Trump's Dead Cat Deal

Nobody should be surprised if the US dumps a dead cat deal at Europe’s door. Trump might simply tell Europe to “take it or leave it”. Sadly, it is not currently apparent that Europe is ready to be put in this dilemma. But ready or not, leave it we must.

Europe would face a historic choice—either defend international law by continuing to support the victim whatever it takes, or attempt to retain US support in the rest of Europe by abandoning part of, or all of, Ukraine.

This choice would be far more difficult than many expect. Europe does not feel ready and we do not yet believe we have what it takes to defend either Ukraine or ourselves. Meanwhile, Putin is continuing to threaten WWIII if Europe stands by Ukraine with more than words. These threats, although empty, continue to hypnotise and paralyse.

There will be those who argue, cynically, that Ukraine is not our fight. They’ve said it before, and now they will have a new argument: we cannot risk losing US protection over some kind of Eastern European “territorial dispute”.

Others may suggest Europe pretends to take the deal to buy some time. But that is a false hope. Plenty of time was already given to us—Ukraine heroically and tragically bought us three years to prepare. Unfortunately we didn’t use it. It is likely that the extra time would be used to kick the can further down the road.
But what’s more—taking the deal, even as a delaying tactic, would mean selling out Ukraine.

Selling out would be the perfect example of Churchill’s warning about “feeding the crocodile”. No matter how many of your friends you feed to your enemy, he will come for you eventually. It’s only a matter of time. Selling out would merely initiate the slow suicide of Europe.

We must do whatever we can, now, because there will be no magical Plan B that leaves our freedoms intact without sacrifice. Defence requires defence. Whatever tools we have, we must use them. Whatever decisions we should have made earlier, we must make them now. The enemy will not wait patiently until we figure this out.

Right now, today, we face a decision that will define the future of Europe. Either we grit our teeth and fight for the cities, skies, trenches and beaches of Ukraine, or we wave the white flag of shameful surrender, throw our friends to the crocodile and cower behind a bush until our own countries appear on the menu.