# Gabrielius Landsbergis > Homepage of Gabrielius Landsbergis, Former Foreign Affairs Minister of Lithuania | Pro-democratic policy initiatives and advocacy in international relations Public Ghost content for AI and LLM tooling. This file includes a bounded export of public pages first, then recent public posts. Append `.md` to any post or page URL to get the content in Markdown (for example, `/example-post.md`). ## Pages ### Hello. URL: https://landsbergis.com/about/ Last updated: 2025-11-25T22:10:35.000Z ### I am Gabrielius Landsbergis and I refuse to de-escalate. Follow me on [Twitter](https://x.com/GLandsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com), [Linkedin](https://www.linkedin.com/in/glandsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com), [Substack](https://substack.com/@glandsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com), [Instagram](https://www.instagram.com/glandsbergis/?ref=landsbergis.com) and [Bluesky](https://bsky.app/profile/glandsbergis.bsky.social?ref=landsbergis.com). Email me: **gabrielius@landsbergis.com** To book Gabrielius Landsbergis please [contact](mailto:agent@championsukplc.com) his agent at [Champions](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) [Book Gabrielius Landsbergis ](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) --- ### Fighting for freedom Freedom runs in my family, and in the families of my fellow Lithuanians. We have been freedom fighting for generations, and not about to stop any time soon. Tragically, it looks like we are now in another period of existential struggle, together with the entire democratic world. In my time as Foreign Affairs Minister, I made sure that Lithuania became known globally as a standard-bearer in the fight for freedom and rule of law, providing huge support to Ukraine and expanding connections in the Indo-Pacific, among many other initiatives in support of democracy wherever it was under threat. My values-based approach to foreign policy was never the easiest way, sometimes it was impossible. But it was not naïve. We see clearly today, that the survival of our freedoms relies on strong defence of our values and our borders, by means of war if necessary, never choosing dishonour, always aiming for victory, handing down a free world to our children, whatever it takes. Evil never rests, so I'm not resting either. [Subscribe](https://landsbergis.com/about/#/portal/) and join me in the fight! ### Biography 2025-2026 Bernard and Susan Liautaud Visiting Fellow at Stanford University 2020-2024 Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Lithuania 2016-2024 Member of the Lithuanian Parliament 2015-2024 Chairman of the Homeland Union Party of Lithuania 2014-2016 Member of the European Parliament 2002-2013 Diplomat, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Lithuania 2005 International Relations MA, Vilnius University 2003 History BA, Vilnius University ### Awards ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/46/1646b851-f8fd-48ff-9390-fa25f8de699d/content/images/2025/09/gabrielius_taiwan.jpg) - **Magnitsky Human Rights Award** for Outstanding Contribution Magnitsky Justice Campaign · Nov 2025 - **Global Economy Prize** Kiel Institute · Jun 2025 > “Gabrielius Landsbergis is an extremely far-sighted foreign policy strategist, an outstanding analyst of geopolitical issues and a convinced European. As Foreign Minister of Lithuania, he was an early advocate of responding proactively to Russia's invasion of Ukraine with a policy of deterrence and of taking all measures necessary to help Ukraine achieve victory. Thanks to his foresight and determined analysis, he quickly helped Lithuania to become a highly respected voice in NATO.” - **Order of the Star** Romania · May 2025 - **Cross of MeritCross of Merit** Estonian Foreign Ministry · Nov 2024 - **Transatlantic Leadership Award** CEPA · Sep 2024 - **Order of the Brilliant Star with Special Grand Cordon** Taiwan · Jan 2024 - **Order of Prince Yaroslav the Wise, 3rd class** Ukraine · Aug 2022 ### Contact URL: https://landsbergis.com/contact/ Last updated: 2025-09-08T12:05:52.000Z ## Press enquiries gabrielius@landsbergis.com ## Bookings To book Gabrielius Landsbergis please [contact](mailto:agent@championsukplc.com) his agent at [Champions](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) [Book Gabrielius Landsbergis ](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) ## Socials Follow Gabrielius on [Twitter](https://x.com/GLandsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com), [Linkedin](https://www.linkedin.com/in/glandsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com), [Substack](https://substack.com/@glandsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com), [Instagram](https://www.instagram.com/glandsbergis/?ref=landsbergis.com) and [Bluesky](https://bsky.app/profile/glandsbergis.bsky.social?ref=landsbergis.com). ## Newsletter ## Sign up for my free newsletter We fight for freedom together! Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. ### Work URL: https://landsbergis.com/work/ Last updated: 2025-11-25T22:43:35.000Z Follow me on [Twitter](https://x.com/GLandsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com), [Linkedin](https://www.linkedin.com/in/glandsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com), [Substack](https://substack.com/@glandsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com), [Instagram](https://www.instagram.com/glandsbergis/?ref=landsbergis.com) and [Bluesky](https://bsky.app/profile/glandsbergis.bsky.social?ref=landsbergis.com). To book Gabrielius Landsbergis please [contact](mailto:agent@championsukplc.com) his agent at [Champions](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) [Book Gabrielius Landsbergis ](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) ## Articles > [**Europe’s Future Depends on Confrontation, Not Compromise**](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/08/03/europe-future-authoritarianism-00490010?ref=landsbergis.com) > with Garry Kasparov for POLITICO [Europe’s Pearl Harbor Moment Might Come Too LateFormer Lithuanian Foreign Minister: The first shots of the next Great War could be fired in my country.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/46/1646b851-f8fd-48ff-9390-fa25f8de699d/content/images/icon/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2Fdef422f8-39b0-49c9-a7bb-34f0d3fc285b-2Fapple-touch-icon-180x180.png)The Next MoveGabrielius Landsbergis![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/46/1646b851-f8fd-48ff-9390-fa25f8de699d/content/images/thumbnail/https-3A-2F-2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com-2Fpublic-2Fimages-2Fa5a62edf-b507-40bd-8fe5-99fb1884df02_1260x900.jpeg)](https://www.thenextmove.org/p/europes-pearl-harbor-moment-might?ref=landsbergis.com) [On the plight of the unbombed farmers of Eastern EuropeFarmers are, understandably, demanding safeguards and compensation. The efficient and fair way to achieve that is by accepting Ukraine as a full EU member.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/46/1646b851-f8fd-48ff-9390-fa25f8de699d/content/images/icon/favicon-512x512-2.png)POLITICOGabrielius Landsbergis![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/46/1646b851-f8fd-48ff-9390-fa25f8de699d/content/images/thumbnail/12008886-scaled-1.jpg)](https://www.politico.eu/article/eastern-europe-ukraine-eu-russia-invasion-war-poland-farmers/?ref=landsbergis.com) [Ukraine will win — with or without our permissionIf we’re really standing with Ukrainians, our role is to support their choices. None of us may claim the right or authority to tell them when and what to surrender.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/46/1646b851-f8fd-48ff-9390-fa25f8de699d/content/images/icon/favicon-512x512-3.png)POLITICOGabrielius Landsbergis![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/46/1646b851-f8fd-48ff-9390-fa25f8de699d/content/images/thumbnail/Gabrielius-Landsbergis-scaled-1.jpg)](https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-will-win-with-or-without-our-permission/?ref=landsbergis.com) ## Tweets ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/46/1646b851-f8fd-48ff-9390-fa25f8de699d/content/images/2024/12/Screenshot_20241216_182901_X.jpg) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/46/1646b851-f8fd-48ff-9390-fa25f8de699d/content/images/2024/12/Screenshot_20241216_184051_X.jpg) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/46/1646b851-f8fd-48ff-9390-fa25f8de699d/content/images/2024/12/Screenshot_20241216_182459_X.jpg) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/46/1646b851-f8fd-48ff-9390-fa25f8de699d/content/images/2024/12/Screenshot_20241216_182604_X.jpg) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/46/1646b851-f8fd-48ff-9390-fa25f8de699d/content/images/2024/12/Screenshot_20241216_182009_X.jpg) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/46/1646b851-f8fd-48ff-9390-fa25f8de699d/content/images/2024/12/Screenshot_20241216_182233_X.jpg) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/46/1646b851-f8fd-48ff-9390-fa25f8de699d/content/images/2024/12/Screenshot_20241216_182255_X.jpg) ## Threads > During the Munich conference I was asked why I am so gloomy. Well, somebody has to tell it like it is, so here’s how it is: Things are not going well. 🧵 [pic.twitter.com/NPu3y9SnP3](https://t.co/NPu3y9SnP3?ref=landsbergis.com) > > — Gabrielius Landsbergis🇱🇹 (@GLandsbergis) [February 18, 2024](https://twitter.com/GLandsbergis/status/1759271051177943311?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=landsbergis.com) > For years the West said economic cooperation would persuade dictators to support rules based international order. But all we did was feed their economies while letting them break all the rules. China is betting that we will repeat this mistake. It's time to try something else👇🧵 > > — Gabrielius Landsbergis🇱🇹 (@GLandsbergis) [April 12, 2023](https://twitter.com/GLandsbergis/status/1646126900841000963?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=landsbergis.com) > Nice stories don’t win wars. Without significant deliveries of weapons and real security guarantees the glorious narrative of unity and solidarity with Ukraine is wearing thin and rapidly approaching cynicism. 🧵👇 > > — Gabrielius Landsbergis🇱🇹 (@GLandsbergis) [April 4, 2024](https://twitter.com/GLandsbergis/status/1775896166053625992?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=landsbergis.com) > The peacemongers have failed. > Escalation was not managed, conflicts were not contained, people were not protected, laws were not respected. Now I hear victory is "unrealistic" and not even worth fighting for. But I see things very differently, and here's why. 👇🧵1/10 > > — Gabrielius Landsbergis🇱🇹 (@GLandsbergis) [November 5, 2024](https://twitter.com/GLandsbergis/status/1853849440773181576?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=landsbergis.com) > Will the EU listen to the people of Georgia and choose hope? Or will we discard our European values and compromise? > I have a lot to process after visiting Tbilisi. I will try to lay it all out in this thread. 🧵👇 [pic.twitter.com/jp0vPnhVBb](https://t.co/jp0vPnhVBb?ref=landsbergis.com) > > — Gabrielius Landsbergis🇱🇹 (@GLandsbergis) [May 16, 2024](https://twitter.com/GLandsbergis/status/1791139840467017969?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=landsbergis.com) > We declare red lines for ourselves, but not for Russia. We publicly tie our own hands while leaving Putin free to pillage, rape and destroy. We create strategic transparency, not strategic ambiguity. It's time to change course. 🧵 > > — Gabrielius Landsbergis🇱🇹 (@GLandsbergis) [February 28, 2024](https://twitter.com/GLandsbergis/status/1762891942176710988?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=landsbergis.com) ### Video URL: https://landsbergis.com/video/ Last updated: 2025-09-08T11:17:22.000Z Here are some of my appearances at events and on TV. To book Gabrielius Landsbergis please [contact](mailto:agent@championsukplc.com) his agent at [Champions](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) [Book Gabrielius Landsbergis ](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) 0:00 /1:50 1× HARDtalk, BBC, 2024 May 9th 0:00 /0:52 1× Sky News, 2024 December 8th 0:00 /1:06 1× CNN, 2024 July 11th 0:00 /2:03 1× Bloomberg, 2024 September 7th ## Sign up for Gabrielius Landsbergis Gabrielius Landsbergis, Former Foreign Affairs Minister of Lithuania Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. 0:00 /1:16 1× My last doorstep at the Foreign Affairs Council, 2024 November 18th 0:00 /0:52 1× Helsinki Commission, 2024 December 5th 0:00 /2:02 1× Warsaw Security Forum, 2024 October 3rd 0:00 /0:21 1× NATO 75th Summit, Washington, 2024 July 11th 0:00 /1:43 1× Chatham House, "Safeguarding Europe", 2024 December 10th 0:00 /1:24 1× The Rīga Conference, 2024 October 17th ### Podcast URL: https://landsbergis.com/podcast/ Last updated: 2025-09-08T11:16:45.000Z ### Welcome to Escalation with Gabrielius Landsbergis. Escalation is a series of conversations with experts that help us understand the new geopolitics, and how we can make democracy great again. Well known for his values-based approach to foreign policy, Gabrielius Landsbergis is a tireless campaigner for rule of law and peace through strength. Enjoy the show! ### Subscribe to Escalation on: [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/@glandsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com), [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/2wCWkxnpQGwj4qE41tk7U2?ref=landsbergis.com) and [Apple](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/escalation-with-gabrielius-landsbergis/id1791398669?ref=landsbergis.com) ### To book Gabrielius Landsbergis please [contact](mailto:agent@championsukplc.com) his agent at [Champions](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) [Book Gabrielius Landsbergis ](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) --- > Join Friends of Democracy and support my work [Join now](#/portal/signup) ### Bookings URL: https://landsbergis.com/bookings/ Last updated: 2025-09-08T11:13:56.000Z To book Gabrielius Landsbergis please [contact](mailto:agent@championsukplc.com) his agent at [Champions](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) [Book Gabrielius Landsbergis ](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/46/1646b851-f8fd-48ff-9390-fa25f8de699d/content/images/2025/09/1748543603241-1-1.jpeg) > +442071010553 > [agent@championsukplc.com](mailto:agent@championsukplc.com) > [champions-speakers.co.uk](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) ### Portraits URL: https://landsbergis.com/portraits/ Last updated: 2025-09-08T11:19:49.000Z All photos released for commercial use, please credit the photographer. [This work ](https://landsbergis.com/press)© 2024 by [Mindaugas Mikulėnas ](https://www.instagram.com/kilimas%5Farts?ref=landsbergis.com)is licensed under [CC BY-SA 4.0 ](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/?ref=chooser-v1) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/46/1646b851-f8fd-48ff-9390-fa25f8de699d/content/images/2024/12/2024_11_15_GL_Mindaugo_Mikuleno_nuotr-31-2.jpg) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/46/1646b851-f8fd-48ff-9390-fa25f8de699d/content/images/2024/12/2024_11_15_GL_Mindaugo_Mikuleno_nuotr-27-3.jpg) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/46/1646b851-f8fd-48ff-9390-fa25f8de699d/content/images/2024/12/2024_11_15_GL_Mindaugo_Mikuleno_nuotr-30-2.jpg) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/46/1646b851-f8fd-48ff-9390-fa25f8de699d/content/images/2024/12/2024_11_15_GL_Mindaugo_Mikuleno_nuotr-48-2.jpg) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/46/1646b851-f8fd-48ff-9390-fa25f8de699d/content/images/2024/12/2024_11_15_GL_Mindaugo_Mikuleno_nuotr-56-2.jpg) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/46/1646b851-f8fd-48ff-9390-fa25f8de699d/content/images/2024/12/2024_11_15_GL_Mindaugo_Mikuleno_nuotr-70-2.jpg) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/46/1646b851-f8fd-48ff-9390-fa25f8de699d/content/images/2024/12/2024_11_15_GL_Mindaugo_Mikuleno_nuotr-46-2.jpg) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/46/1646b851-f8fd-48ff-9390-fa25f8de699d/content/images/2024/12/2024_11_15_GL_Mindaugo_Mikuleno_nuotr-66-1.jpg) Photos: Mindaugas Mikulėnas To book Gabrielius Landsbergis please [contact](mailto:agent@championsukplc.com) his agent at [Champions](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) [Book Gabrielius Landsbergis ](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) ## Posts ### Real Implications of NATO 3.0 for Ukraine and Europe URL: https://landsbergis.com/real-implications-of-nato-3-0-for-ukraine-and-europe/ Last updated: 2026-08-10T13:11:41.000Z Since releasing my article about the need for JEF 2.0 in response to Elbridge Colby's NATO 3.0, I had the chance to discuss the concept with the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on their Stop The World podcast. Here's the original article ICYMI: [Elbridge Colby’s NATO 3.0 means Europe needs JEF 2.0A coalition not only of the willing, but also the ready and able, is exactly what Europe now needs.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/46/1646b851-f8fd-48ff-9390-fa25f8de699d/content/images/icon/gabrielius_landsbergis_g_1200x1200-1-47f7ce9c-c315-4b26-8f1c-694bdcf1441f.png)Gabrielius LandsbergisGabrielius Landsbergis![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/46/1646b851-f8fd-48ff-9390-fa25f8de699d/content/images/thumbnail/colbyfacebook-32855b59-023d-4e10-b1ba-47c88bdd9125.jpg)](https://landsbergis.com/elbridge-colbys-nato-3-0-means-europe-needs-jef-2-0/) The Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) already exists as "a British-led mini-NATO" uniting the northern European countries most in favour of deterring Russia. The JEF is intended to be the first responder in the event of an attack, regardless of any possible deadlock with NATO members' vetoes. It seems likely that US assistance would be slow to arrive, if it arrived at all, which is why Europe has been unsubtly trying to sacrifice part of Ukraine "for stability", rather than deterring the Moscow-based initiator of the instability, or leaping into action to close the skies above Ukraine. I am often asked what I actually want European leaders to be doing to counter expansionist Russia, and in this interview we think I covered pretty much every angle. I hope you enjoy the discussion and can share with colleagues who need a concise summary of the current geopolitical situation for Europe and Ukraine. If you appreciated this article and you would like to support our work, join Friends of Democracy today! [Sign up and support ](#/portal/signup?ref=appreciated) To book Gabrielius Landsbergis please [contact](mailto:agent@championsukplc.com) his agent at [Champions](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) [Book Gabrielius Landsbergis ](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) ### Elbridge Colby's NATO 3.0 means Europe needs JEF 2.0 URL: https://landsbergis.com/elbridge-colbys-nato-3-0-means-europe-needs-jef-2-0/ Last updated: 2026-07-22T14:14:24.000Z When the Pentagon's policy chief Elbridge Colby first coined the term “NATO 3.0” — a security concept that "requires much greater efforts by our allies to step up and assume primary responsibility for the conventional defense of Europe" — nobody really knew how it was going to work, or if this was even a real shift. But evolution has always been the norm. NATO 1.0 was born out of the American interest to contain the greatest threat to American security — the Soviet Union — and to ensure peace on the European continent. Over time, transatlantic cooperation became much more than mere containment. The alliance was glued together by shared values that allowed it to rebuild Europe, providing stability and economic growth. With time it also became a force projection vehicle for the United States. And after the end of the Cold War NATO 2.0 allowed all of Europe, east and west, to unify in a single secure space. Throughout the following decades the threats and our perceptions shifted. Russia is no longer the Soviet Union. The threat of terrorism came and faded away. Today, the biggest threat is arguably from a revisionist Russia, or from a failure to adapt and react to it. Putin is already escalating all over Europe, this time with sub-conventional means — attempted assassinations, cable cuttings, arson attempts and, as of late, armed drone incursions in the Baltics. Being cornered in Ukraine, he might be tempted to test NATO's Eastern Flank and in that way challenge the decades-long transatlantic commitment to collective security. If Putin were successful, the European security architecture would be demolished and the West's credibility to defend its allies would be left in tatters. The fact that the concept of NATO 3.0 is being put forward right now should tell Europeans that America’s interests in European security have shifted dramatically. The National Security Strategy, released late last year, points out that Russia should be diplomatically managed rather than contained. And despite the ongoing war on the European continent, the document does not name Russia as a threat worthy of attention. That should tell us that NATO 3.0 is no longer a suggested direction, it is very much a reality and Europeans are being left mostly on their own. If you are enjoying this article and you would like to support our work, join Friends of Democracy today! [Sign up and support ](#/portal/signup?ref=appreciatedmid) Elbridge Colby, in his book "The Strategy of Denial", writes that if the Baltic States are attacked, the United States will come to European aid only after the threat of China has been contained. To a pessimist (or realist), this could also mean a very, very long time between the initial attack and the US coming to Europe's aid. Colby implies that the US is still interested in European security, but is unable to devote the resources needed to deter attacks. But what if the US were no longer interested? What if a political settlement with concessions on Europe's part were something that the administration started to pursue? I am not saying that there is no chance that the US would come to Europe’s aid — it did come twice over the last century. It is just that living in this uncertainty is becoming too dangerous. The most dramatic loss caused by the shift is with regard to deterrence. Every tweet from the US administration about the weak Europeans, every hint of unwillingness to uphold Article 5, and every news report about the troop withdrawal or removal of American commanders from NATO structures sends a signal to Putin that the security environment in Europe is weakening. For Russian military strategists, NATO 3.0 is a gift. It solves one of the greatest strategic dilemmas for Russians wishing to redraw European borders — the US is no longer seen as an obstacle in this endeavour. The only remaining question in their minds is: will Europeans be divided, leaderless and slow enough to facilitate their own defeat? In other words, are Europeans now unable to meaningfully resist further Russian escalations? ## Time for JEF 2.0 Instead of clinging to their nostalgic past, Europeans need to be ready to meet the Russian challenge in a way that deters Russia from attacking Europe in the first place, even in the absence of US backup. First of all, Europe needs to start building a post-transatlantic security environment. The threat to Eastern Flank security has direct security implications not just for the smaller European countries in the East, but also for Germany, the United Kingdom and France. It would fall primarily on the shoulders of these countries to lay out the strengthened deterrence plan for the Eastern Flank. Since Colby’s NATO 3.0 arrangement is untested in battle and could be paralysed in the face of a real contingency without US guidance, an alternative structure is needed. Where Europeans should look for a solution is the British-led JEF. It is built to be a first responder in the Eastern European contingency, working in parallel with NATO. Relying solely on old NATO structures is becoming untenable, and expectations that the European Union will create its own security architecture are low. That is why a coalition not only of the willing, but also the ready and able, is exactly what Europe now needs — a structure that would be capable of responding to a threat quickly and decisively. Indeed, the structure could go beyond JEF and expand to include other European countries. Poland and Germany top the list. If, for some reason, the United Kingdom were unwilling to use JEF for this purpose, a new structure — maybe Polish-, French- or German-led — should be created instead. To deter effectively, resources from this new European defence structure need to preposition in the East. From troops to equipment, most of what would be needed for the first days of fighting should be located as close to the battlefield as possible. It is dangerous to rely only on intelligence and perfect logistics — prepositioning would enable Europe to fight on day one, giving Russia much less time to achieve its objectives before the cavalry arrives. During the Cold War, some 400,000 American troops were stationed in Europe to guard NATO's border with the Warsaw Pact countries. Now a task of similar magnitude is mostly carried out by the Eastern Flank countries themselves, and that might not be enough to make Putin think twice about doing something stupid. An important and in fact critical component is this: European security structure is no longer viable without Ukraine. Ukrainians have the largest, most battlefield-experienced army in Europe, a formidable and growing military industry, and, most importantly, a doctrine of fighting a war against Russia without US support. Theirs is exactly the scenario the rest of Europe is facing. The debate about Ukraine joining NATO has led nowhere, but the fact remains that Ukraine would be a huge asset to her allies in any defence organisation she chose to join. A JEF-like structure that includes Ukraine would allow the most enthusiastic Europeans to accelerate cooperation in Ukraine’s defence while also strengthening European deterrence, acting as a multiplier for both hard and soft power. Russians might be right in thinking Europeans are not prepared for a drone war today, but in a formal, coherent and powerful alliance with Ukrainians — things would be very different tomorrow. The trillion dollar question — will willing Europeans actually unite and do this? There is no reason to think they lack capacity. Ukraine is already doing most of the hard work on her own, so I am sure a structure containing larger and richer countries would have enough resources to be able to help out. The framework already exists, ready to be built on, making it a very attractive and practical option. Choosing this option should be easy, because if Europeans want to remain safe, prosperous and free — there is no other option. If you appreciated this article and you would like to support our work, join Friends of Democracy today! [Sign up and support ](#/portal/signup?ref=appreciated) To book Gabrielius Landsbergis please [contact](mailto:agent@championsukplc.com) his agent at [Champions](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) [Book Gabrielius Landsbergis ](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) ### Europe could help Ukraine most by staying out of this URL: https://landsbergis.com/europe-could-help-ukraine-most-by-staying-out-of-this/ Last updated: 2026-05-13T21:22:11.000Z Europe suddenly got busy discussing how to reengage Russia and settle the war. On one hand I can understand — it is clear that Putin is on the back foot. He is not yet losing, but he is struggling. Hundreds of thousands killed since the start of his three day “operation”, thousands added to the list every day, this is hardly an advertisement for recruits to join the meat-grinder. The Ukrainian strategy of going after Russian soldiers has produced results. The Russians are now losing more territory than they gained, partly because Ukraine attacked Russian territory in Belgorod. So it is time to send signals to Putin that if he wants to get out — this could be his opportunity, or things could get worse for him. ## Sign up for my free newsletter We fight for freedom together! Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. But what do Europeans bring to the table? There were no new initiatives, nothing that would strengthen Ukraine's position in the mid- to long-term. So whichever European goes to Moscow will return with Putin’s wish list. We saw the same with Witkoff and the subsequent US push to force Ukraine to give up on un-occupied territories. What would Putin request from Europeans? Agree to no EU enlargement, remove sanctions, no new assistance packages to Ukraine, etc. Whatever he asks for would certainly weaken Ukraine’s position. So I see no added value of EU participation, on the contrary, the EU — if involved — might try to play a role that would look exactly the same as the US, i.e. trying to push Ukraine to accept some of Putin’s demands, not because it is best for Ukraine, but because the EU wants to end the war for itself. I am convinced that Ukrainians have channels open with the Russians. The Ukrainians are the only ones that have real leverage in the negotiations, and they will know better than anybody about where they are willing to compromise. Europe could help Ukraine most by staying out of this. If you appreciated this article and you would like to support our work, join Friends of Democracy today! [Sign up and support ](#/portal/signup?ref=appreciated) To book Gabrielius Landsbergis please [contact](mailto:agent@championsukplc.com) his agent at [Champions](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) [Book Gabrielius Landsbergis ](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) ### The Baltic States could treat Zelenskyy’s warnings with respect URL: https://landsbergis.com/the-baltic-states-could-treat-zelenskyys-warnings-with-respect/ Last updated: 2026-04-22T19:36:32.000Z If Zelenskyy is warning us that Russia might attack the Baltics, I think he probably has a pretty good reason. As a Balt, I am surprised that many of us are treating Zelenskyy’s warning with contempt, while I myself understand where he is coming from. Some accuse Zelenskyy of spreading narratives that help Russia. Well, I very much doubt he is trying to help Russia, and I don’t think he would take that risk lightly. Some say he is pushing a fake scare story to focus the West’s attention on supporting Ukraine. But Ukraine has been deprived of that support for a long time, and has unfortunately learnt to live without it. I don’t think he is playing games. I find it more likely that he is offering his honest analysis to his friends. Anybody feeling instinctive anger whenever the issue of a possible Russian attack against a Baltic State is raised should have a think about these three questions: **1.** Are we sure Putin has no good reasons to attack NATO? He only needs one, and it doesn’t need to be as ambitious as a full invasion and annexation. He might be thinking that a small incursion could fracture our alliance and reboot his popularity at home by providing a win for his war machine. He could use his reserves or divert some troops from Ukraine, which he sees is a much harder nut to crack than the Baltics. Are we certain that he isn’t even tempted to try? **2.** If not the Baltics, then where? Even though the Baltic States have raised defence spending as a percentage of GDP to the highest levels in NATO, we remain vulnerable while the effect of that boost comes online. We have no conscription like the Finns, the German brigade won’t be here for at least a year, our militaries are less developed than other potential NATO targets, so why wouldn’t Putin choose us? **3.** And are we 100% certain that Article 5 is still deterring Russia as much as it used to? Even if we still believe in the “ironclad commitment” of our allies, any expert would have to admit that some of our main allies are somewhat distracted right now while others have only recently started rebuilding their militaries. Should Putin wait until Europe gets stronger? Or until US attention returns to Europe? Zelenskyy has good reason to doubt that the West would suddenly experience a surge of bravery if a second country in the East were attacked now, NATO member or not. So I’m sorry, but this is why I see where Zelenskyy is coming from. The Baltics **could** be the target, Putin **might** be tempted, and our allies **are** currently in a tough spot. The window of opportunity is open. > My suggestion to my fellow Baltic statesmen is this: Instead of getting flustered, get ready. Prepare contingency plans, learn Ukrainian survival techniques fast, and think about how to quickly extend the Ukrainian defence umbrella over the Baltic Sea — if indeed the merde does hit the ventilator. If you appreciated this article and you would like to support our work, join Friends of Democracy today! [Sign up and support ](#/portal/signup?ref=appreciated) To book Gabrielius Landsbergis please [contact](mailto:agent@championsukplc.com) his agent at [Champions](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) [Book Gabrielius Landsbergis ](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) ### The day American soft power died URL: https://landsbergis.com/the-day-american-soft-power-died/ Last updated: 2026-04-16T19:34:40.000Z It’s a fair question — how did the Vice President of the United States fly to Budapest, days before the election, in a clear attempt to boost Orbán's popularity, but instead end up assisting in a historic defeat? A visit by a Vice President of the United States is, under any circumstances, a major event — especially in Central and Eastern Europe, where pro-American sentiment runs deep regardless of which party is in the White House. That a visit may have contributed to a loss is, depending on your sympathies, either grimly ironic or darkly comic. The veep’s logic was clear. Orbán was the closest leader in Europe to Trump, so surely his people would welcome Washington's blessing? There are even some solid historic precedents. Maybe not in Hungary, not during election time, but US leaders have made a huge positive impact on us Europeans in the past. Kennedy's 'Ich bin ein Berliner.' Reagan's 'Tear down this wall.' American leaders moved Europeans to tears. So why not this time? President Bush visited my country Lithuania in 2002, just before announcing the invitation to join NATO. His words, proclaimed on the steps of Vilnius town hall, that “anyone who would choose Lithuania as an enemy has also made an enemy of the United States of America,” were then cast in bronze and screwed into the town hall wall. Lithuanians were still applauding the speech even after Bush left the stage. And in Hungary’s case it wasn’t only a speech. There was an endorsing tweet. A video message weeks before. And then the Vice President himself. If you are enjoying this article and you would like to support our work, join Friends of Democracy today! [Sign up and support ](#/portal/signup?ref=appreciatedmid) In the eyes of the Lithuanians cheering George W Bush in 2002, the US was a selfless superpower opening its benevolent defence umbrella over the heads of the weaker nations. Lithuania had long waited for this moment. Not only throughout the years since we restored our independence in 1990, but all the way since the occupation in 1940. The US was not forced to defend Lithuania, and there was no ulterior motive to be suspected. It was simply the “right thing to do”. I believe that the Berliners listening to Kennedy, or Reagan, felt the same as we did in Vilnius. The US was never perfect — but it represented aspiration towards an ideal. Liberty, freedom, call it what you want, but it was best represented by the US of A. This was peak American soft power. It meant that Europeans chose to accept American leadership — not because we had to, but because we believed we were on the right side of history, together. The Hungary debacle was very different. This time the interests were no longer selfless. Orbán's Hungary spent years systematically weakening Europe — blocking decisions, legitimising Putin's narrative, eroding the EU's ability to act. Ukraine was the most visible casualty, but not the only victim. US support for Orbán’s Hungary was cynical, and many people sensed that acutely. The policy introduced by the current US administration that shifts the paradigm of transatlantic relations from shared values to the defence of national interests took centre stage in Budapest. This change diminished the very meaning of “partnership”. For decades, Europeans knew that even though interests change, fundamental values would bind us. Without those binding values, naked interests failed to capture hearts and minds. Imagine a US president declaring in an Eastern European capital city that America is only here to sign a rare-earth mining contract. That announcement would not find its way onto a bronze plaque, would it. The miscalculation in Budapest reveals a deeper problem. It proved impossible to sway voters in a Central European country, but Western Europe harbours even less pro-American sentiment. The same playbook JD Vance used in Hungary, if applied to Le Pen or the AfD, might well result in an electoral windfall for Macron and Merz. The bronze plaque in Vilnius is still on the town hall wall. Time will tell if it will hang there as a reminder of a real promise that has not yet expired, or an oxidised epitaph dedicated to times gone by. If you appreciated this article and you would like to support our work, join Friends of Democracy today! [Sign up and support ](#/portal/signup?ref=appreciated) To book Gabrielius Landsbergis please [contact](mailto:agent@championsukplc.com) his agent at [Champions](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) [Book Gabrielius Landsbergis ](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) ### The End of Europe’s Geopolitical Dream URL: https://landsbergis.com/the-end-of-europes-geopolitical-dream/ Last updated: 2026-03-18T18:27:02.000Z President Trump addressed NATO in a recent interview with the Financial Times, suggesting he expects ***them*** (again forgetting that the US is part of the alliance) to assist in unblocking the Strait of Hormuz. In order to put even greater pressure, he added that "if there's no response, or if it's a negative response, I think it will be very bad for the future of NATO." Not long after, the negative RSVPs started to pile up—the main reason for refusal being: this is not our war. The Eastern Flank countries were a little more receptive, with Romania allowing the US to use its airfields for the attacks against Iran, and the Lithuanian FM suggesting that NATO should look into participation in a Strait of Hormuz mission. And so, a new major conflict has started not far away from Europe, and nobody is even raising an eyebrow at the fact that Europe doesn't have a "European" position—neither on what to call the conflict nor on what to do about it. It's like a new show is being streamed and the only two options being considered are to watch it or switch the TV off. ### And this is not a new phenomenon. After October 7, 2023, European Union foreign ministers would convene every month, discuss for half a day, and emerge with at least three diverging positions every time. One group pressed for Israel to halt its campaign on humanitarian grounds. Another insisted it was not in Europe's interest to intervene. A third sought balance—condemning the terrorists while calling for civilian protection. None of it looked serious. None of it made the European Union look serious. The beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine provided some hope. In the immediate aftermath, European unity was striking. Sanctions were agreed rapidly, and some of the harshest ever imposed on any country. The European Peace Facility was activated to provide military equipment to a partner country for the first time in EU history. Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova received candidate status. It started to look as though Europe was actually able to get its act together when it mattered most. ## Sign up for my free newsletter We fight for freedom together! Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. ### The honeymoon did not last long. Very soon Europe became paralysed. The European Peace Facility has since been effectively disabled by Hungary's veto, with some €6.6 billion in funds for Ukraine blocked. New sanctions packages have continued to accumulate, but their ambition has steadily diminished—each round more the product of lowest-common-denominator bargaining than of strategic intent. The effect on the Russian economy from recent packages is minimal, both because the bar is set so low and because member states fight to limit every addition to the sanctions list. The most recent example was also the most disappointing. Despite strong backing from von der Leyen and the German chancellor, the plan to use frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine ended in fiasco. A workaround was eventually found—a €90 billion borrowing arrangement agreed in December 2025, structured to exclude unwilling member states. For a moment, it looked as though Europe had found a way. Then Hungary and Slovakia moved to block the disbursement—despite not participating in the borrowing—leaving Ukraine facing a funding gap by spring. The situation regarding EU enlargement is also facing a darker future. There has always been reluctance to engage seriously with enlargement—not because the candidates are not ready, but mostly because nobody wants to champion the cause in Europe. The process is degrading into a charade to keep candidates in check and societies calm—the reassurance that something is still happening. But people in the corridors of Brussels will tell you: there will be no enlargement to the East. As in other cases of Eastern policy, Europe faces fundamental divisions—a group that sees Russia's threat as existential, a group that believes Russia's threat is manageable, and a group of Russian agents within Europe. ### The dysfunction is not only inter-governmental. For the past six years, Europe's institutional architecture has itself been a source of incoherence. Between 2019 and 2024, it was an open secret that Commission President von der Leyen and Council President Charles Michel frequently failed to align. In the current Commission, the fault line has shifted—now running between von der Leyen and High Representative Kaja Kallas. Institutional rivalry at the top does not project credibility. When Ursula von der Leyen took office as European Commission President in 2019, she declared her ambition was to lead a "geopolitical Commission." That phrase has haunted her ever since. Looking back across both her terms, one has to ask: was it ever more than an aspiration? Is it time to put Europe's geopolitical aspirations to rest? But this loss of focus prevents Europe acting in the way it was actually designed to act—as a trade bloc. When Trump imposed tariffs on the EU, Europe debated retaliation briefly—then simply swallowed the pill. When China began dumping its industrial overproduction onto European markets, the response was again passive resignation rather than the defence of European industry. If you are enjoying this article and you would like to support our work, join Friends of Democracy today! [Sign up and support ](#/portal/signup?ref=appreciatedmid) ### While Brussels is in disarray, a shift is already happening elsewhere. The debate over security guarantees for Ukraine is not happening in Brussels. It is happening in Paris, London, Warsaw, and Berlin. The €90 billion loan to Ukraine, though negotiated in Brussels, was not adopted by the EU as a whole—making it, in practice, a coalition-of-the-willing decision. Nordic and Baltic countries have deepened their own integration, moving faster and with more strategic coherence than any pan-European body could manage. When Trump signalled his ambitions over Greenland, the Nordic countries closed ranks around Denmark immediately. They did not wait for a European statement—because everyone understood that such a statement would never come, and that trying to produce one would only expose another fracture. All of this is leading Europe toward a mental split—where the real politics are happening everywhere else while Brussels pretends it still plays some role. That is not healthy for the Union; that is not healthy for Europe. A continent that could very well play an important part in shaping global events will retreat to being a group of middle powers scrambling for what's left in a great power competition. The hope of a geopolitical Europe and Europe as one of those great powers would be buried. The more ambitious response to this moment would be to turn that passive drift into an active debate. The European Commission, Council, or Parliament could table a simple but consequential question to member states: do we want Europe to be a geopolitical power? And if so, are we ready to grant Brussels a genuine mandate—including, ultimately, treaty change—to make security and foreign policy decisions with real authority? That debate, honestly conducted, might produce a new European Union capable of speaking for 450 million people. ### But Brussels is not having that debate. It is still operating on the premise that the promises of 2019 remain redeemable. They do not. And the cost of that pretence is not abstract—every non-decision has a price, paid by Ukraine, paid by European industry, paid by the countries on Europe's Eastern Flank who are left wondering whether the alliance they depend on can actually function. Perhaps a formal geopolitical Europe is impossible. Perhaps coalitions of the willing are the realistic vehicle for defence, security, and foreign policy for the foreseeable future. But Europeans deserve to know that this is the choice being made—and that it does not come for free. To book Gabrielius Landsbergis please [contact](mailto:agent@championsukplc.com) his agent at [Champions](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) [Book Gabrielius Landsbergis ](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) If you appreciated this article and you would like to support our work, join Friends of Democracy today! [Sign up and support ](#/portal/signup?ref=appreciated) ### Europe again embraces unforced errors that help the wrong side. URL: https://landsbergis.com/europe-again-embraces-unforced-errors-that-help-the-wrong-side/ Last updated: 2026-03-06T16:05:33.000Z While everyone’s eyes are glued to this week’s war in Iran, Ukraine has defied doubters again, emerging from the winter with a more positive outlook. It is difficult to be certain how the front line is moving, mostly because there is a 20-kilometre kill zone where drones from both sides destroy almost everyone who enters. But the front is far more stable than last year. Not only that, but Ukrainian forces also recaptured more territory than Russia gained, the first net Ukrainian gain in Ukraine proper since the 2023 counteroffensive. And all this happened during the most difficult winter in Ukrainian history. The Russian economy is clearly struggling. Payouts to recruits in the far-flung regions are being cut — even if Russians claim it’s because service has simply become popular. After four years of war and more than a million killed or seriously wounded, one might ask: are they sure they’re not lying? To mask their economic difficulties, Russians are cooking the books. German intelligence just announced that Russia’s budget deficit is not 2.6% as previously claimed, but 3.6%. Yes – a sure sign of things going wonderfully. The pressure on Ukraine to accept capitulation has eased somewhat, as the US is now preoccupied elsewhere. And there have been at least a couple of very daring Ukrainian operations against Russian oil export hubs and naval ports – a signal that Kyiv is not waiting around. If you are enjoying this article and you would like to support our work, join Friends of Democracy today! [Sign up and support ](#/portal/signup?ref=appreciatedmid) Ukraine has the wind at its back. Especially now that the European Union has confirmed the €90 billion loan package. Surely, after the frozen assets fiasco almost turned into a disaster, nobody wants to disrupt the growing momentum for victory? Right? ### Which brings us to the money. After failing to agree on using frozen assets, Europeans formed a coalition of the willing – using the power of common European borrowing to raise €90 billion for Ukraine over two years. A small note: the reason it is a coalition rather than a full EU instrument is that Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic asked to be excluded. The first tranche was due to reach Ukraine in April. With 40 days until Hungarian elections and sagging poll ratings, the Hungarian government decided to block the transfer—even though it is not Hungarian money—by conditioning its vote on Ukraine “fixing” the Druzhba pipeline that carries Russian oil to Budapest. On January 27th, Russia struck the pipeline again, leaving it damaged. So in effect, Ukrainians can only unlock existential EU funding if they repair and defend a pipeline under constant Russian attack. ### But that is only part of the story. European Union officials have apparently been active – just not where you would expect. Instead of pressing Hungary, they are pressuring Ukraine to sort out the pipeline, because confronting Budapest requires too much political effort. Let’s be clear about what is happening here. The pressure is not being put on the Hungarian government. It is being put on the Ukrainian government — because it is far easier to lean on the side that is already under pressure. That requires no political capital, no diplomatic creativity, no real courage. What makes this even sadder is that Putin has agreed to release a couple of Hungarian-Ukrainian POWs — thereby giving Orbán a small electoral gift just weeks before the vote. The inability to rein in a Hungary that has effectively hijacked European geopolitical ambition is damaging enough on its own. But actively pressing Ukraine to comply is simply disgraceful, even (especially) if you offer to pay for the compliance. The collective power of all those in Brussels should be used to block the ambitions of people like Putin and Orbán, not to twist the arms of Ukrainians while they’re fighting on Europe’s behalf. If you appreciated this article and you would like to support our work, join Friends of Democracy today! [Sign up and support ](#/portal/signup?ref=appreciated) To book Gabrielius Landsbergis please [contact](mailto:agent@championsukplc.com) his agent at [Champions](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) [Book Gabrielius Landsbergis ](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) ### Four years of horrors which must never be normalised URL: https://landsbergis.com/four-years-of-horrors-which-must-never-be-normalised/ Last updated: 2026-02-24T14:39:03.000Z Whomever I ask, everybody remembers where they were when the war started. Most of us were glued to the phone screen, unable to sleep, scanning the news. That night is etched in our minds as one of the most cruel, cynical, horrible nights that we have seen in our lifetimes. Throughout that night in 2022 many thought that the images coming in from Ukraine must be a nightmare from which we would wake up the next day to find everything normal again. I was supposed to be in Kyiv, together with the foreign ministers of Latvia and Estonia. We were supposed to accompany the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs to Kramatorsk, close to the contact line, as a show of support. But when I arrived at the airport in Vilnius, the screen showed that the flight was already cancelled. I was worried about my own country too. Nobody knew where Putin was going to be stopped, if at all. My every moment outside the flurry of meetings was spent scrolling the latest news. Ukraine was fighting. The recording of a Ukrainian swearing defiantly at a Russian battleship was an inspirational manifestation of Ukrainian bravery seen by all. For me, one of the other videos resonated most – an elderly lady offering a handful of sunflower seeds to a Russian soldier – because when he would die, and die he would, sunflowers would grow from seeds in his pockets. Defiance in the face of brutality. Shock led Europe forward, never enough, but at least in the right direction. It is almost impossible to believe that the first batches of sanctions were agreed unanimously and almost without concessions. And not just that - Europe managed to pay for the weapons sent to Ukraine. There was no Hungarian veto! There was no “rational analysis” of what the world had witnessed. The pictures of bodies scattered in the streets of Bucha or the woman clutching a keyring with a European Union flag – there were times when words were not enough. I remember during one of the Council meetings I read a poem by a poet from Mariupol. Nothing I could have said would have made more sense than his words, words grown in the fields of death everywhere around him. When the Russian front started to crack, a feeling of victory seeped in. I remember glinting eyes… maybe Ukrainians can actually win this!! Then the front froze, the West deterring themselves and restricting Ukraine, cowering in fear after Russian nuclear sabre-rattling. And here we are now, today, accustomed to the war, accustomed to the killing. We got used to the things that we promised would never happen in Europe again. If there is one thing I wish for at this start of the fifth year of war – it is for us to denormalise. To be outraged, angry, mad, like we all were during the first days of the war. Denormalisation is now a prerequisite to meaningful action. When Orban is once again vetoing an aid package that he has not even paid a cent for – there has to be outrage. Outrage, not mere concern. It cannot be “just another day in European politics”. We cannot keep shrugging and saying “that’s just how he is”. When we normalise him, we allow ourselves to become him. Putin was losing when all of us were angry. Remember? He thrives only when we are uninterested, distracted and overwhelmed. And so, if you chose to commemorate the day Ukraine and Europe was attacked by Russia – commemorate it by letting your anger trigger you into action. There is nothing normal about what’s happening, and there never was. But our choices normalised the horrific. Please, wherever you are and whatever you do, don’t normalise shrugging. Be angry. Act. ### Rubio kindly suggests replacing Western values with American interests URL: https://landsbergis.com/rubio-kindly-suggests-replacing-western-values-with-american-interests/ Last updated: 2026-02-15T19:30:33.000Z This year I'm leaving the Munich Security Conference in a mood which diplomats would describe as “thoughtful”. We can call this progress, as my mood in previous years was famously gloomy. The main highlight was obviously Secretary of State Mark Rubio’s speech. Opinions differ on whether it was an outstretched hand and an invitation for a conversation, or just the same signalling to Europe but wrapped in fancy paper. Whichever side of that debate you are on, I think it’s a sideshow. While everyone in Europe is discussing what the latest American speech means, I don't believe many people are discussing the speeches of Europeans in the US. > That means Europe is once again on the receiving end of a strategy imposed by others. The current US administration is suggesting a very specific view of what “Western alliance” means, and their view is more aligned with that of their President’s electorate than with that of the average European. ## Sign up for my free newsletter We fight for freedom together! Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. This means that even if it is a call for a conversation it might be a very short lived one. Europeans do believe in individual freedoms, free trade, do believe that the countries constituting the European Union are sovereign, at least most of them do trust in climate science. And if things are not working, Europeans tend to fix them via elections and smarter decisions, not revolutions – The current German administration took measures to curb migration, the European Commission is reversing some of the more extreme regulations. And Europeans don’t feel like they are in civilisational decline. What they see in their streets is very different to what some Americans see on sensationalist YouTube channels. And we Europeans really do still believe in values. Like, for example, the values of democracy, rule of law, territorial integrity. Since the tragedies of the Second World War, a common understanding of these values has brought us together as a peaceful community, and we tend to be concerned about protecting the values that brought us our prosperity and stability. Nobody forced the people of Europe to support Ukraine, to receive Ukrainian refugees, to raise millions for Ukraine, to vote for politicians who support Ukraine. But they overwhelmingly did, even though Russia’s TikTok influencers and Facebook fake accounts tried very hard to stop them. So I don’t think that Europeans should preach, panic or despair about the changes in the values held dear by those running the United States. Every country is free to choose their world view. The US chose theirs, and they aren’t asking for Europe’s input in their decisionmaking. But Europeans are also free; free to continue protecting their core democratic values from whoever tries to undermine and corrupt them. Free to point out differences in values, and to explain to electorates why these differences matter. Europe has to be ready to defend the values its vast majority holds dear. > Europe has to be prepared to help defend other democracies anywhere in the world if they are under attack. And they always are. Europe has to show readiness to cooperate closely with those who share our values. Europe can of course cooperate with those who share our interests, but be mindful that interests do change—for example—trade can be made into a political weapon very quickly. Such pivots are less frequent when values are aligned. Europe has to be ready to present its own version of the transatlantic agenda - a partnership, but without compromising on what is most important. And what is most important is values. But can we achieve that? There are still people upset and confused about the fact that Europe is not invited to the negotiations between the US, Russia and Ukraine. But Europe had the opportunity to do what it takes to command an invite to such talks. Leaders chose instead to dither, and so they were forced to accept whatever everybody else decides. Opening a diplomatic channel to Putin cannot create a negotiating table, it can only gift him yet another display of European self-humiliation. At some point, we must pivot to the solutions that actually work. Europe is still sovereign, and still has its core values. Europeans have the capability to carpe diem, to finally display all of our strength and resolve, at any time we choose. Europe also has the power to make strong and mutually beneficial alliances with those around the world who want to share our values. I am thoughtfully suggesting we do all this sooner, restoring our dignity while we still have the strength and values we currently have, rather than trying later, when our influence in global affairs has declined further by our inaction, and things have become very gloomy for everybody. If you appreciated this article and you would like to support our work, join Friends of Democracy today! [Sign up and support ](#/portal/signup?ref=appreciated) To book Gabrielius Landsbergis please [contact](mailto:agent@championsukplc.com) his agent at [Champions](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) [Book Gabrielius Landsbergis ](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) ### Dear Mr. Rutte, I'm not dreaming, I'm having nightmares URL: https://landsbergis.com/dear-mr-rutte-im-not-dreaming-im-having-nightmares/ Last updated: 2026-01-30T19:34:47.000Z I presume that the NATO Secretary General’s messaging about Europe’s inability to fight Russia alone was intended for Europeans as a warning against shutting the door on transatlantic cooperation. Well, nobody is shutting that door just yet, but I would argue that it is nevertheless prudent to consider the possibility that a war with Russia, if it came to that, might have to be fought by Europeans alone. Preparing for such an eventuality should not be taboo, and discussion of contingencies should not be ridiculed. Furthermore, it is worth discussing how Mark Rutte’s messaging might have been interpreted by our adversaries. In the face of an existential threat, in a recent meeting at the European Parliament, Mr. Rutte said that those who think Europe could defend itself without US support are “dreaming”. This de facto defeatism diminishes Europe’s ability to deter Putin. Bullies aren’t deterred by loud declarations of vulnerability, they are emboldened and encouraged. I feel a little uneasy watching a NATO Secretary General choosing this particular communication strategy. But Mr. Rutte’s much-repeated soundbite must have been music to Putin and Xi’s ears for an even more fundamental reason, which is further deepening my concern. I remember that not long ago, the same Mark Rutte, during a joint press conference with Chancellor Merz, warned that if China decided to launch an attack on Taiwan, they would likely coordinate with Russia to create a parallel conflict to keep the West overstretched. I agree with the assessment, this does indeed seem to be their plan. Therefore, both our adversaries must have been delighted to have received loud confirmation, from the head of NATO himself, that their dual-theater strategy can indeed work. If the head of NATO is certain that Europe cannot defend itself without US support, he is implying that the US will face a serious dilemma - either lose Europe to Russia, or Taiwan to China. Rutte’s “dreaming” speech, rather than serving as a rallying cry for the transatlantic partnership, might have been welcomed by the Chinese as a self-fulfilling prophecy of success if they do exactly what they are planning to do. A stronger NATO strategy would be to confirm and further increase transatlantic readiness to fight in two theatres at the same time, so that Putin and Xi would themselves be presented with a dilemma requiring their attention and resources. But this is not what we hear from Mr. Rutte, and not what we read in official documents coming out of Washington. Why not? I hear a lot about pragmatism. Mr. Rutte’s “pragmatic” approach seems to be declaring, and even exaggerating, weakness in order to justify the need for US support. But nobody was really questioning that need for that. Nobody is seriously saying Europe should choose to go it alone and burn all bridges, but some of us are saying we might not get a choice, and Mr. Rutte’s assumption that the US would split its forces to save Europe from Russia is looking more and more dreamlike as time goes on. The important question Mr. Rutte side-stepped is this: What must be done to prepare Europe to fight in the increasingly likely and terrifying scenario B, i.e. without our main ally? In the light of recent developments, it seems to me that the pinnacle of pragmatism would be to at least have an honest conversation about this very real possibility. If you appreciated this article and you would like to support our work, join Friends of Democracy today! [Sign up and support ](#/portal/signup?ref=appreciated) To book Gabrielius Landsbergis please [contact](mailto:agent@championsukplc.com) his agent at [Champions](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) [Book Gabrielius Landsbergis ](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) ## Sign up for my free newsletter We fight for freedom together! Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. ### Thank you, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya URL: https://landsbergis.com/thank-you-sviatlana-tsikhanouskaya/ Last updated: 2026-01-22T21:05:45.000Z A couple of months ago I wrote about the [Lithuanian government’s decision](https://landsbergis.com/why-is-lithuania-betraying-svetlana-tsikhanouskaya/) to remove Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s security detail, which was assigned to her as the elected President of Belarus and an opposition leader in exile. This decision came as a shock, not only to those who have supported Sviatlana’s fight for democracy but also to those who care about the future of democracy itself in today's disintegrating world. I know that currently explosive international affairs leave limited space for following the less headline catching issues. So I would like to stop for a moment and spotlight this issue as it is close to my heart. I, like many, felt betrayed and angry. This decision imperilled Sviatlana’s security. Almost immediately came announcements about the increased threat to her and her family. There was never any doubt that she was, and remains, a target for the Belarusian dictator Lukashenko. Her words and her travels pose a threat to his self-proclaimed legitimacy. Sviatlana’s political activity reminds him daily that he stole the election, that he is an illegal tenant of a position that should belong to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. Of course he would like her gone. The security detail was reinstated for a few months only to be removed permanently in December. And just a couple of days ago, it was announced that Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya is moving to Poland. Our southern neighbours, thankfully, have offered her a safe haven to continue her work. The backing of a European and NATO country is crucial for her legitimacy in representing democratic Belarus, and she will continue to have that. Without a safe country as a haven Lukashenko would have been gifted the argument that Europeans are turning their backs on Sviatlana. That outcome was avoided, which is great news for Belarusian democracy. Her legitimacy is secured and—most importantly—she is safe. I won’t delve into the details of the politics of my country. I have [written about that previously](https://landsbergis.com/why-is-lithuania-betraying-svetlana-tsikhanouskaya/). This text is not about that. **This text is meant as a thank you message to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya.** Sviatlana came to Lithuania in 2020, and immediately she started her work. I had the privilege to work alongside her and saw a warrior. Never relenting, never afraid, always laser-focused on her cause – the freedom of her nation. And it was never easy. There were Westerners who needed convincing, Belarusians who were not always keen on trusting her leadership, but I have seen her tirelessly convincing Western capitals not to look away from the plight of the Belarusian people. I witnessed her building coalitions within the Belarusian opposition. There was never a conference missed or a meeting skipped. There was always a voice of the free Belarusian people to be heard. She was that voice. I want to believe that democracy will win the future. I believe that not just for the sake of Belarus or other captive nations today, but for my country too. The future is uncertain for all of us. She gave me hope that if we pick up the fight, if we do not give up, if we support each other, there is a chance that we will win. And a lesson – we have truly lost only if we have given up. And every time, wherever she would go, she would graciously mention Lithuania. After she spoke in the parliament of one European country, a senior diplomat from that country quipped that in Sviatlana we have an invaluable Lithuanian ambassador. After her speech, members of that parliament thought not only about the people of Belarus, but about my country, Lithuania, as well. That chapter of my country’s history is ending. I am glad it is to be continued in Europe, in Poland, for Sviatlana, and for democracy fighters everywhere. I am grateful for that, I wish her only the best in her continued mission for Belarus, and I will be forever thankful for all she did for Lithuania. ## Sign up for my free newsletter We fight for freedom together! Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. To book Gabrielius Landsbergis please [contact](mailto:agent@championsukplc.com) his agent at [Champions](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) [Book Gabrielius Landsbergis ](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) If you appreciated this article and you would like to support our work, join Friends of Democracy today! [Sign up and support ](#/portal/signup?ref=appreciated) ### Trump won’t be taking the pressure off Europe any time soon URL: https://landsbergis.com/trump-wont-be-taking-the-pressure-off-europe-any-time-soon/ Last updated: 2026-01-12T21:18:08.000Z In the [@FT](https://x.com/FT?ref=landsbergis.com), [@gideonrachman](https://x.com/gideonrachman?ref=landsbergis.com) rightfully points out that Europe has a lot of leverage that can be used against the US—tariffs, armament contracts, bases in Europe to project US power forward—if Trump does not back down. But this does not fill me with optimism, because Europe has consistently failed to show that it is willing and able to use any of its levers. Four years was plenty of time for Europe to build up the necessary strength and resolve to support Ukraine fully, thereby maintaining our continent’s relevance and influence in international affairs, but that didn’t happen. Europe, not so long ago, accepted unilateral tariffs, deliberately underplaying the weight of the world’s biggest trading bloc. If it was an attempt to de-escalate with Trump – it didn’t work. When it came to frozen Russian assets, European team spirit crumbled again. And although it wasn’t a financial loss for Ukraine—who will be getting 90 billion euros—it was a defeat for Europe as a whole. Under pressure from both Russia and the US, despite the considerable efforts of Chancellor Merz, the EU will continue to protect the money of the aggressor. In the eye of the storm, the EU could invite Greenland back into the European Union, offering the guarantees of EU treaty article 42 (7). But it’s extremely difficult to see European leaders agreeing on this. We know we are stuck, our friends and enemies know too. Therefore nobody should expect the pressure on Europe to be reduced until we realise that respect is fought for, not begged for. ### Reminder: LIVE streaming in 5 minutes! URL: https://landsbergis.com/reminder-live-streaming-in-5-minutes/ Last updated: 2025-12-17T17:54:34.000Z Here is your secret link to my YouTube Q&A _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### SECRET VIDEO LINK - Ask Gabrielius Landsbergis Anything! URL: https://landsbergis.com/secret-video-link-ask-gabrielius-landsbergis-anything/ Last updated: 2025-12-17T13:50:00.000Z Ask Gabrielius Landsbergis Anything! _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Europe needs a Freedom Doctrine URL: https://landsbergis.com/europe-needs-a-freedom-doctrine/ Last updated: 2025-12-15T22:02:10.000Z On the 18th of December, leaders will gather in Brussels to finalise the decision on the loan based on the frozen Russian assets that would allow the EU to finance Ukraine for several years. This will be the day Europe will either start paving a path forward for the continent, or accepting the humiliating role of observer. If the decision to use the assets is not taken – Europe might be forced to comply with whatever the US agrees with the Russians – not excluding the return of the assets back to the aggressor. The decision on the 18th therefore creates a path dependency. With the money – Europe could support Ukraine, retain subjectivity and win more time to prepare for the defence of the continent. In an op-ed for Chatham House magazine *The World Today*, I argue that since the age of the Truman Doctrine has ended – Europe needs a freedom doctrine of its own. And I know that it might be difficult to agree on one. First, Europe has to admit that it is in crisis. And, as in the times when the European Community came into being, leaders should lock themselves in a room and not come out until they have the Doctrine hashed out. If this is not done soon, Europe will be forced to live by the only doctrine around – Putin’s doctrine – and there will be no one else to blame but ourselves. Read the article in the Winter edition of *The World Today*: ### Europe needs a doctrine to halt Putin’s expansionist ambitions *The World Today*, Winter 2025, Chatham House [https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/the-world-today/2025-12/europe-needs-doctrine-halt-putins-expansionist-ambitions](https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/the-world-today/2025-12/europe-needs-doctrine-halt-putins-expansionist-ambitions?ref=landsbergis.com) ## If you have questions about this or anything else, reply to this email and get in touch. I will be answering during a live stream on Wednesday, details below. ****Save the date!** ****Friends of Democracy Birthday Party** Wednesday December 17th Livestreaming from my laptop at Stanford 10:00 PST / 13:00 EST / 19:00 CET / 20:00 EET Secret access for paid members only [Sign up for access ](#/portal/signup) I'm looking forward to meeting you in the chat. Here's some thoughts from a recent TVP interview to inspire your questions: > "If not for Hungary, Europe would be far less dependent on Russian energy resources than it is now" said Lithuania’s former Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis \[[@GLandsbergis](https://twitter.com/GLandsbergis?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=landsbergis.com)\] in the latest episode of On the Record. "It could be potentially that some of the businessmen in the… [pic.twitter.com/8BB0DS5WDN](https://t.co/8BB0DS5WDN?ref=landsbergis.com) > > — TVP World (@TVPWorld\_com) [December 11, 2025](https://twitter.com/TVPWorld%5Fcom/status/1999092752814903563?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=landsbergis.com) If you appreciated this article and you would like to support our work, join Friends of Democracy today! [Sign up and support ](#/portal/signup?ref=appreciated) To book Gabrielius Landsbergis please [contact](mailto:agent@championsukplc.com) his agent at [Champions](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) [Book Gabrielius Landsbergis ](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) ### Happy 1st Birthday, Friends of Democracy! URL: https://landsbergis.com/happy-1st-birthday-friends-of-democracy/ Last updated: 2025-12-12T21:53:47.000Z It’s been a year since my time at the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry ended and I started out on this new journey with you and all the other Friends. ### We’re having a party I want to thank you all for your support this year, and as a special thanks for my paid members – we’re having a birthday party online! ****Friends of Democracy Birthday Party** Wednesday December 17th Streaming live from Stanford 10:00 PST / 13:00 EST / 19:00 CET / 20:00 EET Secret access for paid members only ****Paid members only!** A secret link will be sent to all paid members who are signed up before the stream starts. Login will be required. [Sign up now ](#/portal/signup) ## Ask Me Anything Ask me about geopolitics, history, diplomacy, Lithuania, my tweets or anything else. **Don't be shy, RSVP to this email or add a comment on the website to submit your questions in advance.** > *Thank you for being part of the fight for freedom and giving me hope that the world can turn a corner in 2026.* #### Love from ### Gabrielius Landsbergis ### Ukraine is right not to rush towards capitulation URL: https://landsbergis.com/ukraine-is-right-not-to-rush-towards-capitulation/ Last updated: 2025-12-05T21:21:34.000Z Since the so-called “peace deal” was leaked to the public, Ukraine has been bombarded with advice on how to react. Most of the advisors suggest a defeatist path, either cowed by US pressure to end the conflict at all costs, or, more often, swayed by a suspiciously convenient disbelief in Europe’s ability to help Ukraine. And yes - the Ukrainian front is under constant pressure, Europe is still to make real commitments to continue financial support for the next year, and the ongoing corruption investigation doesn’t make life easier for President Zelenskyy, but can we say the situation really is hopeless enough to justify surrender? It seems to me that Ukraine has more to gain by navigating itself away from the demands for capitulation, even if that means sailing towards stormier seas. Let us remember the existence of unknown unknowns. Since the first days of war, Ukraine has been defying the odds daily. It started with the halting of the three-day march to Kyiv, then continued with the reconquering of Kherson and Kharkiv, and so it went on. Almost every month that passed seemed like it could be the last, and there was always someone somewhere writing articles insisting that Ukraine could not go on. But the longer Ukraine held, the more support her allies provided. Sanctions imposed against Russia grew over time. Ukrainian industry used the time to develop new methods of defending a country. Taking one step at a time, never accepting rules that were drafted by others, Ukrainians built themselves a more favourable reality. The going is tough, but Ukraine is not without options – new weapon systems are being developed, more drones are reaching the frontlines, and recently the shadow fleet tankers started burning at sea – Russia is being fed its own medicine. Russia’s structural problems have started to affect the everyday experience of a Moscow or St Petersburg life enjoyer. The longer this continues, with Ukrainians able to put evermore pressure on the Russian economy, the more rifts will open up in urban society. ****Coming soon – LIVE Q&A!** For access to the stream, join Friends of Democracy today [Sign up and support ](#/portal/signup?ref=qanda) Another reason not to rush the onset of despair is this: Europeans might come around. Already now Europe is the single major supporter, taking over the burden that was previously carried by the United States. So far, there is no decision on the frozen Russian assets, but, I hope, that too can change. Europeans have the opportunity to start shifting their attitude from one of ad hoc support to Ukraine (“because it is the right thing to do”) to one where sustained support is understood as existential to European survival. President Trump has done a lot to raise the question of European dignity. Think what you want of the continent right now, but I don’t doubt its ability to rise up to defend itself and its allies later rather than never. As for the Maidan protestors and frontline warriors – they are unlikely to accept humiliating conditions, especially when the war is far from being lost. There are reports of soldiers declaring their intent to stay in position and disregard any agreement to turn Donbas over to the Russians, indicating that a ceasefire might be harder to impose than Western leaders would like to think. Ukraine is a democratic country and its politicians adhere to their mandate as granted by their people, not unelected outsiders. > Ukraine knows that Ukraine can only count on Ukraine. Ukraine has heard more than its share of promises, and skepticism over “security assurances” should be understood. Giving away its nuclear stockpiles in 1992, promises of NATO membership in 2008, Minsk agreements that promised peace after the occupation of Crimea – all these grand promises proved to be empty. Ukraine knows that Ukraine can only count on Ukraine. It is even reasonable to assume that after the announcement of “peace” – Europe’s attention will drift elsewhere and Ukraine will be left vulnerable. Again the promises might turn into expressions of regret and deliveries of deep concern. Ukrainian thinking might shift towards a ceasefire if Western soldiers were on the ground and—crucially—able to fight alongside Ukrainians to push back on the next Russian attack, but no Western country is prepared to commit to that yet. Under these circumstances expecting Ukrainians to commit to a humiliating capitulation would be, to say the least, unfair. And lastly let us remember the lessons of history. Any deal forced on Ukraine will only marginally differ from the notorious deal that was forced on Czechoslovakia in 1938\. We all know what came of that, and nobody can explain how Donbas is any different. Nobody is ready to ensure that Russia will not go on to ask for Odesa, Kyiv and then all of Ukraine. The fog of diplomacy is surrounding the negotiations, but what little information seeps out allows us to piece together a picture, and it looks like Ukraine is far from hurrying to take what is being offered. But nobody can tell yet if they can hold this position for long. As Ukraine’s darkest hour approaches, realities are becoming harder for politicians to manipulate. There’s no more pretending to stand with Ukraine “as long as it takes”, no more triumphant train rides to Kyiv. Europe’s leaders can no longer avoid confronting a stark choice – either to defend our European way of life on our European continent, or to allow it all to start collapsing on their watch. If you appreciated this article and you would like to support our work, join Friends of Democracy today! [Sign up and support ](#/portal/signup?ref=appreciated) To book Gabrielius Landsbergis please [contact](mailto:agent@championsukplc.com) his agent at [Champions](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) [Book Gabrielius Landsbergis ](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) ### The 28 point plan marks the end of the end URL: https://landsbergis.com/the-28-point-plan-marks-the-end-of-the-end/ Last updated: 2025-11-25T22:45:06.000Z There is a glaringly obvious message for Europe in the 28 point plan: This is the end of the end. We have been told repeatedly and unambiguously that Ukraine’s security, and therefore Europe’s security, will be Europe’s responsibility. And now it is. Entirely. If you are a European leader asking your team to book you on the next flight to Washington to go talk to Daddy, please don’t. Not without a plan, not cap in hand, not humiliating us all in front of the cameras at the Oval office. Europe is our continent, our future is decided here, not there. We aren’t poor, we have options, we can finally decide to assist Ukraine to the full extent of our very extensive capabilities, restore European dignity and defend Europe. Or we can continue to wait for the miracle we now know is not coming. I set out my analysis this week in The New York Times, in my essay "[Nothing Succeeds With Trump Quite Like Success](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/18/opinion/trump-ukraine-europe.html?ref=landsbergis.com)". Regardless of whether or not it is possible to win back Trump's support, nothing would work better than success. Here's the discussion on X: > There is a glaringly obvious message for Europe in the 28 point plan: This is the end of the end. > > We have been told repeatedly and unambiguously that Ukraine’s security, and therefore Europe’s security, will be Europe’s responsibility. And now it is. Entirely. > > If you are a… > > — Gabrielius Landsbergis🇱🇹 (@GLandsbergis) [November 21, 2025](https://twitter.com/GLandsbergis/status/1991898379564269720?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=landsbergis.com) Here's where we could start: > A real peace plan in Europe would obviously need the EU and Ukraine on board, but also – it wouldn’t need others on board. The EU and Ukraine could easily write their own plan for €190bn and change the game forever, and they don't need anyone else's permission to do that. > > — Gabrielius Landsbergis🇱🇹 (@GLandsbergis) [November 20, 2025](https://twitter.com/GLandsbergis/status/1991502175340753159?