The Art of Lukashenko's Deal in Belarus

It is important to celebrate the release of 14 political prisoners from Belarus, including Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya's husband Siarhei Tsikhanouski. But let’s not forget that for Lukashenko, political prisoners are just hostages or bargaining chips. Whenever possible, he seeks to extract the highest possible price for them.

This has been his consistent pattern in Belarus since the early 2000s: first a wave of repression, then the arrests of opponents, then the West announces some sanctions. After some time, a few prisoners are released, sanctions are eased and most importantly — Luksahenko’s political legitimacy is strengthened. And he repeats this cycle every few years, topping up his reputation as a gatekeeper that the West must engage with. 

Since the stolen 2020 election, sanctions have been imposed in several waves: first, in response to the brutal post-election repressions, then for the hijacking of a Ryanair flight in May 2021 and most recently for complicity in Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. 

The most painful, and therefore effective sanctions have been those targeting the potash sector — specifically the state-owned company Belaruskali. Potash is Belarus’s most valuable export, and Belaruskali has long served as Lukashenko’s personal slush fund.

The most convenient export route for land-locked Belarus runs through Lithuania, whose railways and ports offer the shortest path to the sea. Lithuania insists, rightly, that facilitating Belarusian trade contradicts its national security interests, and has imposed sanctions at the national level. This means that even if US and EU sanctions were lifted, it would be impossible for Lukashenko to export his potash, or anything else, via Lithuanian roads, rail and ice-free port.

And so, it should be obvious to us that Lukashenko is opening up his playbook again, offering to trade prisoners (hostages) for sanctions relief that would be hugely lucrative for his regime and for him personally. 

To anyone blinded by the release of 14 prisoners and considering easing sanctions, here’s three reminders:

First and foremost, over a thousand political prisoners remain behind bars in Belarus, meaning that Lukashenko released less than 2% of them. Secondly, Lukashenko has still not been held accountable for hijacking a civilian passenger flight, or for the illegal migration wave that he organised. Most people have forgotten this happened, perhaps because it sounds like something out of a bad movie, not possible in reality. Thirdly, Lukashenko continues to aid and abet Russia’s horrific war against Ukraine. 

And while many in the world are focused on Iran, it is worth recalling a few facts on that topic:

• In March 2023, Belarus and Iran signed a long-term defense cooperation roadmap covering drones, missiles, cyber, and logistics.

• In July 2023, Belarus’s defense minister signed a memorandum in Tehran to explore Shahed-style drone production.

• On July 3, 2024, Belarus showcased these drones — Shahed‑136s rebranded as “Nomad” or “Kochevnik” — in its Independence Day parade, falsely claiming they were domestically developed.

Tel Aviv and Kyiv are bombarded using the very same drones, most of them produced in the very same factories. Lukashenko is very much part of the gang. 

I am relieved that the 14 Belarusian political prisoners are no longer behind bars. But that must not become an excuse to abandon all logic and give in to this dictator’s age-old games. There is no reason to march to his repetitive tune for another decade, and another.

Europe must not cave in to Lukashenko’s cynical demands for sanction relief, and Lithuania must of course hold the line on threats to its national security.

Lithuania’s allies should be offering equal treatment to all representatives of the axis of chaos. Nobody is hugging Khameini, and nobody should be hugging Lukashenko.