Welcome, my first 1000 subscribers
The bad news is: Tomorrow’s world will not be safer, more democratic, or more rational.
If we are looking for parallels in history, 2024 most closely resembles 1938, and unfortunately this is no longer a wild exaggeration. A new Munich Agreement is being drafted and the aggressor, despite all hopes that he can be appeased, is very likely to continue his advance after pretending to make concessions.
Despite our warnings, the people we trusted to keep us safe have, let’s say, performed at suboptimal levels. It feels like we are stuck in a taxi that keeps taking wrong turns, but the driver isn’t listening, and he won’t let us get out.
Ukraine, unfortunately, will likely be denied the increased support they are requesting to strengthen their position on the battlefield, and most likely there will be no real security guarantees after the war. The world will become an even more dangerous place.
The US might miss this historic opportunity to retain its position as the leader of the free world, and the EU is too fractured to stand strong in the face of strategic dangers posed to the continent.
Russia will take all this as a clear sign of western weakness and a sign that they are allowed to rebuild and continue.
This leaves front line countries like mine in a dire situation, exposed and vulnerable, things escalating all around us and the foreseeable outcomes continuing to be unforeseen by those who have the power to change course. Without that change, the territory of this situation will only expand.
Current suggestions for “peace” would suppress Ukraine’s recovery but not reduce Russia’s appetite. Instead of waiting for another flawed “peace process” to fail disastrously, we must act now and present our case for Ukraine’s victory. We must keep showing decision makers that their current strategy leaves their allies at the mercy of imperialist powers, just as it did in 1938. The values of rules-based justice, self-determination and sovereignty must be defended like never before, so we avoid taking the same terrible wrong turns twice.
The good news is: It’s still not too late.
We still live in peaceful democracies, therefore we still have the means and the ability to make changes happen. I am inviting you all to become part of the solution, united and stronger than those who are threatening our freedom.
Here’s some things we can do to make tomorrow turn out less terrible than it looks today.
Georgia
Russia is keen on regaining its foothold in the Southern Caucasus and the current Georgian government provides the best opportunity for just that. Again, very unfortunately, Europe is too divided and obsessed with internal issues, seemingly ready to “let Georgia go” rather than to fight alongside its people to keep their country on the European path.
We must support the protests in any way we can, keep up the pressure on European leaders and keep Georgia on everybody’s minds. See my response to the recent Georgian Dream attack on Lithuania and Estonia here.
Events in Syria clearly show that Russia can be pushed out. It happened there it can (and must) happen in Georgia too.
Ukraine
The lie about Ukraine is that victory is impossible. Ukraine could be given all the weapons needed for victory and this discussion would be over, but while the discussion continues – we must bust the dangerous myth that defending our values is impossible. We must also shatter the illusion that capitulation to a war criminal would save anybody from anything. Repeat daily. And most importantly we cannot remain silent when we see a huge betrayal happening in front of our eyes. Forcing Ukraine to give in to Russia is a betrayal not just of Ukraine but of every one of us who supported Ukraine in its struggle. Let this be known far and wide.
Developments will be closely monitored by all the main actors who might use momentum to further their agendas. China will be more assertive, Taiwan and other countries in the Indo Pacific will be more vulnerable.
Russia
There is no need to care about what happens in Russia itself, but an undefeated Russia would continue to be very dangerous. The only sensible plan is to make Europe safe from Russia, protected whatever happens in Russia, independent economically from Russia, resilient whoever runs Russia.
Russia can and must be defeated everywhere they attack – first and foremost in Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. They must be defeated in their shadow war in the Baltic States and beyond. They must also be defeated in the world information war, instead of being allowed to invade and occupy our networks and our minds.
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