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=landsbergis.com) I went into more detail in an [interview with TVP](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5p7luOfF8e4&ref=landsbergis.com) this week. Here's a clip: 0:00 /0:58 1× And nothing has changed since 2004 when I warned of the ongoing [non-arrival of the miracle](https://x.com/GLandsbergis/status/1775896187922690088?ref=landsbergis.com). If you appreciated this article and you would like to support our work, join Friends of Democracy today! [Sign up and support us ](#/portal/signup) To book Gabrielius Landsbergis please [contact](mailto:agent@championsukplc.com) his agent at [Champions](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) [Book Gabrielius Landsbergis ](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) ### My speech at the Magnitsky Human Rights Awards URL: https://landsbergis.com/my-speech-at-the-magnitsky-human-rights-awards/ Last updated: 2025-11-14T15:10:35.000Z I am humbled by the Outstanding Contribution award, and feeling absolutely inadequate when I see the list of people who have been awarded the same. Over the last five years, a word that was used quite often was deescalation. In the face of Russian attacks against Ukraine, thousands of stolen Ukrainian children, bombed civilians, thousands of people detained and held as political prisoners (and thats is happening in more places than before) – we are advised not to escalate against all that. We are asked to choose half measures, to choose silence. We are asked not to offend the dictators. Not to shed light on their deeds. Not to bring discomfort to them. Because that would require doing something about it. But I am immensely proud that this evening, people that have gathered here who are doing exactly that. This evening is about not being silent, it is about making dictators' crimes known, about making sure that they are annoyed, even angry, or better yet overthrown, This event is exactly the opposite of what was advised. It is escalating the fight for freedom, human rights, justice and democracy. I am as proud as I could ever be, being a small part of that escalation. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/46/1646b851-f8fd-48ff-9390-fa25f8de699d/content/images/2025/11/magnitskyawards2025-25.jpg) If you appreciated this article and you would like to support our work, join Friends of Democracy today! [Sign up and support us ](#/portal/signup) To book Gabrielius Landsbergis please [contact](mailto:agent@championsukplc.com) his agent at [Champions](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) [Book Gabrielius Landsbergis ](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) ### Donbas is today’s Sudetenland URL: https://landsbergis.com/donbas-is-todays-sudetenland/ Last updated: 2025-11-25T22:44:59.000Z A real European peace plan would be one that reduces Putin’s strength at home or in Ukraine, forcing him to change his calculations. If the Russian people stop supporting him, if he cannot maintain the fight in Ukraine, if he sees that the West can support Ukraine longer than he can keep going – only then will his calculations start changing. ## Sign up for my free newsletter We fight for freedom together! Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Recent announcements carried the very important message that the current contact line would be considered to be the starting point for negotiations. The idea was tentatively suggested by many in Europe, but now Zelenskyy has confirmed it officially. The idea has been characterised as an “acceptance of reality but without legal recognition”. This implies that there is nothing else that could be done to change this accepted reality, that Putin has control of the land and, at least militarily, there is nothing that could be done to change the status quo. > **Call it what you want, but it is still Sudetenland de facto, if not de jure.** In 1938 it also seemed to many people that nothing could be done militarily and the Czech cause was lost, but in reality there was an opportunity to pin down German forces in Alsace, giving the Czechs a fighting chance. However, the decision was made by the British Prime Minister to surrender part of somebody else’s country to a dictator, because that seemed easier. Now, as in 1938, there were decisions that could have changed the course of the conflict if we had avoided delays, deliberations and appeasement. If only we would have fought to win. I hear those arguing that Ukrainians have also agreed to this reality. The Czechs in 1938 agreed too. What else could they have done after their security guarantees collapsed? And yes, then, as now, there were people who thought surrendering rather than fighting the aggressor would prevent further bloodshed. But we know all too well how that went - the aggressors’ appetite only grew. And we are being told that the countries supporting Ukraine are standing bravely against Putin’s demands to be handed over the territory he didn’t yet manage to conquer. Excuse me for asking, but what would happen if – by the time the ceasefire is agreed – Putin takes Donbas and demands Kharkiv? Would the Western position change somehow? Where is the line where we would say “not a step further”? If we don’t change our strategy, the line will continue crawling westward. > **I have to say this: This is what Western failure looks like.** Occupied lands are not just territories or zones of interest, they are parts of a country, home to people who have fallen victim to an aggressor, home to the people that we have failed. And the aggressor will take this win and continue pushing for more. With or without a ceasefire. Don’t get me started on the suggestion of the Finnish or Baltic scenarios as an example to be followed. Finland lost a chunk of its sovereignty and the Baltics lost their freedom. In cold geopolitical eyes we were seen as part of a “Soviet zone of influence”, too far from western reach to be offered meaningful support. And so the people there sank into the shadows of history where they remained for 50 years. Maybe all of this is just a charade meant to show President Trump who the real villain is? He sees Putin is the one who refuses ceasefires while the Ukrainians accept. That should influence perceptions in the White House, and maybe it will in the future. > **But today only one thing is certain – Putin is being handed a victory.** From the people in the reconquered territories of Ukraine, from the stories of eye witnesses in Chechnya, and from our own Baltic history we know very well what people have to suffer at the hands of Russian occupiers. Torture, rape, deportations and brainwashing have been and remain weapons used against the oppressed. So forgive me if I am not celebrating a clause in a peace plan that sets the current contact line as the starting point for negotiations. I can’t shrug off the feeling that by repeating the mistakes of 1938 we are strolling into 1939\. If you appreciated this article and you would like to support our work, join Friends of Democracy today! [Sign up and support us ](#/portal/signup) To book Gabrielius Landsbergis please [contact](mailto:agent@championsukplc.com) his agent at [Champions](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) [Book Gabrielius Landsbergis ](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) ### Why is Lithuania betraying Svetlana Tsikhanouskaya? URL: https://landsbergis.com/why-is-lithuania-betraying-svetlana-tsikhanouskaya/ Last updated: 2025-10-07T19:38:23.000Z I kept silent about my home country Lithuania’s internal politics for almost a year. Since leaving office I felt like I needed some distance, to think more objectively. But after recent Lithuanian moves against Belarus opposition leader Svetlana Tsikhanouskaya, I now feel I cannot stay silent about my country’s radical changes in direction. As I see it, this particular u-turn is the straw that can break the camel’s back, unravelling what Lithuania has stood for since regaining independence, fundamentally undermining our achievements and gutting our hard-earned reputation of being fighters for freedom. The implications are more dangerous than they seem at first glance, so let me explain the whole story. ## Sign up for my free newsletter We fight for freedom together! Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Svetlana Tsikhanouskaya has been a symbol of the fight against tyranny and against the enormous odds that are stacked against democracies. Having won the Belarus presidential elections in 2020 she had to flee to Lithuania, which offered shelter to her and her children. Her husband was incarcerated in Belarus for being a threat to the dictator Lukashenko. Svetlana was fighting relentlessly for the dignity of the Belarusian people, convincing Western leaders to sanction a corrupt regime and offering a real alternative, a future political choice for the Belarusian people. She was a reminder that no country is doomed to be run by a dictator. She stood as a bulwark against Western desires to remove sanctions, initiate reconciliations and offer appeasements to dictators. I had the great privilege to assist her in her fight. For five years she was a living, breathing symbol of democracy, and what energised me most was her help building Vilnius into a world-renowned capital of resistance against authoritarianism. Meanwhile, Lukashenko remains firmly in the authoritarian camp. Only a few days ago, a swarm of balloons from Belarus forced Vilnius Airport to close. Drones launched against Poland fly through Belarusian airspace, and sometimes they are even launched from Belarus. There is no hope at all that Lukashenko has the desire, the intention, or even the ability to rejoin our family of free and friendly nations. But Lithuania’s move to remove Svetlana Tsikhanouskaya’s security detail effectively forces her family and her office out of Lithuania. With no explanation, and giving her almost no time to prepare, the government of Lithuania no longer considers Svetlana an official Guest of the State. By losing her, my country loses an important partner in the fight for democracy, loses visibility when standing up against tyrants, loses the strength of voice needed for a smaller country to defend its national interests in a world where realists rule. Lithuania became a center of values-based foreign policy long before it became a doctrine. Since 2016, Vilnius hosted Russian opposition gatherings and the Free Russia Forum. Every May – no matter what government was running Lithuania – people like Nemcov, Kasparov, Kara-Murza and countless others would gather in Lithuania to discuss the democratic future of Russia. Vilnius is a place Russian and Belarusian opposition activists chose to live and work in. A center for dissidents that demonstrated the value of support and kept the hope alive that democracies will win. After all, Vilnius is the city where Taiwanese people can proudly call their office by *their* chosen name, not China’s. Svetlana was invited in August 2020 by the foreign minister working in the center-left government of the time – Linas Linkevicius. I was proud to continue his work in the subsequent center-right government, structuring what was morally right into a more formal foreign policy agenda. Values-based foreign policy is not only morally right, it is also a policy of paying forward, upholding principles for subsequent generations. Small countries at the borders of big countries are a kind of anomaly of history, made possible by alliances and upholding the principles of international law. I have always argued that defence of values is the most pragmatic way for a small country to work. When the crocodile turns to us – and he will definitely turn to us – we will have participated in the creation of the system of likeminded countries and people that can assist each other, building trust over a long timeframe. We don’t know what will happen to other dissidents on our territory, but I am dismayed to realise that Lithuania can no longer be considered a trustworthy partner for people looking for shelter from tyranny. Reasons behind the decision remain obscure, but it is clear that the main beneficiary is Lukashenko – forcing Svetlana out, hoping to silence her, questioning her legitimacy is exactly what he has been dreaming about for a long time. The current Lithuanian government, especially its more radical elements, always wanted to return to business as usual with the Belarusian dictator. But the self inflicted wound will go much deeper. Having lost a moral ground, the Lithuanian voice will be less valued and less appreciated in the world. Dictators will have a moment to rejoice – celebrating having one voice less to worry about. In their view – Lithuania has taken a step towards where Hungary and Slovakia are. And at the same time, the world is not getting any safer, especially not for Lithuania. I will repeat – in the world of Putin and Lukashenko there is no place for Lithuania, or for any small country. By ejecting Svetlana, Lithuania is helping to create that world. The situation that my country faces today didn’t start last week. The scene was set a while ago. A couple of months before the 2024 elections a group of parliamentarians requested a ruling regarding statements made by MP Remigijus Zemaitaitis. The statements in question were openly antisemitic and the group decided that ignoring them could imply approval, so they approached the Constitutional Court. The Constitutional Court ruled that the MP had been systemically antisemitic and his statements constituted a breach of his oath. The next step – a vote in parliament to take away his mandate. If the vote had succeeded – Zemaitaitis would not have been allowed to run in the next election. He did not wait for the vote, he gave up his seat before the vote, allowing himself to escape with a clean record and run again in the next elections. Zemaitaitis then created a party, a hard right (populist) movement, promoting it mostly through Tik-Tok. This movement promoted anti-Ukrainian tropes, with the typical assorted Eastern/Central European populist nonsense. You’ve heard this story before, but the scary part is that in Lithuania the Tik-Tok party got 15% of the votes. And so to the formation of the coalition. The Social Democrats decided that they needed a wider coalition and decided to include the Tik-Tok party. That prompted vast protests to pressure the Social Democrats and the President to block any antisemitic coalition. The pressure did not work – the coalition was formed. But a vague promise that the radical parties will not contribute members to the government was given. Not even half a year passed and the Prime Minister had to resign on allegations of misuse of public office. With the Social Democrats in disarray and searching for new leadership, the Tik-Tok party only gained strength. It is a story as old as time. Naive or malicious ideas to incorporate populists in governments in order to “control” or to “expose” them never ends well. Clowns turn governments into a circus, but it is almost always much less fun. The Tik-Tok party has been working from the same script as parties in Romania, Moldova, Georgia. Ideas, words, divisions created – we have seen that already, and it almost always feels as if the guidebook was written in Moscow. When a new government was formed this summer, the Tik-Tokers took their chance and requested ministerial posts. The promise about keeping them out of those posts was broken and forgotten. The President – who would be expected to counter-balance the forces in Parliament – chose to throw his weight behind the coalition again. The explanation for that is difficult to find. Lithuanians always had a habit of electing Presidents who looked after the country's interests. It appears that this is no longer the case. The situation reached boiling point when Zemaitaitis decided to nominate a member of his party as Culture Minister. The candidate was completely unqualified, nothing to do with culture, appearing more like a parody than a politician. Immediately thousands of actors, writers and singers came out in protest demanding his resignation and the Tik-Tok party’s exclusion from the post. Ignoring the protests, the President signed the appointment. One of the first tasks carried out by the new Culture Minister was to order the removal of the Ukrainian flag from the ministry. This did not go unnoticed. His extremely short term ended the next when he was asked on camera “Crimea is whose?”. The minister chose not to answer that question. He stepped down immediately afterwards. The mass protests by the culture sector and the thousands of people who support their aims continue to gain momentum. The protest is now evolving from a fight for one ministry into a movement to prevent the loss of our country. The lesson here and everywhere else is the same – we cannot take freedom and democracy for granted. Georgians, Moldovans are fighting for political freedom every day. Ukrainians are fighting like hell for their country. And the dangers are spreading in many other European countries, now apparently including mine, Lithuania. I am sad that we are dashing the hopes we raised. I apologise to all those to whom we gave shelter, but then failed to protect. I hope you will be able to forgive us, because it looks like we might need your help soon. If you appreciated this article and you would like to support our work, join Friends of Democracy today! [Sign up and support us ](#/portal/signup) To book Gabrielius Landsbergis please [contact](mailto:agent@championsukplc.com) his agent at [Champions](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) [Book Gabrielius Landsbergis ](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) ### NATO's quick and decisive responses also need to deter URL: https://landsbergis.com/nato-quick-and-decisive-responses-also-need-to-be-effective-deterrents/ Last updated: 2025-11-25T22:45:18.000Z The geopolitical Groundhog Day is still stuck on repeat. Each undeterred and unanswered escalation leads to another, bolder and more frequent. Each explanation for inaction becomes weaker and more elaborate. ## Sign up for my free newsletter We fight for freedom together! Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. This week I was honoured to join Financial Times chief foreign affairs columnist Gideon Rachman for the [latest episode of his podcast](https://www.ft.com/content/ebf63427-9a5c-45aa-b01e-32d7ca5296e5?ref=landsbergis.com). We discussed the implications of the incursions in more depth, and I hope our Western allies will soon pay more attention to the uncomfortable truths I listed. Our Coalition of the Willing is still neither ready nor able. Our "quick and decisive" reactions need to be quicker and more decisive. Ideally, they should be effective deterrents, so the attacks won't continue and we won't have to keep thinking of ways not to deal with them. Friday's tweet about escalation drew a lot of attention and ended up being quoted by the BBC as a deep insight, which is strange, when you consider the utter simplicity of the observation I was making. It's like I tweeted that the sky is blue. > Russia escalates, we do nothing, Russia escalates more, we do nothing, Russia escalates even more, we do nothing... guys, I think I am starting to see a pattern here. > > — Gabrielius Landsbergis🇱🇹 (@GLandsbergis) [September 19, 2025](https://twitter.com/GLandsbergis/status/1969086169292972234?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=landsbergis.com) Many people responded by asking what exactly I suggest Western allies should be doing. Well, I am sure there are many ways we could enforce a red line without triggering WWIII. [Speaking at the recent YES conference in Kyiv](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ShVVvULAeCs&ref=landsbergis.com) I used the example of Taurus. 0:00 /0:24 1× We could simply tell Putin that Ukraine will get Taurus and our blessing to destroy launch sites immediately after an incursion. This deterrent would neither start WWIII, nor cost too much, nor take too much time to build. If we haven't got the guts to push Russia out of Ukraine militarily right now, that's very sad and disappointing. But if we haven't even got the guts to help Ukraine destroy the launch sites of the weapons that rain down on their children nightly – I think that's a horrifying state of affairs, and a shameful stain on our pages of the history books. Instead of asking if we risk starting WWIII, the question is – will we risk stopping it? If you appreciated this article and you would like to support our work, join Friends of Democracy today! [Sign up and support us ](#/portal/signup) To book Gabrielius Landsbergis please [contact](mailto:agent@championsukplc.com) his agent at [Champions](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) [Book Gabrielius Landsbergis ](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) ### White lies won't work forever – but telling the truth could save Europe URL: https://landsbergis.com/white-lies-wont-work-forever-europe/ Last updated: 2025-09-14T11:43:21.000Z Sometimes I hear complaints that Putin will discover our weaknesses if our leaders are too truthful in their public communications. “We need to portray strength,” they say, “Putin is reading our newspapers”. Their argument implies that the truth must be sacrificed for “stronger” strategic communication. Leaders are advised to ignore the reality on the ground to continue exaggerating our capabilities and readiness in the hope that our visible optimism will convince Putin that we are strong. This plan not only aims to fool Putin, but also recommends using governments’ strategic messaging to keep populations believing everything that could possibly be done is being done, and going well. On the contrary, I have always believed that truth is the best medicine. But sometimes I am criticised for not playing along, for refusing to strategically tell today’s white lies. So I decided to critique my instincts and give this important question some thought. ## Sign up for my free newsletter We fight for freedom together! Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Obviously, I agree that Putin and Europeans read the European press and follow the debate that is taking place. I can even agree that it is possible to use strategic communication to fool a large number of your people into thinking that you have things under control. We have seen that working for many years. But I am not so sure about our propaganda’s ability to fool Putin. I know only this – taking an adversary for a fool is a fool's endeavour, so we are probably only fooling ourselves. ## Speaking softly and carrying no sticks Europe’s weakness is an open secret. Even a blind frog that lived under a rock for the last decade might still be able to figure this out if he saw a few tweets, so we can assume Putin is seeing through our attempts to distort reality. Politically the EU is anaemic - our consensus-based institutional framework has been a major obstacle to effectiveness in these current times of confrontation. Even without Hungary and Slovakia’s veto, this framework could still slow down progress in Europe. It is almost certain that the divergent interests of all the different member states would inevitably water down the final draft even if every country agreed on the main parameters of an agreement. Surveys show that a large part of the population of Europe expects governments to deal with the geopolitical issue that is Russia. Some see it as a moral issue – Europe must support the victim of aggression because it is the right thing to do. Those living closer to the war demand more action because they feel personally threatened by Russia. Either way – the genuinely-held and evidence-based beliefs of these millions of people are impossible for politicians to entirely ignore. But even if it was universally accepted that Russia is a threat, or at least a problem, this can still be shrugged off as a “tomorrow” thing. Or in two weeks. Or in fifty days. Kicking the can down the road is a viable strategy if paired with strong statements and gestures in the right direction. Strong statements are much cheaper politically and financially than – for example – the return of universal conscription. Consider the messaging of the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban who, in his complete cynicism, had the audacity to say that he supports Ukraine’s sovereignty after several attempts at helping Putin destroy it. Elections are approaching in Hungary and there are people who find his pro-Putin stance appalling, so he is strategically communicating some lies to calm that part of his society down. The contrast between the tweet and reality is pretty stark. The latest example – the Russian drone attack on Poland – portrays the difference between propaganda and reality quite well. The reality is this: Out of 19 drones, Poland and her allies were able to detect and shoot down only 4\. The US President called the Russian incursion “probably an accident,” and the day after that he added that he is not going to defend anyone. Meanwhile, NATO called their reaction a great show of unity and strength. Putin probably thinks the attack went quite well. 80 percent of his drones were left untouched and Trump’s commitment to Europe is weaker than ever. I hope that the situation will change, and I note that the Polish government announced some smart decisions – one of them being learning from Ukrainian experience in order to be better prepared for the next “accidental” incursion, which is very likely to happen soon. So. What is the responsible way for leaders to communicate all this to their people? If they continue to announce progress and success, their populations will be less and less informed as to the sort of threat Russia poses and what is being done to mitigate it. People swimming in the soup of strategic messaging hear that the situation is not ideal, but they also believe it is being managed, until… eventually the truth comes out and causes a great deal of confusion and discomfort. A week ago, the Baltic States were “taken by surprise” when the US announced a further shift away from Europe. Even though months have passed since the US clearly declared that Europe can no longer depend on the US for its security, their actual withdrawal is somehow “shocking” to many Europeans. How? Because they were told that everything would be OK. Governments chose to placate their people with white lies, instead of preparing them for the unavoidable upcoming challenges. ## Have we tried truth? My last and most important observation is that shielding voters from the stress of geopolitical realities will never produce a real mandate for change when and where it is needed. One of the most often used arguments explaining the reluctance to spend more on defence is “our people do not support that”. I usually respond with this question: Have we really tried explaining the problem at hand? When governments had to tackle the COVID pandemic they didn’t give up and sigh “well, sadly our people will not support Europe borrowing 750 billion euros”. The problem was tangible and very well understood, the facts were communicated, a critical mass of people understood that if we don’t spend big – Europe as it is might very well collapse. Hearing the facts, people mostly went along with the lockdowns, accepted border closures, and the rat race for medical equipment and vaccines was quickly financed. All it took was to tell the people of Europe: This is the plan for how we are going to fix this. And it was fixed, just like most people expected it to be. It was far from painless, but we got through it. The communication of facts saved us. White lies would have discredited governments and fuelled belief in the “alternative facts” that were being spread to weaken the fabric of society. People today do not equate the threat of Russia’s aggression to COVID because they do not yet hear Shaheds flying over their heads. Nobody in Europe is getting killed or raped by gangs of Russian inmates let lose. Yet. But it is not an exaggeration to say that the Russian threat is existential to Europe. Even if only one European country is attacked and left undefended – who knows what would be left of good old institutions after that? I was speaking at a conference recently where, at the end of the panel discussion, the moderator asked the audience if they believe that we are prepared to meet the Russian threat. Out of four hundred people – just a few hands were raised. When he asked who *doesn’t* believe that we are prepared – almost all hands went up. Someone remarked that we need much better strategic communication to convince those who do not believe we are prepared. I responded – those almost four hundred hands are a clear mandate for politicians – people are worried and demanding change. And the only thing left for you to do, Mr. Decisionmaker, is your job. Make the changes, not another strategic can-kicking statement. Some people say that the reality is so shocking that if told as it is, it might paralyse people, rendering them unable to act rather than mobilising them for action. But when I review the official statements made over the last few years I become convinced that morale is not damaged by truth. Low morale is due to one of two things: either a feeling of impotence when governments claim there is nothing more that can be done, or from the realisation that leaders are putting more effort into thinking of white lies than they put into taking the necessary action, leaving us unable to trust them to protect us. I am well aware of the huge disincentives to speak plainly to your electorate and your citizens, but I would like to remind decision-makers of the benefits. Reality can only be denied temporarily, so it pays to offer a real solution, as early as possible, however difficult. Instead of declaring “power” and “unity” it would be more truthful to say: > The situation is bad, we are not united, we wasted years ignoring important lessons, not helping Ukraine as much as we could. But, more importantly, WE CAN CHANGE. We have tackled and completed huge projects in the past, we have been successful, there is no fundamental reason why together we can’t help Ukraine defeat the invaders and secure Europe’s future. And then we could actually do that. If you appreciated this article and you would like to support our work, join Friends of Democracy today! [Sign up and support us ](#/portal/signup) To book Gabrielius Landsbergis please [contact](mailto:agent@championsukplc.com) his agent at [Champions](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) [Book Gabrielius Landsbergis ](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) ### Europe’s summer charm offensive has failed URL: https://landsbergis.com/europes-summer-charm-offensive-has-failed/ Last updated: 2025-09-08T11:04:41.000Z 2025 started with JD Vance making his famous “stepping up” speech in Munich, and alarm bells started ringing. Now it’s autumn, a good time to review European diplomatic achievements so far this year. ## Sign up for my free newsletter We fight for freedom together! Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. ## Unfortunately — Europe didn’t even wake up, let alone step up. Europe instead based its summer security strategy on three pillars: ### 1\. Appeasing President Trump. This pillar can be summarised as paying and praying — paying with tariffs and promises of equipment purchases and worshipping Trump with pilgrimages to DC, video calls and public declarations of devotion. ### 2\. Hoping that Putin will be satisfied with what he currently has. This has been expressed in announcements by European leaders suggesting that brutal realities might force Ukraine to cede territories to Putin, using Baltic or Finnish historical examples. Nothing points to Putin being satisfied with that, but ok, hope springs eternal. ### 3\. Praying that Ukrainians will not get tired An essential component of the European inaction plan is that Ukrainians will continue fighting for both Ukraine and Europe, while Europe finishes its Aperol spritz and figures things out. ## Now what? When the United States announced the cancellation of the Baltic Security Initiative, many were shocked. I was more shocked at how much time we wasted praying that things would magically improve, rather than heeding the warnings and making preparations for this inevitable scenario. So now what? Now we have to prepare for a reduction of US troops in Europe, likely in very significant numbers. And yes, it is possible that troops will be withdrawn from the Baltic region. What else should we be prepared for? Simply what has already been said: Ukraine will most likely be left without US assistance. Russia will no longer be sanctioned because of changes in US strategic calculations. Europe will have to face the Russian threat on its own. And frontline countries will have to figure out a plan B, to resist and win in a post-American Europe. This should not come as a surprise, because we were warned long ago. If we wasted time, that’s on us. As the saying goes: The best times to stop wasting time are ten years ago, and today. And if there is a question about how this should look in practice — look no further than Ukraine. President Zelenskyy might be saying many thank yous, wearing a suit and solemnly praising the American administration, but… at the same time, Ukraine has launched its biggest air raids on Russian oil refineries, reducing oil output by about 20 percent. Europe is simply increasing the volume of its rhetoric as two of the three pillars of its 2025 strategy crumble. Meanwhile, Ukraine is introducing new weapons that will strengthen its position even further. Ukraine is talking softly AND developing a range of new sticks. Of course, Ukrainians would rather fight alongside Americans and Europeans, but even if Europeans and Americans are unwilling — Ukrainians are showing what they can achieve on their own. ## Time to be brave like Ukraine Europe, which has lost its belief in its own ability to fight any war, should be inspired by Ukraine and follow her shining example. If a country of fewer than 40 million people can keep stepping up further, even after three years of war, surely similar progress could be made by pooling the wealth of the EU’s 450 million inhabitants? Ukraine has a plan, and plans to fight. Europe’s plans A, B and C have not stopped the fighting. Putin simply has no need to stop, and quite probably lacks the ability to reverse direction at this point. As we say in Lithuania — all this should be obvious even to a horse. Therefore, Europe now has to develop a plan D for nothing less than Ukraine’s and Europe’s survival. And to paraphrase Churchill — if necessary, we will have to survive alone, even if we receive no support from our transatlantic cousins. It is time to admit that our summer charm offensive didn’t work as well as hoped. This means it’s time to face the hard reality of the still-approaching war which we have failed to avoid with speeches alone. However hard we keep praying for a miracle to stop us sinking, we must finally start rowing for the shore. If you appreciated this article and you would like to support our work, join Friends of Democracy today! [Sign up and support us ](#/portal/signup) To book Gabrielius Landsbergis please [contact](mailto:agent@championsukplc.com) his agent at [Champions](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) [Book Gabrielius Landsbergis ](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) ### The shameful plan to betray Ukraine "de facto, but not de jure" URL: https://landsbergis.com/the-shameful-plan-to-betray-ukraine-de-facto-but-not-de-jure/ Last updated: 2025-09-08T11:06:45.000Z If Ukraine has no choice but to accept “de facto” occupation — that’s because WE failed. Not because Ukrainians failed, not because some mysterious “shit happened”, but because for years we ignored all the warnings, repeated all the mistakes of history, kicked the can down the road and refused to do what it takes to defend the rules and principles that enable sustainable peace and prosperity. This is on us. We are the architects of this de facto defeat, so now we are trying to pretend it came out of nowhere and we did the best we could to stop it. In a spectacular display of unbombed westsplaining, [Mark Rutte](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/nato-secretary-general-rutte-trump-putin-summit-testing/story?id=124520882&ref=landsbergis.com) is suggesting that everything will be OK in the long run, like it was OK in the Baltic States after decades of de facto occupation by jolly old Uncle Joe Stalin. Well, I have shrugged off a lot of dumb hot takes about my country over the last few years, but this one is literally sickening. Rutte is revealing that the latest genius 5D chess move to save Ukraine is to casually throw millions of people into a black hole of oppression, torture, rape, kidnapping, murder and destruction of national identity — “de facto, but not de jure”. And the proponents of this plan will keep a straight face while they cite the misery of the occupation of the Baltic States as a shining example that Ukraine should happily walk into. ## Sign up for my free newsletter We fight for freedom together! Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. In his FT column, [Gideon Rachman](https://www.ft.com/content/f1774ade-72c4-44b0-aad8-2692db1ccea0?ref=landsbergis.com) says little to fill the gap in Rutte’s world view: > "The Soviet Union’s annexation of the Baltic states after 1940 was never legally recognised by the US and most European countries. But it was a fact of life, until, eventually, the Baltic states regained their independence." Yikes, let’s unpack that. The occupation wasn’t “a fact of life”, it was a fact of death. “Eventually” was after decades of deportations, killing, grinding terror and violent attempts to turn everybody into russians. “Regained their independence” was being crushed under Gorbachev’s tanks while western leaders pleaded with us to give up our fight for freedom. So… this is the path to peace we are supposed to offer to Ukraine with a smile? These are the glorious new security guarantees that will erase the shame of the Budapest Agreement and allow Ukrainians to have faith in the future? There are even [US Ambassadors](https://x.com/atrupar/status/1954531864921723174?ref=landsbergis.com) talking about how countries can “earn” certain territories and therefore presumably “deserve” them. Would it be paranoid of me to wonder if we just opened the door for Russia to “earn” Narva and Vilnius “de facto”? If Ukraine continues to fight, you will soon hear mumblings that the “stubborn Ukrainians” refuse to comprehend the genius of this “realistic” peace plan that, in reality, would move Putin’s weapons closer to Kyiv. We will hear more condemnation of Ukraine for daring to complain instead of saying thank you twice. [As I wrote recently](https://landsbergis.com/never-a-good-time-to-allow-the-altering-of-borders-by-force/), I see parallels in Churchill’s abandonment of Eastern Europe to Stalin, and now I see Mark Rutte on TV broadcasting the echoes of that particularly nasty betrayal. So I would ask all decisionmakers discussing their various technical office-based solutions to also talk to victims of Russia’s aggression and learn a little bit more about the “reality on the ground” that these plans are supposed to be dealing with. I would suggest talking to the friends and family of [Viktoriia Roschyna](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2025/russia-detention-ukraine-civilians-occupation/?ref=landsbergis.com), a journalist who was recently laid to rest in Kyiv. Her body was returned after two years in Russian hands, her brain and eyes removed. Ask her parents if they recognise the “reality” presented to them in Alaska. Time and time again you will find that the “realistic” proposals being floated for our security appear naive and insulting to anyone who has any experience of living under occupation by Moscow. > We democracies and self-declared allies of Ukraine should be ashamed by our failure to keep Ukrainians safe. We should be determined to change course, not inspired to invent semantic tools that reduce our responsibility, reward the aggressor and erase the victim’s humanity. When I ask to defend basic principles with honour, am I asking too much? The difference between de facto and de jure does not matter to a woman being raped in front of her children. She cannot comfort them afterwards by telling them their trauma is de facto, not de jure. The difference between de facto and de jure matters only to politicians discussing paper agreements that they know will not work and will not be defended. Only in their unbombed minds can their approach be called “realistic”. If you appreciated this article and you would like to support our work, join Friends of Democracy today! [Sign up and support us ](#/portal/signup) To book Gabrielius Landsbergis please [contact](mailto:agent@championsukplc.com) his agent at [Champions](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) [Book Gabrielius Landsbergis ](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) ### Never a good time to allow the altering of borders by force URL: https://landsbergis.com/never-a-good-time-to-allow-the-altering-of-borders-by-force/ Last updated: 2025-09-08T11:07:17.000Z The current geopolitical moment is often compared to Chamberlain’s betrayal of Czechoslovakia in 1938\. But there is another point in history that could be used as an example equally well. In 1944, Stalin, sensing victory approaching, demanded that part of Poland be recognised by the Allies as part of the Soviet Union. Instead of rejecting the demands, the Allies ultimately put pressure on the Poles to accept Stalin’s redrawn borders. Sounds familiar. ## Sign up for my free newsletter We fight for freedom together! Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. When Polish Prime Minister Mikołajczyk refused to accept the ultimatum, Churchill exploded: > “You are no Government if you are incapable of taking any decision. You are callous people who want to wreck Europe and then to run away to your own troubles… What did you put into the common pool? You may withdraw your divisions if you like. You are absolutely incapable of facing facts. Never in my life have I seen such people.” The British Prime Minister was basically calling the Poles selfish for demanding the preservation of the Polish state. But the Allies had no excuse for leaving Poland to the Soviet Union, betraying a country that had sacrificed so much for the freedom of Europe. What President Trump is doing with Putin should come as no surprise. He never hid the fact that he intends to have a “deal” with Putin. He has shown little interest in what that would mean for Ukraine or for European security. The doing of the deal was always his sole interest. Putin was ready to oblige, but only if the deal was on his terms. Currently he wants part of Ukraine. But his ultimate goal has never changed: he will be going after Ukraine’s – and, when he sees a chance, Europe’s – jugular. And here we are, reading Putin’s script in a Putin–Trump pact. It is also easy to predict what Ukraine might do with this. President Zelensky’s position looks clear: he rejects the pact; there is no way Ukraine can accept a capitulation. Not while it is still able to fight and still has allies that can support that fight. ## The unanswered question is what Europe is prepared to do now. Is Europe going to follow President Zelensky’s example and continue to reject the Putin–Trump pact? I am sure there are those who already think that pressing Ukraine to give up is the best path forward. Some might even think Ukrainians are “callous” for making demands. From the point of view of a war-weary western decisionmaker, the Trump-Putin pact might seem tempting. It might achieve a ceasefire, no matter how temporary, they ponder. It makes the war somebody else’s problem, they say to themselves. And, they say, we need to do what we can to appease President Trump, especially if he were to threaten to abandon Europe. To proponents of the messy redrawing of borders I say: we have been here before. One of the most shameful moments of the Second World War was the abandonment of allies – friends – who fought alongside the Brits and the Americans, leaving them for decades of debilitating Soviet rule, because it was “expedient”, or as they used to say, “there was nothing we could have done.” That defeatist shrugging isn’t so convincing this time. We all know there are things we can do. We can help Ukraine. We can treat Ukraine as a true ally that has been fighting not just alongside us, but for us. There would be no hiding behind empty words. Whereas, endorsing the pact or pressuring Ukraine to accept it would bring generational shame. Victors avoid judgement – that is why we seldom remember the words of Churchill to Mikołajczyk. But Europe is not a victor right now; it is on the path to be the next victim. So, if nothing else, self-preservation must kick in, convincing European countries that allowing the alteration of borders by force would be a suicidal move. And in the end, the Trump-Putin pact’s power depends on others supporting it. The honourable thing to do would be not to support it. If Europe stands with Ukraine, the pact will last for just a short moment in Alaska. If you appreciated this article and you would like to support our work, join Friends of Democracy today! [Sign up and support us ](#/portal/signup) To book Gabrielius Landsbergis please [contact](mailto:agent@championsukplc.com) his agent at [Champions](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) [Book Gabrielius Landsbergis ](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) ### Kasparov and Landsbergis: Europe’s Future Depends on Confrontation, Not Compromise URL: https://landsbergis.com/kasparov-and-landsbergis-europes-future-depends-on-confrontation-not-compromise/ Last updated: 2025-11-25T22:45:40.000Z My latest op-ed is currently on the POLITICO front page, co-written with Garry Kasparov. Our inescapable conclusion is that the EU is risking irrelevance and evaporation unless fundamental changes are made to the Treaty itself. ### [Kasparov and Landsbergis: Europe’s Future Depends on Confrontation, Not Compromise](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/08/03/europe-future-authoritarianism-00490010?ref=landsbergis.com) > ...today’s European leaders continue to hold on to the ideal of a wholly peaceful bloc, touting this commitment to non-aggression as what differentiates it on the international stage. It is as though adapting to the new reality of war would invalidate the EU’s founding mission, when it is precisely the opposite — embracing new, tougher measures is the *only* chance Europe has to save the peace-driven project it has so carefully fostered. [https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/08/03/europe-future-authoritarianism-00490010](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/08/03/europe-future-authoritarianism-00490010?ref=landsbergis.com) --- In case you missed them, this year POLITICO has published two other op-eds of mine: [On the plight of the unbombed farmers of Eastern EuropeFarmers are, understandably, demanding safeguards and compensation. The efficient and fair way to achieve that is by accepting Ukraine as a full EU member.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/46/1646b851-f8fd-48ff-9390-fa25f8de699d/content/images/icon/favicon-512x512-1.png)POLITICOGabrielius Landsbergis![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/46/1646b851-f8fd-48ff-9390-fa25f8de699d/content/images/thumbnail/12008886-scaled.jpg)](https://www.politico.eu/article/eastern-europe-ukraine-eu-russia-invasion-war-poland-farmers/?ref=landsbergis.com) [Ukraine will win — with or without our permissionIf we’re really standing with Ukrainians, our role is to support their choices. None of us may claim the right or authority to tell them when and what to surrender.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/46/1646b851-f8fd-48ff-9390-fa25f8de699d/content/images/icon/favicon-512x512.png)POLITICOGabrielius Landsbergis![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/46/1646b851-f8fd-48ff-9390-fa25f8de699d/content/images/thumbnail/Gabrielius-Landsbergis-scaled.jpg)](https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-will-win-with-or-without-our-permission/?ref=landsbergis.com) If you appreciated this article and you would like to support our work, join Friends of Democracy today! [Sign up and support us ](#/portal/signup) To book Gabrielius Landsbergis please [contact](mailto:agent@championsukplc.com) his agent at [Champions](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) [Book Gabrielius Landsbergis ](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) ### The End of the Enlargement Dream? URL: https://landsbergis.com/the-end-of-the-enlargement-dream/ Last updated: 2025-07-22T16:54:39.000Z Every day, for 237 days straight, in all weathers, the Georgian people have protested against the takeover of their once-democratic and still pro-Western country. It has become increasingly difficult to gather on Rustaveli Street, but still they gather. Nobody comes to meet them; government windows remain dark during the evening rallies. But the government hasn’t been idling since the rallies began. First, a batch of protesters were detained and jailed. Some as young as 18 have received years-long prison sentences — for “planning terrorist activities.” I met their parents in Tbilisi. They can hardly contain their tears, but most are proud of their children. They say they come from generations of protesters. Grandmothers protested against the Soviet Union, were deported or imprisoned. Now, as if without pause, their descendants are raising similar demands to the pro-Russian Georgian Dream government. After the imprisonments failed to stop the protests, the government imposed fines on almost anyone demonstrating. When funds were created to support those who could not pay, the government targeted the organisers of the funds. A phony commission was established in parliament to investigate past events. When opposition leaders refused to appear before it, they were thrown in jail. NGOs now operate in a legal grey zone — awaiting shutdown, or worse. It feels as if the country is slowly going silent. Once vibrant — with different political parties, intellectuals, and NGOs — it now increasingly resembles a Central Asian republic rather than what it once was: a candidate for the European Union. Some choose to blame the country itself — the first elections that brought Georgian Dream to power were democratic and accepted by the international community. True, but until recently GD was very good at masquerading and hiding its pro-Russian inclinations. Even now, with clownish consistency, its representatives continue to declare that they are on the path to Europe. Well, yes — if there exists some alternative version of Europe known only to them. At first, many in Georgia and Europe believed that, despite differences in attitude, GD was genuinely interested in Europe. But now elections are no longer representative. Numerous severe violations make it impossible to claim that the Georgian people are being allowed to choose. I sincerely hope that what is left of the opposition will not participate in the autumn’s municipal elections. The rules in place will only mimic democracy, while in practice they provide cover for an authoritarian takeover. Some blame the opposition — that for too long it was mired in constant squabbles and disagreements, losing sight of the main objective: not to lose the country to a dictator. Maybe for too long, the opposition’s objective was getting Saakashvili out of prison, while the country itself was becoming a prison. But it is too late to search for guilt within Georgia. We should ask what Europe could have done differently. Charles Michel, President of the European Council during the last Commission, attempted to build a diplomatic off-ramp for Georgian Dream. Had they changed the laws and halted the backsliding, Brussels would have opened its doors wider. I met the Georgian Prime Minister in the summer of 2021\. He seemed genuinely interested in continuing pro-European reforms and was willing to listen to advice. But the pretense was quickly abandoned. The reforms stopped. European advice was rejected. And here we are today. But after Michel, Europe seemingly stopped being interested. No new initiatives emerged. Were it not for the stream of statements from the European Parliament, one might conclude that Europe’s geopolitical reach has pulled back from Georgia altogether. Some say Ukraine consumes almost all the bandwidth of European foreign policy, but it’s almost comical to suggest that thousands of officials and diplomats are overwhelmed. I would argue this is not a matter of capacity — it’s a failure to grasp the importance of what Europe does or doesn’t do in Georgia. The Georgian people — proud pro-Europeans — now feel that Europe has turned its back not on their government, but on them and on their true European dream. Their plight — hundreds of days of protest, the loss of liberty and democracy — is not considered to be a major event in Brussels. Georgians still remember the mood of 2008: Georgia was surely becoming part of NATO and the EU. Now, they feel deceived and discarded. It must be a chilling realization for pro-European communities in other aspiring countries: Ukraine, Moldova, and Armenia. How much is “candidate status” really worth, if a clampdown on democracy can barely shift the needle in Brussels? The question arises: maybe all of this is a charade. Maybe enlargement is not real. I find it hard to imagine that in 2003, when Lithuania stood on the threshold of the EU, we would have been allowed to go ahead and join if our government had acted as Georgian Dream does today. Romania and Bulgaria were not allowed to join in 2004 — the mismatches were evident, and the Commission was clear about them. Only after hard reforms did the doors open in 2007. It’s as if Europe wants to appear to be preparing for enlargement while in practice it wastes the promise of enlargement as leverage. Countries now believe in this goal much less than the Baltics did in 2004. And here lies my greatest worry: how will all of this reflect on Ukraine and other candidate countries? If Brussels fails in Georgia, Brussels could also fail in those — despite insisting that Ukraine is the center of EU geopolitics. Ukraine is left without a clear European timetable. Talks about decoupling Moldova and Ukraine are heard ever louder. That would be a mistake of enormous proportions. What happens when the realisation that the enlargement is not really happening sinks in? That the European future is no longer a leverage that could be used? What happens is a feeling of resignation. We witnessed this in Georgia. And I am increasingly worried that we might start seeing the same in Ukraine. The dismantling of the independent anticorruption bodies is a step in that direction. Here I would urge my Ukrainian friends: Don’t go there, for your own sake, regardless of Brussels’ demands. Don’t choose the path of Georgian Dream. And here I would urge my European friends - there has never been a more important time to step in. Don’t repeat the European mistakes in Georgia. Because what we are seeing is the potential beginning of a decline in trust and a drift away from European values. Getting real about European enlargement means more than a “very concerned” tweet once in a while, it means taking a clear position when there is progress, it means declaring a timeline and a European commitment to see candidates become members. It also means taking action when there is backsliding. If the EU fails to take action now, the whole region could be lost. Inspiration through strength and commitment could turn back the tide. ### Thank you for your inattention to this matter URL: https://landsbergis.com/thank-you-for-your-inattention-to-this-matter/ Last updated: 2025-09-08T11:08:14.000Z In 1961, Daniel Boorstin coined the term pseudo-event — an event staged for its own sake. The goal is not to say or do anything meaningful, but to keep the public engaged. The observer’s attention becomes the objective. The pinnacle of the pseudo-event category is professional wrestling, sometimes called "athletic theatre". No one is actually competing. The crowd cheers, picks favourites and watches victories. But nobody truly wins anything, it's theatre. > To me, watching politics in recent years feels like watching professional wrestling. Recent announcements that “Trump is finally fed up with Putin” are the perfect example. I get questions from the press: “Is this real? Is White House policy changing?” I mean, come on… let’s look at the substance. Take the Reuters headline: a possible $300 million delivery of equipment to Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russia announces next year’s defense budget — roughly $300 billion. It’s like we’ve donated a phantom weapon to fight a very real war. But the headlines are nice. They keep people reading. And those who seek hope can keep hoping — maybe this time, it’s real. A few weeks ago we were asking — have the Iranian nuclear bomb sites really been destroyed? Or was it just one more episode of the show? We might never know the truth. We only know what was shown in last week's episode. It is quite possible that Iran might continue to develop their bomb, not entirely unhappy about the script. All they had to do was accept the role of “the country that was defeated” and then continue to escalate against their neighbours and Ukraine. You could say this is just Trump’s show. But it’s happening on both sides of the Atlantic — and it has been for a while. Remember the “coalition of the willing” and their “crippling sanctions”? It looked like a stunt slap: missing the opponent just enough not to hurt him. Taurus missiles? I am starting to doubt that they even exist. And remember Biden’s big announcement: Ukraine will finally get ATACMS. Headlines roared. Days later we found out: Only eleven missiles were delivered. ## Sign up for my free newsletter We fight for freedom together! Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. ### Why is the spectacle necessary? Who demands it? In the US, the answer is simple — the electorate demands a good show. Politicians produce it. Their goal is to keep people entertained, buzzing about the last episode, on tenterhooks for the next. Who’s the villain this week — Zelensky or Putin? Who gets hit next — Canada or Brazil? For the producers of this show — it is just professional wrestling. What is unfortunate for us viewers is that real life continues nevertheless. Putin doesn’t care if he’s called a villain this week. He’s not emotionally moved by such categorisation. He wants to obliterate Ukraine anyway, with or without our theatrical framing. Outside the US, other Western leaders continue the theatrics. Are they really trying to scare Putin? That would be naive. It’s not difficult for him to see through their press-releases and figure out what’s really happening. Crippling sanctions? One call to Budapest or Bratislava to check if all is well, and, as always, it is. \*laughs in putin\* Five percent in ten years, except for anyone who doesn’t feel like it? Weeell good luck, comrades. Ten Patriot missiles out of thirty that were supposed to go to Ukraine? Weeell, that is indeed “a step in the right direction”, from Putin’s point of view. Perhaps the real aim is to demobilise supporters in the West that genuinely want to help Ukraine. Public pressure is asking for a stronger position and more assistance, so pseudo-events of pseudo-value are created to satisfy demand. The truth takes a while to come out — especially when governments declare all future support “classified.” And that’s how it works. You’re told something is being done, but unless you’re ringside and viewing from exactly the right angle, how can you tell if the wrestler actually landed that jump? Or missed by a foot? In past wars, governments had to rally their populations — to convince them why it mattered. Today, some of the messaging seems designed to avoid real mobilisation. Instead of geopolitical strategy, we get entertainment, but the real world doesn’t stop. We’re just seeing less of it. If you are looking for an example of real action, look at the current German debate on defense spending. It’s real. If the proposals are implemented they will make a real difference. The Chancellor is struggling to defend it in the Bundestag, and he has to put his own political future on the line — but that’s precisely what makes it matter. If he pulls it off, Europe just might be safer. For further examples of real action, take Denmark, Sweden or Finland silently but openly sending new tranches of support to Ukraine. Not for headlines and attention but to help Ukrainians win the war. But what is scary is that there are so few of these examples — the last remnants of good old responsible statecraft. ## What to do? We must demand less show, more substance. A “good headline” should be one about significant and game-changing amounts of support being already on the way to the front lines, not awaiting a meeting about a vote about a signature in two weeks. To win in Ukraine we need to commit to much, much more than even our biggest current commitments can cover. New programmes, new initiatives, new money. This requires embracing life in the reality which pseudo announcements are not altering. One shipment of rockets is a good thing… which in no way changes the trajectory of the war. Staying the current course fundamentally signals conciliation with defeat. This is worse than mere appeasement. We are not even trying to win, or to prevent a larger war. Many who should be making difficult decisions are hoping that theatrical distractions will cover the tracks of their inaction long enough for the problem to disappear or to become someone else’s problem. The reality we live in isn’t a reality show. But if we keep treating it like one, then the fires in Kyiv will become the season finale. If you appreciated this article and you would like to support our work, join Friends of Democracy today! [Sign up and support us ](#/portal/signup) To book Gabrielius Landsbergis please [contact](mailto:agent@championsukplc.com) his agent at [Champions](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) [Book Gabrielius Landsbergis ](https://champions-speakers.co.uk/speaker-agent/gabrielius-landsbergis?ref=landsbergis.com) ### NATO agrees 10-year plan to prepare for invasion that could happen sooner URL: https://landsbergis.com/nato-agrees-10-year-plan-to-prepare-for-invasion-that-could-happen-sooner/ Last updated: 2025-06-25T17:40:47.000Z Was this the worst NATO Summit ever? “Well, at least it wasn’t a disaster,” a friend said when we discussed the matter. And I had to agree — it could have been much worse. For example, we might not have had NATO anymore. But we still do. So, technically, yay. As usual, here’s a couple of observations from a safe distance — this time brought to you from the so-called Public Forum in The Hague. The 5% target sounds like a big deal. You will hear enough praise out there, so I’ll focus on the problems. 💡 **For booking Gabrielius Landsbergis please contact his agent at Chartwell Speakers* ***john@chartwellspeakers.com** [Book Gabrielius Landsbergis](https://www.chartwellspeakers.com/speaker/gabrielius-landsbergis/?ref=landsbergis.com) ## Sign up for my free newsletter We fight for freedom together! Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. ### 1. First: nine countries still do not meet the 2% spending target. Spain is declaring that reaching 3.5% in TEN years is not realistic. But it would only require Spain to add roughly 0.18% of GDP every year for ten years to get there. Belgium is saying there’s truth in what Spain is saying. Plenty of others, I’m pretty sure, are thinking the same - if choosing not to say it aloud. BUT: since the declaration is confirmed, the question can be raised. If there are such wide disagreements in the alliance, does the text mean anything? Why should doubters act if they know others aren’t going to lift a finger? So therefore it is rather likely that the biggest chunk of new funding will be spent by those who are directly at risk - those on the Eastern Flank. The core problem here is threat assessment. Many of the allies are oblivious to the existential threat to the Eastern Flank. They are willing to cover over a lack of strategic thinking with a paper-based commitment. And because of that, NATO may falter at its potentially darkest hour - because we would just not be ready. Lithuania can spend 100% of its GDP but it would still not be enough to cover for those who are not meeting their commitments. Additionally, the public won’t be able to press governments to do more — paper targets will be announced, and most will pretend that something is being done. Until the moment we’re forced to fight, we may not even know the real situation. ### 2. Ukraine is falling through the cracks. It was a relief that Ukraine was mentioned in the declaration — but in far more ambiguous terms than before. It feels like the chance we had in 2023 or 2024 has been wasted. Ukraine could have been invited. Should have been invited. Now, even the famous “very well lit bridge to NATO” seems like an awkward thing to say between allies. What a waste. ### 3. Trump. Conflicting announcements about Article 5 made many confused and worried. Is the President of the US implying that the US isn’t sure whether European countries should be defended?Later, that was dispelled and explained. But many remain confused. On the plus side — if WE are confused, Putin most likely is as well. Strategic ambiguity is in play. So again yay, technically not a disaster. The real situation will become clear when the US announces the results of its posture review. If there are changes in troop deployments in Europe — especially along the Eastern Flank — that might be the signal Putin is waiting for. ### 4. Lastly, I cannot find the words to describe the communication chosen by the Secretary General. I feel I might speak for a significant part of Europeans — it’s tasteless. The wording appears to have been stolen from the adult entertainment industry. It reduces Europe to the state of a beggar — pitiful before our Transatlantic friends and Eastern opponents alike. Whatever the goal was — it is disgraceful. > What we are witnessing may be the most reckless gamble of our generation. If somehow the West manages to deter the Russians, help the Ukrainians, rebuild credibility, and restore order — well, all will be forgotten and forgiven. But, God forbid, if not — all of this, the paper commitments, the gushings of weakness and meekness, will be remembered as one of the most shameful episodes in modern history. ****Have you said thank you once?** If you appreciated this article and you would like to support my work, join Friends of Democracy today! [Sign up for a free trial ](#/portal/signup) ### The Art of Lukashenko's Deal in Belarus URL: https://landsbergis.com/the-art-of-lukashenkos-deal-in-belarus/ Last updated: 2025-06-23T20:10:26.000Z It is important to celebrate the release of 14 political prisoners from Belarus, including Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya's husband Siarhei Tsikhanouski. But let’s not forget that for Lukashenko, political prisoners are just hostages or bargaining chips. Whenever possible, he seeks to extract the highest possible price for them. ## Sign up for my free newsletter We fight for freedom together! Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. This has been his consistent pattern in Belarus since the early 2000s: first a wave of repression, then the arrests of opponents, then the West announces some sanctions. After some time, a few prisoners are released, sanctions are eased and most importantly — Luksahenko’s political legitimacy is strengthened. And he repeats this cycle every few years, topping up his reputation as a gatekeeper that the West must engage with. Since the stolen 2020 election, sanctions have been imposed in several waves: first, in response to the brutal post-election repressions, then for the hijacking of a Ryanair flight in May 2021 and most recently for complicity in Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. The most painful, and therefore effective sanctions have been those targeting the potash sector — specifically the state-owned company Belaruskali. Potash is Belarus’s most valuable export, and Belaruskali has long served as Lukashenko’s personal slush fund. The most convenient export route for land-locked Belarus runs through Lithuania, whose railways and ports offer the shortest path to the sea. Lithuania insists, rightly, that facilitating Belarusian trade contradicts its national security interests, and has imposed sanctions at the national level. This means that even if US and EU sanctions were lifted, it would be impossible for Lukashenko to export his potash, or anything else, via Lithuanian roads, rail and ice-free port. And so, it should be obvious to us that Lukashenko is opening up his playbook again, offering to trade prisoners (hostages) for sanctions relief that would be hugely lucrative for his regime and for him personally. To anyone blinded by the release of 14 prisoners and considering easing sanctions, here’s three reminders: First and foremost, over a thousand political prisoners remain behind bars in Belarus, meaning that Lukashenko released less than 2% of them. Secondly, Lukashenko has still not been held accountable for hijacking a civilian passenger flight, or for the illegal migration wave that he organised. Most people have forgotten this happened, perhaps because it sounds like something out of a bad movie, not possible in reality. Thirdly, Lukashenko continues to aid and abet Russia’s horrific war against Ukraine. And while many in the world are focused on Iran, it is worth recalling a few facts on that topic: • In March 2023, Belarus and Iran signed a long-term defense cooperation roadmap covering drones, missiles, cyber, and logistics. • In July 2023, Belarus’s defense minister signed a memorandum in Tehran to explore Shahed-style drone production. • On July 3, 2024, Belarus showcased these drones — Shahed‑136s rebranded as “Nomad” or “Kochevnik” — in its Independence Day parade, falsely claiming they were domestically developed. Tel Aviv and Kyiv are bombarded using the very same drones, most of them produced in the very same factories. Lukashenko is very much part of the gang. I am relieved that the 14 Belarusian political prisoners are no longer behind bars. But that must not become an excuse to abandon all logic and give in to this dictator’s age-old games. There is no reason to march to his repetitive tune for another decade, and another. Europe must not cave in to Lukashenko’s cynical demands for sanction relief, and Lithuania must of course hold the line on threats to its national security. Lithuania’s allies should be offering equal treatment to all representatives of the axis of chaos. Nobody is hugging Khameini, and nobody should be hugging Lukashenko. 💡 **For booking Gabrielius Landsbergis please contact his agent at Chartwell Speakers* ***john@chartwellspeakers.com** [Book Gabrielius Landsbergis](https://www.chartwellspeakers.com/speaker/gabrielius-landsbergis/?ref=landsbergis.com) ****Have you said thank you once?** If you appreciated this article and you would like to support my work, join Friends of Democracy today! [Sign up for a free trial ](#/portal/signup) ### We are shocked again that Putin is asking for the same thing again URL: https://landsbergis.com/we-are-shocked-again-that-putin-is-asking-for-the-same-thing-again/ Last updated: 2025-06-11T08:11:35.000Z Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister recently stated that, in order to achieve peace, NATO must “withdraw” from the Baltic states. Many found this shocking—but the demand is not new. ## Sign up for my free newsletter We fight for freedom together! Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. As early as the 1990s, when it became clear that newly independent states from the former Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Union might join NATO, the Alliance sought to assuage Russian concerns by signing the NATO-Russia Founding Act in 1997\. The document aimed to mitigate Russian objections to NATO’s enlargement. One of its key political commitments was that NATO would refrain from deploying “substantial” permanent combat forces in the territory of new member states. In return, the Act reaffirmed core international principles, including respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity, and the UN Charter. Russia has since repeatedly violated these very principles - most notably with its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Just prior to that invasion, Russia issued a list of demands to Ukraine and the West. Its central demand to NATO: a rollback to the Alliance’s 1997 borders - effectively requiring the withdrawal of NATO forces and infrastructure from all countries that joined after that year. While NATO declared the Founding Act “dead” in political terms following the invasion, it never formally repudiated or denounced it. So de jure, the document still stands. And one could argue it remains de facto in force as well, since there are still no substantial (i.e., larger than brigade-level) permanent NATO deployments in Eastern Europe. U.S. forces in Poland remain on a rotational basis, and the forthcoming German brigade, even if permanently stationed in Lithuania, is still presented as a non-substantial force, within agreed limits. Eastern flank members have repeatedly called for the Act to be formally declared null and void, arguing that it creates a two-tiered NATO in which where some countries are less defended than others. Their calls have met stiff resistance from certain allies, and the Act still remains. Why is the dead agreement not being binned? Maybe because some Western policymakers still believe that maintaining the optics of restraint might help by avoiding escalation. The extension of the de-escalation doctrine seems to be that if NATO avoids provoking Russia, Moscow might be persuaded to limit its aggression to Ukraine and refrain from challenging NATO directly. But Russia’s actions—and its own public declarations—show this conflict is not just about Ukraine. It is a broader imperial project aimed at resurrecting Russia’s sphere of influence and undermining the West. Moscow has said this explicitly and repeatedly - yet the West still acts surprised. And whenever the West gives ground - Russia just takes it and asks for more, calling it "justified grievances". And it will just continue like that until Russia is stopped. During the Cold War, NATO stationed 400,000 troops along the border with the Warsaw Pact. Such numbers were considered essential to credible deterrence. Today, we cannot expect to deter Russia effectively while self-imposing limitations - especially when Moscow imposes none on itself. The only viable strategy toward Russia is one of deterrence and defense—not appeasement based on obsolete agreements. Germany’s intelligence chief has again warned that Russia may soon test NATO’s resolve—with some little green men. That warning must be followed not with business as usual or slow deliberation, but with fast and decisive action that strengthens deterrence—not five or ten years from now, but immediately. The NATO - Russia Founding act was a naive idea to begin with. Keeping it on life-support now is a dangerous choice, allowing Russia to push the narrative that the West is violating all the agreements it signed, not Russia. Russia’s demand that NATO must return to its 1997 borders is implying that the West has in some way violated the agreement of 1997, which it has not. And by allowing this agreement to continue existing de jure we are giving this narrative credibility and life. The NATO - Russia Founding act should be declared null and void. NATO defence should have never been two-tier and Vilnius should be defended as defiantly as Berlin or London. ****Have you said thank you once?** If you appreciated this article and you would like to support my work, join Friends of Democracy today! [Sign up for a free trial ](#/portal/signup) ### Time for Canada to help Europe step up. My speech at CANSEC2025. URL: https://landsbergis.com/time-for-canada-to-help-europe-step-up-my-speech-at-cansec2025/ Last updated: 2025-06-05T17:40:26.000Z On May 29th, 2025, I gave a keynote speech at CANSEC2025, Canada's largest defence industry conference. My intention was to encourage the Canadian defence industry to join me in my efforts to wake Europe up and make it ready to deter Russia, or, if necessary, to fight back. As the US signals stepping down in Europe, there are many opportunities for Canada to do its part to step in and fill the gap, together with the growing European defence industry. Hopefully I inspired more Canadians to join us. **For booking Gabrielius Landsbergis please contact his agent at Chartwell Speakers* ***john@chartwellspeakers.com** ### The full text of my speech is here: --- Dear Ladies and Gentlemen, What a great honour to address such a distinguished audience. Let me start by saying a few words about my background and why the organizers of this distinguished event thought I might have a perspective worth sharing with you. My name is Gabrielius Landsbergis. Until December of last year, I had the honour of serving as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania. I was born during the Soviet occupation. Among my earliest memories are my parents and grandparents telling me stories of pre-war Free Lithuania. I was told about German and Russian troops taking turns to invade our country. And I was told that we should never lose hope for freedom. I remember going to independence rallies with my mother. I remember her hurrying me away from police officers when they began attacking the crowds with batons. I remember the sound of Soviet tanks rolling into the streets of Vilnius in 1991 — less than a year after we declared our independence. I remember the picture of the last Soviet soldier leaving my country. So it is not an exaggeration to say that in Lithuania, we cried tears of joy when we joined the EU and NATO. Finally, after decades of fighting for freedom, we were back where we belonged — in the West. And I’m sure many of you who have visited Lithuania would agree: the transformation since then has been phenomenal. We were 50 years behind, and now we’re not behind at all. If you ever need to annoy a Lithuanian, call their country “post-Soviet”. We do not accept that our country was ever Soviet, so it can’t be post-Soviet either. A more correct term would be “never-Soviet”. Lithuania has the dubious distinction of needing three national days — one to commemorate the coronation of our first King in the thirteenth century, and two to mark both our liberations from Moscow. You can understand why we are so strongly against the idea of needing to do that again. You can also now understand what we felt like watching Russia attack Georgia in 2008, then Ukraine in 2014, then full-scale in February 2022. I remember attending a meeting of European Foreign Ministers just days before the invasion. A colleague had shown me a video, recorded by an OSCE observer near the contact line — a seemingly endless column of old Russian T-72 tanks rolling on the Russian side of the border. That shaky video hit me: these were the same tanks the Soviets used to crush Lithuanians in my city. It is not an overreaction to think that if the international community allows them to return to Ukraine, they might return to Lithuania, and keep rolling West. For four years as minister, I stood with Ukraine. I did everything a representative from a small country could do. I offered all the help my country could and I did my best to hold our allies accountable, I pushed them to do more. Firstly, because it was the right thing to do — victims must be defended, enemies defeated, justice restored, compensation paid and abducted children returned. But also because, in Lithuania, we knew: if Ukraine fails to withstand the assault, Putin will turn his ambitions towards us. When we say we must thank Ukraine for defending us, we aren’t just being polite. We mean it. Lithuania lacks strategic depth — our entire territory spans just 300 kilometers. But because of the heroic sacrifices made by Ukrainians, Russian forces are stuck 800 kilometers away. After the Cold War, we in the East experienced how quickly you can get high on freedom and hold on to the belief that history has truly ended. Even more than Westerners, we believed the future could only get better, that wars were only for distant lands, not for Europe. But now, most of us are spending well over 2% of our GDP on defence. Poland is a shining example. The Baltics are following suit. So are the Nordics and much of Central Europe. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine restarted history. The war is also changing the EU. Designed to prevent war, its institutions were built around consensus-based decisions. That made them slow — sometimes embarrassingly so — but it also made us peaceful. It’s now taking time for Europe to adjust to a lack of peace. It is grudgingly difficult to convince your people that the money needs to be borrowed and invested, to recruit, to train, to coordinate and do that with a ticking clock, but it’s gradually being done. And the war is NOT the only reason for stepping up. The US threats to step down are pushing Europe to do more. ## Sign up for my free newsletter We fight for freedom together! Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. So that’s how I found myself here, talking to you. And I would like to pose a question. And if we find the answer, we will know where to go from here. The question is this: ## Why is Europe still not where we would like it to be? Why, in the third year of the full scale invasion, the 11th year after the war started and during the SECOND Trump administration we in Europe are still not where we would like to be armed, able to deter enemies and equipped to assist partners and friends. One answer is inertia. For years Europeans did not believe that Russia would ever be interested in wide scale escalation. The belief was that with a combination of transatlantic security guarantees to Europe and economic incentives to Russia it would be possible to keep Putin's ambitions, and decrepit military forces, in check. When I say in check, I mean that a certain level of escalation in the minds of politicians was permissible - as long as it did not threaten Europe proper. During that time, Europeans said all the right things, but unfortunately did very little preparation. After the 2022 invasion there was hope that the situation would change dramatically and European factories would start rolling out new tanks, howitzers and ammunition. This happened, but not to the extent that one could have hoped. The inertia of unshakeable trust in Transatlantic deterrence, and a failure to see the centrality of Ukraine in the defence of Europe led us to a point of harsh realisation that Europe has wasted decades of preparation. Every conversation I had with defence industry representatives during the years of war would end with “I’m not building anything until you show me the money”. And that was the crux of the problem - Europe would talk nice but spend little. And business leaders, Putin, or anyone who is good at math, could see right through it. As a Lithuanian, I must of course take care to thank our Western allies more than once. Whenever another baby step is taken, I must show gratitude and whisper to myself “better late than never”. When another weapons system is donated, late, with insufficient ammo and with orders not to use it against Russia too much, I must applaud and whisper to myself “better than nothing”. But I think you all now understand why I argue so frequently for more. Now, after the snooze button was hit on every alarm since 2008, we are finally starting to see our leaders talk about serious money. The European ReArm plan might be the first step in the right direction - first of all it allows countries to spend more than the Maastricht defecit ceiling. An extra 1.5 percent of GDP can be spent on defence. That is nothing to sneer at - it will bring substantial money to the sector. Germany’s leap will be biggest - half a trillion euros in defence spending is going to make a lot of difference, the sheer amount will drive multiplication - more private money will come into the sector. This commitment could also encourage other - more doubtful countries, who could borrow more, but are reluctant to do that at the moment. I count on Europe to figure out a common budget for defence. ReArm does not do enough to leverage our collective buying power, countries are mostly left to operate alone. That means that smaller countries, like mine, are at a disadvantage because their smaller orders end up at the far end of the waiting list. Let’s remember that the Eastern Flank is mostly made up of smaller countries. I am of course biased, but I hope that you also find it unfair that the area under the greatest threat is less able to arm itself despite spending the largest percentage of GDP on defence. A common defence fund for Europe would distribute the load equally among members and would allow much more investment, with faster delivery times and lower borrowing costs. That would be the aim we should focus on. ## The American Elephant in the Room And now I would like to discuss the elephant in the room, your southern neighbours, and forecast their leader’s effect on the future of my continent. Trump is not going away, his disruption will continue, the uncertainty will increase. That makes one thing certain for me. Europe, whether or not it wants to, will be forced to transform its role in global security from that of a client to that of a donor - to itself and to Ukraine. As Trump started his second term, Europe was already aware that Trump was not happy about European freeloading. But nobody was prepared for what was said by Vice President JD Vance during the Munich security conference. His was not a push for Europe to do more, it was a push that could lead Europe to tumble off a cliff edge. The situation in Europe has never been more dangerous. Europe has not been preparing, and we have suddenly been notified that we can no longer depend on the US for security. The whole world now knows how vulnerable we are. Is article 5 still in place? Can we trust the US nuclear umbrella? How is all of this being perceived by our adversaries? These were the questions European leadership started silently asking. To help answer these questions, I will try to illustrate the situation from the viewpoints of three groups of actors: The Disruptors, The Defenders and The Allies. ### The Disruptors Putin and Trump both bet their farms on the power of disruption. The chaos they cause is predictable in that they always choose to cause it. Putin is far from finished and his ambitions are far from satisfied. Some of those around him doubted the wisdom of attacking Ukraine, and some of them fell out of windows. But today, in my estimation, those doubters have been proven wrong. Yes, the war has been costly. But from the Kremlin’s point of view, it’s working. Russia is closer to “correcting” what Putin calls the geopolitical mistakes of the 20th century. And he’s not done yet. If he wins in Ukraine, he will be in a good position to threaten others. Donald Trump is enthusiastically disrupting the European security architecture — creating, alongside Putin, a perfect storm. Europe today faces not only its greatest external threat, but also uncertainty about its main ally’s commitment. Deterrence depends on trust and belief. The enemy must be convinced that we have the political will and capability to retaliate if attacked. However, in recent months, the political will has started to look very shaky. This may already be shifting Putin’s calculations, encouraging him to throw even more chips in. Remember — for deterrence to be effective, the only person who has to believe in Article 5 is Putin. I doubt he believes in as strongly as before. And now to the second group. ### The Defenders I won’t recount all of Ukraine’s battlefield achievements — many of you know them well. But what’s most remarkable is the fight happening right now, today. It’s not like 2022 or 2023\. Today, Ukraine is fighting largely with its own innovations. Not just new technology, but battlefield doctrine — reimagined in real-time. Every night, hundreds — sometimes thousands — of drones strike behind enemy lines. They slow Russian forces. They deny artillery and armor near the front. These are invaluable lessons — lessons Ukraine is teaching its allies. The next war — if it comes — could look a lot like this one. And it could again be against Russia. What Ukraine is building now allows it to put up a fight. Scaled tenfold or a hundredfold, it would allow not just defence — but deterrence. The Defenders remain on a knife-edge. Russia won’t mobilize yet, because their society might not tolerate it. Meanwhile, Ukraine holds on for meaningful support. If we help now — Ukraine might succeed. Those who fear escalation should remember that it is possible to push Russia’s cost of escalation past the limit. If you were here for the first half of my speech, you will know that we did that before and we can do it again. But the window won’t be open forever. The third grouping I want to talk about is: ### The Allies I am sure the upcoming NATO summit will offer many affirmations of unity and resolve. But beyond that, we must also think about Plan B. If we cannot convince the US that a stable transatlantic alliance is in its clear interest, we must do all we can to deter Putin’s escalations while we wait for the US to realise their mistake. By the way, when I say “deter escalation” I am **not** referring to bribing Putin with trade deals or territorial concessions, because that doesn’t deter his escalation, it merely encourages it. So, while The Allies wait for the US to come round, there is a lot that Canada, the United Kingdom, and other partners can do to build a security architecture that would preserve peace through this disruptive period. I will end my speech with five strongly recommended ways for them to achieve just that. ## Recommendations First of all, you might remember the movie "Don't Look Up", where the world was gripped by denial of the threat of an incoming meteorite. Governments tried to calm the panic by suggesting to their populations that it would be better not to look at the sky. That, as you can imagine, did not solve the meteorite problem. If we continue behaving like the governments in the movie - the geopolitical impact will be brutal. So my first recommendation is this: Leaders must start being straight with their people, explaining reality rather than sugarcoating it. The threat is real and lies aren’t going to make it go away. Secondly, I would again say: Prepare seriously for the serious situation ahead. Invest not just what's left in the spreadsheet of the old program, start new programs, create new frameworks, increase all the numbers by orders of magnitude. And yes that might require a rethinking of the social contract between leaders and voters. That is why my first recommendation was about being honest with taxpayers. Thirdly, buying tanks is not enough. The Allies must prepare for the war of tomorrow, not the war of yesterday. And there is no better way to do that than to learn from Ukraine. I am not suggesting that traditional NATO methods will not work, but we have to be reminded that those plans were prepared for the optimal situation - with full intelligence, preparedness and what's most important - political will. Now the enemy is not going to give us the luxury of that kind of situation. He is not going to wait for the ideal situation FOR US, he would attack when we are at our weakest, unprepared and unwilling. And that is where old doctrine might shatter. None of us planned the defence of Ukraine because the country was supposed to fall in three days. Almost a million injured and dead Russians later, the country has devised technology and methods to defend their country even, to put it lightly, in a suboptimal scenario. We need to learn how they do it, because our own scenarios will probably be suboptimal too. My fourth recommendation to The Allies after the cracks appeared in our friendship with the US: Be present in Europe. For years to come Europe is going to be a major geopolitical theater. Europeans will undergo a radical socioeconomic change for which they will need partners. In some scenarios Europe might find itself with more money than the ability to spend it. We in this room are well aware that the US, deliberately and proactively, is burning its credibility when it comes to selling arms to partner countries. At least for a while, we will see more people and more countries avoiding doing business with the US. My fifth and final recommendation is more meditative. The news cycle moves so fast, we sometimes forget that reality doesn’t. It will take a while for stability to return, even if we do all the right things. Geopolitical uncertainty is like tectonic plate movement - when one plate shifts, it unsettles all the others, causing earthquakes that are hard to predict, but inevitable. The energy has to go somewhere. What Putin has set in motion already has many implications globally. I'm pretty convinced that dictators everywhere consider this to be the perfect time to settle old grievances, expand borders or whatever else might feed their unrestrained egos. They are all ready to create their earthquakes, and it can take a very long time for the plates to find a place to settle. We must have patience and keep monitoring the vibrations in the ground. ## Conclusion In conclusion, even if my emotional, historic and ideological arguments for arming Ukraine are unimportant to you, I hope you have understood how they form the basis for a logical, rational, and even profitable response to Putin’s aggression. I hope that I have managed to illustrate the certainty that Putin’s Russia, and even Russia after Putin, will never stop their centuries of imperialism until they are stopped by force. I hope that I have presented a path to the future on which the vital transatlantic partnership can be shored up and defended even without US enthusiasm. You here in Canada will be a key part of that. You will face positive risks, and if you take those opportunities you will be reducing negative risks here, across the Atlantic, and across the Pacific too. I was pleased to learn, just before getting here, that Canada might join ReArm Europe. That, surely, would be a step in the right direction. We cannot avoid a battle that has already started. The enemy army is already marching towards us. We didn’t avoid escalation since 2008, or 2014, or 2022, we simply encouraged Putin to escalate further. Our appeasement and all the carrots we dangled didn’t work as advertised. And all the time we kept telling ourselves we don’t have a stick, or we can’t afford a stick, or sticks take too long to manufacture, or stick operators take too long to train, or sticks need the wrong kind of fuel, or sticks shouldn’t be allowed to land on Russian territory, or sticks will be stolen before they reach the front, or any one of a million other reasons our leaders gave in order to justify dangling more hopeless carrots. But I think people in this room know different. I think we have all heard that Russia’s economy is the size of Spain’s, which is nowhere near the size of NATO’s, even without the US. Russia is very beatable. Most importantly we have the Ukrainians. Fierce, determined, and on our side. We also have the industrial base, the technological edge and the military ingenuity to prepare our own defence, and upgrade it to deterrence. We often say we have the capability to win — and that’s true. But it means nothing if we don’t try. It means nothing if we don’t believe in ourselves, don’t stick together and don’t mobilize our shared economic power in solidarity. That is what I preach from the political side, that is what I would like you to encourage from the business side. Let’s work together to wake Europe up and make it ready. We could call it a pincer movement, or perhaps, more amusingly, a special financial operation. --- ****Have you said thank you once?** If you appreciated this article and you would like to support my work, join Friends of Democracy today! [Sign up for a free trial ](#/portal/signup) ### The security guarantees Europe needs are being made in Ukraine URL: https://landsbergis.com/the-security-guarantees-europe-needs-are-being-made-in-ukraine/ Last updated: 2025-06-02T11:25:40.000Z The obliteration of Russian strategic bombers left us stunned — and rightly so. The sheer audacity of the operation, its meticulous preparation, and the demonstration of Ukrainian ingenuity are forcing many to rethink what Ukraine is truly capable of achieving. Get email notifications every time Gabrielius releases another article [Subscribe ](#/portal/signup) ## Here are five key lessons: ### 1\. The battlefield is now sustained mostly by Ukraine’s own innovations. I’ve said this before: Ukraine’s ability to hold the line increasingly depends on domestically produced capabilities. Artillery and armor still have their place, but drone warfare has completely redefined their use. Neither side can move heavy equipment close to the front without immediately becoming a target. Hundreds, even thousands, of drone strikes a day are what keep the contact line more or less intact. While the world talks, hosts meetings, and forms yet another “coalition of the willing” that mostly leads nowhere — Ukrainians innovate and fight. Without their ingenuity buying us time, we wouldn’t be able to host all those meetings. ### 2\. Ukraine’s innovation scene resembles the early days of Silicon Valley. All over the country, thousands of inventors are building war machines — big and small. Those who manage to create scalable tools for killing Russian invaders are merging into ever-more capable groups. A Ukrainian friend told me: if someone asked whether Ukraine was building a nuclear weapon, he wouldn’t be able to give a clear answer — because, somewhere in a garage, an engineer might just be watching YouTube and assembling something close to that. Ukraine is innovating its way to survival. With proper support, it could innovate its way to deterrence. ### 3\. This operation shows Ukraine is increasingly capable of acting independently of the West. Its scale and ingenuity — carried out without visible Western intelligence or logistical support — suggests Ukraine is now less reliant on outside help. That also means Western leverage, both real and imagined, is eroding. Ukraine is preparing to fight on its own terms. If you ever wondered what strategic autonomy looks like — this might be it. Ukraine’s way of war is shaped by necessity: no one’s closing the skies, no one’s delivering ammunition at scale. So, Ukraine strikes where it can make Russia feel vulnerable. Just as it made the Black Sea unsafe (recall that one of Russia’s first requests to Trump was to broker a maritime ceasefire), now it’s aiming to make the skies above Russian bases feel just as insecure. That could start shifting Putin’s calculations. ### 4\. This is not just a tactical win — it’s a strategic threat. When Stalin bled troops in Finland, he had to reckon with the limits of brute force: sacrificing soldiers in one small theater weakens your position elsewhere. Russia today may be vast, but every resource spent in Ukraine weakens another front. Losing troops is one thing. Losing strategic aviation — especially for a nuclear power — is another. If this wasn’t a one-off, but part of a deliberate, multi-layered campaign to degrade Russia’s strategic capacity, then serious alarm bells are now ringing in Moscow. At least among those generals who haven’t yet been fired, given tea or shown a balcony. ### 5\. Let’s stop pretending this is still about NATO expansion. That debate is over. The reality has changed. The real question now is: what kind of security architecture will Ukraine create — and who will be allowed to join? If Ukraine succeeds stopping Russia, it will have done the work of the entire alliance. Personally, I’d rather deter Russia alongside the Ukrainians — ideally within NATO, but if some member states insist on living in denial, then in any other configuration that works. Imagine Moscow planning an attack on a Baltic state, knowing it wouldn’t just face Lithuanians, Latvians, Estonians, Poles, or Germans — but also Ukrainians, with all their drone power. That’s a war even Putin might think twice about starting. ****Have you said thank you once?** If you appreciated this article and you would like to support my work, join Friends of Democracy today! [Sign up for a free trial ](#/portal/signup) 💡 **For booking Gabrielius Landsbergis please contact his agent at Chartwell Speakers* ***john@chartwellspeakers.com** ### ESCALATION E07 - Mariia Nazarova - Combat Medic in the Ukrainian Army URL: https://landsbergis.com/escalation-e07-mariia-nazarova-combat-medic-in-the-ukrainian-army/ Last updated: 2025-06-05T17:41:36.000Z Mariia Nazarova is a combat medic in the Ukrainian Army, witnessing events close-up since 2014\. She describes the innovations that have transformed the work of medics on the front line and how Ukrainians have developed their training to increase survival rates in a war fought in new ways with new weapons. An inspirational conversation with an inspirational soldier. We wish Mariia and her new baby much love and luck for the future. ## Subscribe to ESCALATION on: [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/@glandsbergis?ref=landsbergis.ghost.io), [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/2wCWkxnpQGwj4qE41tk7U2?ref=landsbergis.ghost.io) and [Apple](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/escalation-with-gabrielius-landsbergis/id1791398669?ref=landsbergis.ghost.io) ****Have you said thank you once?** If you appreciated this episode and you would like to support my work, join Friends of Democracy today! [Sign up for a free trial ](#/portal/signup) 💡 **For booking Gabrielius Landsbergis please contact his agent at Chartwell Speakers john@chartwellspeakers.com* ### The Future of the Council of the Baltic Sea States URL: https://landsbergis.com/the-future-of-the-council-of-the-baltic-sea-states/ Last updated: 2025-11-25T22:47:11.000Z I recently had the honour of being tasked with preparing a report on the future of the CBSS, co-authored with President Toomas Hendrik Ilves. Our report was handed to the ministers of member states last week for their consideration. The CBSS was originally founded after the Cold War to help newly independent countries like Lithuania and Poland integrate into the EU, and to bring Russia closer to the standards of Western-style multilateral diplomacy. Thirty-three years later, most member states are in the EU, all are in NATO, and Russia is out. And one small detail—even if you leave Germany out of the calculations, the CBSS now unites one of the most prosperous regions in the world. ### So what should this organization do today? ### That was the question we were asked to answer. But we didn’t approach the task as an effort to restructure an outdated format. Instead, we asked a basic question: what kind of organization would we create if we were starting from scratch today? Most of the issues discussed within the CBSS back in 1992 have since moved to the EU. Today, the main item on every country’s agenda is security—specifically, the threat from Russia. If you were to draw a hybrid threat intensity map, the Baltic region would be entirely red. And unfortunately, neither NATO nor the EU has been able to respond effectively to these types of threats. In fact, the prevailing assumption is that countries should handle hybrid attacks on their own. But the ability to respond to such threats varies significantly between, say, Poland or Germany and a country like Estonia. That’s why our proposal is to treat hybrid threats that fall below NATO’s Article 4 or 5 thresholds within a regional format. If such a grouping cannot manage them, the issue should then be escalated to NATO or the EU. Our working title for this revamped CBSS is: Regional (Hybrid) Security Organization. Additionally, the entire Western alliance is in flux. We know Europe can no longer take for granted that the US will remain its primary security guarantor. What this means in concrete terms is still unclear—will troops withdraw, will NATO’s role change? Everything is on the table. But if the transatlantic system fractures further, the region most affected by Russian aggression must be prepared to work even more closely together, and the CBSS could be the platform for exactly that. Read the full report here: [https://icds.ee/wp-content/uploads/dlm\_uploads/2025/05/Report\_The\_Future\_of\_the\_Council\_of\_the\_Baltic\_Sea\_States\_Ilves\_Landsbergis\_May\_2025.pdf](https://icds.ee/wp-content/uploads/dlm%5Fuploads/2025/05/Report%5FThe%5FFuture%5Fof%5Fthe%5FCouncil%5Fof%5Fthe%5FBaltic%5FSea%5FStates%5FIlves%5FLandsbergis%5FMay%5F2025.pdf?ref=landsbergis.com) ****Have you said thank you once?** If you appreciated this article and you would like to support my work, join Friends of Democracy today! [Sign up for a free trial ](#/portal/signup) ### The Coalition of the Willing to do What? URL: https://landsbergis.com/the-coalition-of-the-willing-to-do-what/ Last updated: 2025-11-25T22:47:56.000Z Eleven weeks ago a “coalition of the willing” gathered together to discuss what they were willing to do. Highlights of their progress so far: Macron had to remind his colleagues that sovereign countries do not need Putin’s permission to deploy troops in Ukraine. Poland opposed deploying troops anyway. Merz said Taurus was on the table, then took it off. A decision was made to issue a ceasefire ultimatum, but then a decision was made not to enforce it. This was maybe due to nobody having a plan to enforce it, which raises questions about the wisdom of issuing it. ## Sign up for my free newsletter We fight for freedom together! Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Trump, perhaps worried that Europeans would steal his Nobel Peace Prize, torpedoed their plan and backed a different idea, which didn’t work, so he denied backing it. His position is now “nothing's going to happen until Putin and I get together”. This sounds a bit too much like 1938, you might say. Merz says frozen assets will be used “if” that’s legal. But we have known it’s legal for a very long time. Why couldn’t he just say the assets will be used, without the “if”? Putin was threatened with “crippling” sanctions, which later became a threat to initiate preparations of crippling sanctions, which subsequently turned into an ordinary round of sanctions that are just as crippling as being poked with soft cushions in a Monty Python sketch. While I obviously wish them all the success in the world, I am wondering why is it so hard to find evidence that the coalition of the willing is actually willing to do anything meaningful, let alone gamechanging. For example, we have heard a lot about the thousand ships of Russia’s so-called shadow fleet. And after months of negotiations, Europe has managed to agree on sanctioning fewer than 200\. Add that to the 100 previously sanctioned and we are fast approaching 300! Out of a thousand. That means 700 ships are still sailing from St. Petersburg to wherever—carrying Russian oil and bringing back yuan, rupees, or whatever currency their buyers use. And that means Russian coffers are still being filled with money. > So… next time we tell Putin to “prepare to be crippled,” it’s entirely possible that he will cripple himself with laughter. Putin understands how EU rules (don’t) work, and guys—he’s not exactly trembling. We can’t even make serious progress on Ukraine’s EU accession. In fact, we are going backwards. The EU will reintroduce pre-war tariffs on Ukraine starting June 6\. This decision will cost Ukrainians more than €3 billion. At the same time, high-ranking officials travel to Ukraine to announce a €1 billion support package. This makes less than no sense. In summary: Although we heard a lot of words and read a lot of announcements since JD Vance attacked Europe in Munich, there are no troops, almost no weapons, no frozen assets, no air defence, no crippling sanctions, no accession, new tariffs, and no Taurus. So what is actually going on? I am concerned that the answer is “nothing”. Or maybe it’s even worse than that. Maybe that is the plan. Maybe nobody is “willing” to do anything more than talk about being willing. We can at least say that everything that has happened since the Munich Security Conference looks exactly like the procrastination one would expect from a Europe that has given up on the idea of defending Ukraine and agreed to reallocate resources to the production of press releases that sound like progress without actually committing to any progress. Meanwhile, when you look at the statistics of actual support delivered, per capita and even in absolute numbers, the Nordic-Baltic region stands out. Some countries are willing to actually get on with it. They might not always attract the most headlines, but they are making the decisions that need to be made. For those struggling to find a way to live up to their promises to stand with Ukraine, I have a question: Have you tried actually standing with Ukraine? ****Have you said thank you once?** If you appreciated this article and you would like to support my work, join Friends of Democracy today! [Sign up for a free trial ](#/portal/signup) ### JD Vance's rethink reveals two US vulnerabilities in Europe URL: https://landsbergis.com/jd-vances-rethink-reveals-two-us-vulnerabilities-in-europe/ Last updated: 2025-05-07T18:26:49.000Z I had ringside seats for US Vice President JD Vance’s speech this morning in Washington. Like most people in the room I was prepared to be hit with another lecture, to see the fractures in the transatlantic relationship deepen before my eyes. But we were surprised, positively. The tone has altered. JD Vance now considers Europe and the US to be important partners. So what exactly changed, and why? ## Sign up for my free newsletter We fight for freedom together! Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. My best bet is that what has happened during recent months could be described as US foreign policy disruption overreach. Fundamentally, the notion that America, in the spirit of Silicon valley disruptors, can offer a new and universally accepted worldview is based on the indispensability of the United States to other nations. And what just happened was a reckoning that the US is still a tremendously important western ally, but… the worldview that it wants its allies to accept is simply not acceptable to most of them. JD Vance offered a couple of points that to my mind show the main vulnerabilities of the US. **1—EU procurement of US weapons.** The US wants a piece of the trillions of euros that will be spent on defence. And the administration is upset that Europe seems to be choosing to replace American products by making its own kit instead of staying weak and vulnerable by shopping around for subtier alternatives. All the messaging throughout recent months led Europe to doubt that the US is a reliable partner when it comes to dealing with the greatest security threat—Russia. And if Europe doubts that partnership—Europe is not going to spend money on US equipment, at least not in the amounts it planned to when there was less doubt. You cannot have cake and eat it. Either the US is ready to defend Europe against Russia ***together*** with Europe (and that includes Ukraine), or Europe slowly, ineffectively but inevitably will start building itself up, and with that will gain autonomy and leverage. **2—EU regulation.