has already been said: Ukraine will most likely be left without US assistance. Russia will no longer be sanctioned because of changes in US strategic calculations. Europe will have to face the Russian threat on its own. And frontline countries will have to figure out a plan B, to resist and win in a post-American Europe.

This should not come as a surprise, because we were warned long ago. If we wasted time, that’s on us. As the saying goes: The best times to stop wasting time are ten years ago, and today.

And if there is a question about how this should look in practice — look no further than Ukraine. President Zelenskyy might be saying many thank yous, wearing a suit and solemnly praising the American administration, but… at the same time, Ukraine has launched its biggest air raids on Russian oil refineries, reducing oil output by about 20 percent.

Europe is simply increasing the volume of its rhetoric as two of the three pillars of its 2025 strategy crumble. Meanwhile, Ukraine is introducing new weapons that will strengthen its position even further. Ukraine is talking softly AND developing a range of new sticks. Of course, Ukrainians would rather fight alongside Americans and Europeans, but even if Europeans and Americans are unwilling — Ukrainians are showing what they can achieve on their own.

Time to be brave like Ukraine

Europe, which has lost its belief in its own ability to fight any war, should be inspired by Ukraine and follow her shining example. If a country of fewer than 40 million people can keep stepping up further, even after three years of war, surely similar progress could be made by pooling the wealth of the EU’s 450 million inhabitants?

Ukraine has a plan, and plans to fight. Europe’s plans A, B and C have not stopped the fighting. Putin simply has no need to stop, and quite probably lacks the ability to reverse direction at this point. As we say in Lithuania — all this should be obvious even to a horse.

Therefore, Europe now has to develop a plan D for nothing less than Ukraine’s and Europe’s survival. And to paraphrase Churchill — if necessary, we will have to survive alone, even if we receive no support from our transatlantic cousins. 

It is time to admit that our summer charm offensive didn’t work as well as hoped. This means it’s time to face the hard reality of the still-approaching war which we have failed to avoid with speeches alone. However hard we keep praying for a miracle to stop us sinking, we must finally start rowing for the shore.