Europe again embraces unforced errors that help the wrong side.

While everyone’s eyes are glued to this week’s war in Iran, Ukraine has defied doubters again, emerging from the winter with a more positive outlook.

It is difficult to be certain how the front line is moving, mostly because there is a 20-kilometre kill zone where drones from both sides destroy almost everyone who enters. But the front is far more stable than last year. Not only that, but Ukrainian forces also recaptured more territory than Russia gained, the first net Ukrainian gain in Ukraine proper since the 2023 counteroffensive.

And all this happened during the most difficult winter in Ukrainian history.

The Russian economy is clearly struggling. Payouts to recruits in the far-flung regions are being cut — even if Russians claim it’s because service has simply become popular. After four years of war and more than a million killed or seriously wounded, one might ask: are they sure they’re not lying?

To mask their economic difficulties, Russians are cooking the books. German intelligence just announced that Russia’s budget deficit is not 2.6% as previously claimed, but 3.6%. Yes – a sure sign of things going wonderfully.

The pressure on Ukraine to accept capitulation has eased somewhat, as the US is now preoccupied elsewhere. And there have been at least a couple of very daring Ukrainian operations against Russian oil export hubs and naval ports – a signal that Kyiv is not waiting around.

Ukraine has the wind at its back. Especially now that the European Union has confirmed the €90 billion loan package. Surely, after the frozen assets fiasco almost turned into a disaster, nobody wants to disrupt the growing momentum for victory? Right?

Which brings us to the money.

After failing to agree on using frozen assets, Europeans formed a coalition of the willing – using the power of common European borrowing to raise €90 billion for Ukraine over two years. A small note: the reason it is a coalition rather than a full EU instrument is that Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic asked to be excluded. The first tranche was due to reach Ukraine in April.

With 40 days until Hungarian elections and sagging poll ratings, the Hungarian government decided to block the transfer—even though it is not Hungarian money—by conditioning its vote on Ukraine “fixing” the Druzhba pipeline that carries Russian oil to Budapest. On January 27th, Russia struck the pipeline again, leaving it damaged. So in effect, Ukrainians can only unlock existential EU funding if they repair and defend a pipeline under constant Russian attack.

But that is only part of the story.

European Union officials have apparently been active – just not where you would expect. Instead of pressing Hungary, they are pressuring Ukraine to sort out the pipeline, because confronting Budapest requires too much political effort.

Let’s be clear about what is happening here. The pressure is not being put on the Hungarian government. It is being put on the Ukrainian government — because it is far easier to lean on the side that is already under pressure. That requires no political capital, no diplomatic creativity, no real courage.

What makes this even sadder is that Putin has agreed to release a couple of Hungarian-Ukrainian POWs — thereby giving Orbán a small electoral gift just weeks before the vote. 

The inability to rein in a Hungary that has effectively hijacked European geopolitical ambition is damaging enough on its own. But actively pressing Ukraine to comply is simply disgraceful, even (especially) if you offer to pay for the compliance.

The collective power of all those in Brussels should be used to block the ambitions of people like Putin and Orbán, not to twist the arms of Ukrainians while they’re fighting on Europe’s behalf.