** JD Vance mentioned that the way Brussels treats US tech companies is unfair. My gut feeling is that this sentiment is at the heart of the attack on Brussels by the US administration. You can laugh, despise or criticise Brussels, but it wields enormous regulatory power in an extremely populous and rich market. And if you want to reach that market, your road leads through Brussels. And what's even more horrifying from the US administration’s perspective—most Europeans actually appreciate this regulation. Many have a sense it makes their life safer and in that way better. So the attacks on Brussels because of its supposedly undemocratic nature are simply another attack on any limitation of Washington’s power. You can broligarch your way to the highest echelons of US power, but apparently that doesn’t help you change things in Europe. I admit, this might be wishful thinking—but I get the sense that Trump burning all those burning bridges did not scare or paralyze Europe into submission. And the price that American people are paying for the disruption might also be larger than initially expected. If all this is true—the lesson is clear. Hold your ground, stay firm, keep the door open, remind everybody of common values and common interests and continue doing the right thing. And who knows, people can come around, so maybe countries can as well. So I left the room hoping that my gut feeling will turn out to be true. At least, for once, my gut feeling was not gloom. But still, the first victim of Trump’s disruption was trust. It is a very expensive commodity that was built up through decades of hard work and it will be very tough to regain. Trust will have to be at the core of all the conversations between Brussels and DC—be it about trade, regulation or security. If there had been a chance to address the Vice President, I would have told him frankly, after making sure to thank America twice: Russia is the aggressor. Ukraine is the victim. We support the victim. There are red lines that Europe cannot cross, and will not cross. > If you would like to support my work and get access to premium content, join Friends of Democracy and we'll fight for freedom together! [Start your free trial here](#/portal/signup) ### ESCALATION E06 - Ben Hodges - Former Commander of US Army Europe URL: https://landsbergis.com/escalation-e06-ben-hodges-former-commander-of-us-army-europe/ Last updated: 2025-05-04T07:59:12.000Z We are very proud to present the latest episode of the ESCALATION podcast, this time an extra deep discussion with one of the most knowledgeable and outspoken former US Generals when it comes to strategic military issues in Europe. Ben Hodges served all over the world during in his long career in the US Army, including Germany, South Korea, Iraq and Afghanistan. He rose to command United States Army Europe from November 2014 to 2018, during the beginning of Russia's invasion and occupation of Ukraine. In this discussion we focus on today's huge geopolitical shifts from a military perspective, examining our real capability for scaling up production, arming Ukraine and upholding international law with our troops and ammo. *The podcast is always free, so please do share it with friends and help us to bust some of the myths that are holding Europe back.* ## Subscribe to ESCALATION on: [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/@glandsbergis?ref=landsbergis.ghost.io), [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/2wCWkxnpQGwj4qE41tk7U2?ref=landsbergis.ghost.io) and [Apple](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/escalation-with-gabrielius-landsbergis/id1791398669?ref=landsbergis.ghost.io) --- ### Enjoying the podcasts? Support our work by becoming a Friend of Democracy! [Start your free trial here](escalation-e06-ben-hodges-former-commander-of-us-army-europe/#/portal/signup) ### Putin can see he is still on the path to victory URL: https://landsbergis.com/putin-can-see-he-is-still-on-the-path-to-victory/ Last updated: 2025-05-05T09:10:52.000Z We often debate what the EU should be doing, what Ukraine should be expecting, and what to anticipate from the US. But let’s consider how Putin likely perceives the current situation—and how he intends to shape the geopolitical landscape. ## **Ukraine:** Putin will continue ramping up pressure to force Ukraine toward an unfavorable peace deal. Brutal attacks on civilian infrastructure are not triggering a new wave of Western deliveries, so we can expect more attacks. The front line remains relatively static, and shifting it would require more troops than Putin is currently willing to commit. Mobilization remains politically risky. In his view, terrorizing civilians is a way to pressure the Ukrainian government into accepting whatever deal a Trump-led White House might offer. ## **Europe:** Putin sees Europe as slow, fragmented, and reactive. No real troop deployments, no credible security guarantees, no significant increase in military aid. Europe chose not to surprise Putin—and that’s exactly what he was counting on. He would welcome deepening internal divisions. Southern European countries, less invested in Ukraine, may prioritize their relationship with the US over supporting Kyiv. Meanwhile, Northern European countries can be distracted with domestic issues. Denmark’s renewed debate over Greenland is a perfect example—especially since Russia didn’t even have to instigate it. Putin also counts on electoral shifts. Governments that reflect war fatigue may come to power. But not all bets are paying off: Germany’s recent election results suggest a significant portion of its electorate still recognizes the Russian threat. Where Putin excels is in gray-zone warfare: cyberattacks, sabotage, and disinformation. His aim is to breed chaos. Chaos creates uncertainty, distracts attention, and forces governments to look inward. The previous US administration largely ignored this threat. Now it’s even clearer that many countries will be left to deal with Russian provocations alone. That weakens collective resolve and undermines support for Ukraine. If NATO or the EU fails to deliver meaningful support, fractures in the alliance will widen. Citizens will increasingly see their countries as isolated in the face of Russian aggression. And when a crisis comes, the instinct isn’t solidarity—it’s self-preservation. The more Ukraine’s allies turn inward, the better for Putin. Putin is betting that EU sanctions will collapse—possibly as early as June. One Hungarian veto could kill them. Budapest may not go so far as to block everything, but Putin knows it’s getting harder to maintain unity. The last rollover was only approved after several Russian oligarchs were removed from the list, essentially a hostage release demanded by Orbán. He’s also watching the EU enlargement debate closely. Hungary’s willingness to allow Moldova to move forward while stalling Ukraine plays directly into Putin’s hands. It insults Kyiv, drives a wedge between Ukraine and Moldova, and weakens the EU’s strategic coherence. ## **United States:** Putin’s objective is to keep the US superficially engaged—without conceding anything. Empty talk of ceasefires, vague cooperation on Iran, or the occasional “Trump Tower Moscow” tease keep Washington dangling. Trump, personally invested, has little room to maneuver. If he pressures Russia, peace talks collapse and he looks weak. So he either stalls or blames Ukraine—both outcomes that suit Moscow. ## **Internal decisions:** Should a ceasefire emerge, Putin will face a decision on what to do with his mobilized troops. Demobilization is unlikely; it would signal weakness and unravel the war narrative that solidified his domestic control. More likely, he’ll continue rotating new conscripts and building reserves. The war rhetoric will persist—still focused on Ukraine, but increasingly pointing toward new potential targets. Russia’s economy is locked in a wartime posture. It’s easier to keep producing tanks to threaten neighbors than to start building cars no one wants. Another key goal for Putin is to regain dominance in the Black Sea. Ukraine’s ability to restrict Russian naval movement has been a major strategic loss. Reversing that would require significant pressure on Ukraine—but without strong US involvement, it remains difficult. Still, this is a front where Putin will be actively seeking a breakthrough. ## **Conclusion** The overall situation is increasingly favorable to Putin. Events and time are on his side. Barring major surprises, he is on track to shape the European security environment on his own terms. Not a pretty picture—for us Europeans. ### Trump's Dead Cat Deal URL: https://landsbergis.com/trumps-dead-cat-deal/ Last updated: 2025-04-25T08:00:16.000Z Nobody should be surprised if the US dumps a dead cat deal at Europe’s door. Trump might simply tell Europe to “take it or leave it”. Sadly, it is not currently apparent that Europe is ready to be put in this dilemma. But ready or not, leave it we must. Europe would face a historic choice—either defend international law by continuing to support the victim whatever it takes, or attempt to retain US support in the rest of Europe by abandoning part of, or all of, Ukraine. This choice would be far more difficult than many expect. Europe does not feel ready and we do not yet believe we have what it takes to defend either Ukraine or ourselves. Meanwhile, Putin is continuing to threaten WWIII if Europe stands by Ukraine with more than words. These threats, although empty, continue to hypnotise and paralyse. There will be those who argue, cynically, that Ukraine is not our fight. They’ve said it before, and now they will have a new argument: we cannot risk losing US protection over some kind of Eastern European “territorial dispute”. Others may suggest Europe pretends to take the deal to buy some time. But that is a false hope. Plenty of time was already given to us—Ukraine heroically and tragically bought us three years to prepare. Unfortunately we didn’t use it. It is likely that the extra time would be used to kick the can further down the road. But what’s more—taking the deal, even as a delaying tactic, would mean selling out Ukraine. Selling out would be the perfect example of Churchill’s warning about “feeding the crocodile”. No matter how many of your friends you feed to your enemy, he will come for you eventually. It’s only a matter of time. Selling out would merely initiate the slow suicide of Europe. We must do whatever we can, now, because there will be no magical Plan B that leaves our freedoms intact without sacrifice. Defence requires defence. Whatever tools we have, we must use them. Whatever decisions we should have made earlier, we must make them now. The enemy will not wait patiently until we figure this out. Right now, today, we face a decision that will define the future of Europe. Either we grit our teeth and fight for the cities, skies, trenches and beaches of Ukraine, or we wave the white flag of shameful surrender, throw our friends to the crocodile and cower behind a bush until our own countries appear on the menu. ### ESCALATION E05 - Jakub Janda - Czech expert on the Indo-Pacific region URL: https://landsbergis.com/escalation-e05-jakub-janda-czech-expert-on-the-indo-pacific-region/ Last updated: 2025-06-05T17:41:48.000Z Today we're joined by a particularly timely and insightful guest, Jakub Janda. Jakub is a Czech political scientist and the Executive Director of the European Value Center for Security Policy. Based in Prague and now also active in Taipei, Jakub has been at the forefront of efforts to counter hybrid threats from authoritarian regimes, with a sharp focus on Russian and Chinese influence operations in Europe and beyond. ### Enjoying the podcasts? Support our work by becoming a Friend of Democracy! [Start your free trial here](escalation-e05-jakub-janda-czech-expert-on-the-indo-pacific-region/#/portal/signup) ## Trailer 0:00 /0:13 1× ## Full Episode ## Subscribe to ESCALATION on: [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/@glandsbergis?ref=landsbergis.ghost.io), [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/2wCWkxnpQGwj4qE41tk7U2?ref=landsbergis.ghost.io) and [Apple](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/escalation-with-gabrielius-landsbergis/id1791398669?ref=landsbergis.ghost.io) ### So who’s guaranteeing Europe’s security now? URL: https://landsbergis.com/so-whos-guaranteeing-europes-security-now/ Last updated: 2025-04-14T08:53:23.000Z It often goes unnoticed that since Russia launched the full-scale invasion, Ukraine has rebuilt and expanded its defense industry, mobilized and trained a significant portion of its population, become a world-leader in drone innovations and held back the “unstoppable” Russian army with, let’s be honest, only a small amount of support from outside. Although the narrative persists that poor little Ukraine must beg for security guarantees to survive, as time goes by it looks more and more like they are the ones ensuring Europe’s survival, even if we aren’t ensuring theirs. This shift in the balance of power is still underappreciated and not fully understood. So let’s ask ourselves: Do the countries of NATO need Ukraine more than Ukraine needs NATO? > *Full access available exclusively to subscribers. If you would like to read the whole article* [*sign in to your account*](https://landsbergis.com/#/portal/signin?ref=preview) *or* [*subscribe here*](https://landsbergis.com/#/portal/signup?ref=preview)*.* _This post is for subscribers only._ ### The So-Called Coalition of the Willing URL: https://landsbergis.com/the-so-called-coalition-of-the-willing/ Last updated: 2025-04-11T13:28:09.000Z Imagine you are a Ukrainian defender on the front line and you hear about the outcome of the latest meeting of the “coalition of the willing”. For three years, you’ve been holding off Russian drones and meat waves, fearing for the safety of your loved ones back home, sheltering from missile strikes at night. And then you read the coalition’s announcement: “Planning will continue to move forward in the coming weeks.” Planning? ## Sign up for my free newsletter We fight for freedom together! Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. It’s been three years. To where has “planning” brought us? To a point where only 6 out of 30 countries are even considering sending troops to Ukraine. And only France has clearly stated willingness to go ahead without first requesting Russia’s blessing. You, the Ukrainian defender, sitting in that trench near Pokrovsk, would probably want to ask Europe to stop pretending, to stop imitating progress when there is none. You would probably be thinking in very colourful language, because at this point, it’s getting extremely frustrating. Europe is clearly not ready to fight alongside Ukrainians. Not ready to deter future Russian attacks. Not ready to offer real security guarantees. Announcements of “plans” should not fool anybody any more. So far, Europe is putting the larger part of its effort into wasting time. If Europe was truly ready and willing, the decision to help Ukraine would already have been made. But it hasn’t. And maybe that’s the truth we need to face: we are not ready to be willing, let alone doing. This coalition’s discussions about sending troops and equipment continue to go nowhere, so troops and equipment will continue to go nowhere. But if we are not ready to send troops or equipment, the question arises: What are we ready for? If we can’t fight together with our allies shoulder to shoulder, if we can’t offer credible guarantees of security to those defending our continent, can we at least throw money at the problem? Please? Basic honesty should compel us to abandon the charade of talking about plans which only one out of thirty “coalition” members are ready and “willing” to implement. Instead, let’s build on what we do have—money. It’s logistically quite easy to transfer money to Ukraine. Let’s be willing to at least invest euros, if not blood. We can easily spare a little of our luxury for braver people in the trenches who are actually willing to fight. With enough funding, maybe they can keep defending all our lives until we finally come up with a plan of action, not just a plan of planning. Maybe we can become a coalition of the fighting, perhaps “in the coming weeks”. But while we prevaricate and show no evidence that we have moved from planning to implementation, we are losing the last remnants of our credibility in the hearts of the men and women fighting in the dirt and chaos of Pokrovsk, Kursk, and countless other hotspots on our continent’s 1,400 mile border with hell. ### Only Friends E09 – Security Guarantees URL: https://landsbergis.com/only-friends-e09-security-guarantees/ Last updated: 2025-04-09T11:49:39.000Z Welcome again to Only Friends, my regular video messages exclusively for Friends of Democracy, my paid subscribers. Thank you for your support! If you know someone who would like to become a Friend, tell them about the [free trial](https://landsbergis.com/only-friends-e09/#/portal/signup?ref=onlyfriends09). **This week I'm talking about security guarantees more than about the tariffs which we already heard so much about.** > *This analysis is available exclusively to paid members of Friends of Democracy. If you would like watch the video message* [*sign in to your Friends account*](https://landsbergis.com/#/portal/signin?ref=preview) *or* [*sign up for a free trial*](https://landsbergis.com/#/portal/signup?ref=preview)*.* 0:00 /4:54 1× ### ICYMI In the latest episode of the [ESCALATION Podcast](https://www.youtube.com/@glandsbergis?ref=landsbergis.ghost.io) I talk to Jonas Ohman, co-founder of Blue-Yellow, an NGO providing a huge amount of military aid to Ukraine. ### Subscribe to ESCALATION on: [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/@glandsbergis?ref=landsbergis.ghost.io), [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/2wCWkxnpQGwj4qE41tk7U2?ref=landsbergis.ghost.io) and [Apple](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/escalation-with-gabrielius-landsbergis/id1791398669?ref=landsbergis.ghost.io) ### Six ways to light the much-discussed European beacon of freedom URL: https://landsbergis.com/six-ways-to-light-the-much-discussed-european-beacon-of-freedom/ Last updated: 2025-04-03T10:05:42.000Z There has never been a better time for Europe to shine. As EU High Representative Kaja Kallas put it: the world needs a beacon of freedom—and the EU should become one. So here I will offer six ways to actually light the beacon. ## Sign up for my free newsletter We fight for freedom together! Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Some Europeans still hope the US will turn back to us, thinking that Washington’s rhetoric is just noise, perhaps Trump and his team genuinely want to pressure allies into doing more, and once Europe proves itself, things will “go back to normal.” But such wishful thinking ignores the direction of US policy over the past decade. The unravelling began with Obama’s pivot to Asia, was reaffirmed by Trump, and even under Biden—who presented himself as the last transatlanticist—the approach to Europe was more about honouring tradition than investing in the future. No matter how much Europe may wish otherwise, the transatlantic relationship will never return to what was a “golden age” of unity. It’s possible that someday in the future the US will acknowledge the benefits of true partnership, so we must never close the door, but time is too precious to waste waiting. It feels, despite our leaders understanding the stakes, like we are sleeping through our moment of destined greatness. But, my fellow Europeans, it wouldn’t be so hard to wake up and step into the role history has given us. Here’s how: ## **First: Get tough on internal disruptors.** Europe cannot act decisively if Hungary continues to undermine consensus. Hungarian interests no longer align with the vast majority of member states’, yet the entire continent is being held hostage. Left unchecked, the problem will grow. More elections will bring more disruptors, who may learn that opposing the collective European interest pays dividends. It’s time to invoke Article 7 against Hungary, suspend their veto and stop rewarding blackmail. If we put serious pressure on Hungary now, any other potential disruptors will see that attempts to dismantle and weaken Europe don’t pay, and accordingly they will reconsider their plans and modify their rhetoric. On the other hand, if we wait, Hungary might build enough momentum to cement alliances within the Union to block any major decision. Right now we are just sitting on our hands and encouraging copycats. ## **Second: Help Ukraine win.** Trump does not look like he is interested in giving Ukraine leverage in future negotiations. So far, pressure has been directed at Ukraine, not Russia—effectively nudging Kyiv towards capitulation. Furthermore, economic pressure alone won’t shift Moscow’s calculus. The only real leverage Ukraine—and the West—could have would be to credibly threaten Russia with defeat on the battlefield. That’s within our power. That’s all that would worry Putin. He is undoubtedly very happy that we have refrained from doing that for so long. Ukrainians are holding the line with minimal support, relying on their own production. If we really do lack the capacity to supply them directly from our stocks, let’s help them manufacture what they need. This process has already started and it’s working—we just need more of it, and there is no easier way. We could accept the fact that a real diplomatic solution will only come after battlefield success. Europe must not forget about its own power. Ukraine is under pressure to accept an impossible-to-accept minerals deal, but as a candidate country any such agreement could ultimately fall under EU treaty obligations. President Zelensky is right to request the European Commission’s legal opinion. Now is the moment to use Europe’s legal and institutional power in support of a candidate country and partner. Remember, if we don’t use our power, we’ll lose it. ## **Third: Pick up the slack left by the US** One immediate step could be to acquire Radio Free Europe. Even the name implies a pan-European obligation—no single country can take it on alone. We must demonstrate that we care about freedom of speech and will not cede the space vacated by the US to Russia or China. This should be followed by a full review of European assistance programmes. The scars left by the withdrawal of USAID are painfully visible in places like Georgia. Those places lost both hard and soft support, leaving them vulnerable to slow, inexorable, de facto annexation by Moscow. Europe cannot afford to allow that to happen to our friends and fellow democracies. Without European help, already battered civil societies will fracture. Meanwhile, Europe is spending billions without a clear strategic objective. With the US retreating, the goal is now obvious: rethink, regroup, and use our soft power to support freedom where it is now most threatened. ## **Fourth: Start serious preparations for enlargement.** The enlargement process is looking like it has stalled. When the Baltics were joining, the Commission worked just as hard as the candidate countries. Everyone was busy. The deadline—2004—was set. Let’s do the same now: set a date for eastern enlargement for 2030 and start serious preparations. As it was in 2004, enlargement is now a geopolitical necessity. Welcoming Ukraine and Moldova would strengthen deterrence and provide stability. We may not get another chance like this. Welcoming Georgia would also be beneficial to our continent and our Union, if we can find the will to reverse their slide into autocracy, a slide that happened on our watch. ## **Fifth: Don’t leave Denmark to face US coercion alone.** Washington appears determined to pursue its ambitions in Greenland, regardless of the damage to what remains of the transatlantic relationship. Our arguments about trust, stability, and marginal gain aren’t getting through. Denmark has done a remarkable job resisting bizarre demands, but it might not be enough. Greenland left the EU in 1985\. Perhaps now is the time to offer Greenlanders a path back. With Greenland in the EU, it would be politically more difficult for Trump to push an ultimatum. Even if they vote to break from Denmark, they could remain in the EU. We could provide investment and long-term support. And who knows—this might even encourage Iceland or Norway to reconsider their position on joining the EU. ## **Sixth: Become a true foreign and defence policy union.** Europe must accept that geopolitical strength requires more federalization and joint action. Borrowing for defence is a good start, but if we’re serious about protecting the Eastern Flank—an additional 1.5% of spending won’t be enough, especially since many frontline countries are small. The EU should leverage its collective power to procure equipment and pre-position it in those member states most likely to face Russian aggression, because that is the only way to make the deterrence credible. Planning for that must start, and finish, as soon as possible. I disagreed with the Prime Minister of Spain’s recent comments about Spain’s defence responsibilities effectively ending at the Pyrenees, and I would remind all member states that we are a Union because unity makes us stronger. Challenges to our continent will come from many angles, and we all agreed to stand together against all of them, not to pick and choose which problems are close enough to home. If a pandemic infects Italy, we all help Italy. Comparing Russian imperialism to a disease is not much of a stretch. If Putin is allowed to plunder the huge resources of Eastern Europe, the Pyrenees won’t stop a Russian invasion of Spain any more than the Alps stopped the spread of COVID-19. We should be in a very good mood right now, not in a panic. Europe is poised to reap huge rewards if the stepping up moves from speeches to actual steps. Securing the Eastern Flank is not a burden, it’s an opportunity, and we can all share in the benefits if we take the opportunity together. Or if we choose to miss this historic moment, no EU member will be able to escape the deadly consequences of that choice. Nobody will be “dry after jumping in a puddle”, as we say in Lithuania. > If you would like to support my work and get access to premium content, [join Friends of Democracy](#/portal/signup) and we'll fight for freedom together! [Start your free trial here](#/portal/signup) ### ESCALATION E04 - Jonas Ohman - Co-founder of Blue/Yellow URL: https://landsbergis.com/escalation-e04-jonas-ohman-co-founder-of-blue-yellow/ Last updated: 2025-06-05T17:42:01.000Z ESCALATION is back! --- Become a paid subscriber and support my work. I'll also send you an exclusive video message every week. Join the Friends of Democracy today! [Start your free trial here](#/portal/signup) --- Jonas Ohman is Co-founder of Blue/Yellow [www.blue-yellow.lt](https://blue-yellow.lt/en/?ref=landsbergis.com), Europe's biggest non-governmental supplier of military aid to Ukraine. Blue/Yellow has raised $100million since 2014, primarily in Lithuania, a country of only 3 million people. We talked to Jonas about his personal journey, the outstanding work of his NGO and the situation on the ground in Ukraine as he sees it. ## Subscribe to ESCALATION on: [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/@glandsbergis?ref=landsbergis.ghost.io), [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/2wCWkxnpQGwj4qE41tk7U2?ref=landsbergis.ghost.io) and [Apple](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/escalation-with-gabrielius-landsbergis/id1791398669?ref=landsbergis.ghost.io) ## ### [Join Friends of Democracy](https://landsbergis.com/escalation-e03-dmytro-kuleba-former-foreign-minister-of-ukraine/#/portal/signup) to support our work and get Only Friends messages from Gabrielius every week. [Start your free trial now!](https://landsbergis.com/escalation-e03-dmytro-kuleba-former-foreign-minister-of-ukraine/#/portal/signup) ### Only Friends E08 – The Black Sea URL: https://landsbergis.com/only-friends-e08/ Last updated: 2025-03-25T20:32:15.000Z ## Dear Friends of Democracy, Thank you once again for supporting my work. Here is this week's exclusive video message for paid members. ### Now Putin wants the Black Sea back > *This special analysis is available exclusively to paid members of Friends of Democracy. If you would like to read the whole article* [*sign in to your Friends account*](https://landsbergis.com/#/portal/signin?ref=preview) *or* [*sign up for a free trial*](https://landsbergis.com/#/portal/signup?ref=preview)*.* _This post is for subscribers on the Friends of Democracy tier only._ ### The Truman Doctrine is dead and the Trump Doctrine is here URL: https://landsbergis.com/the-truman-doctrine-is-dead-and-the-trump-doctrine-is-here/ Last updated: 2025-03-25T11:59:32.000Z There are many uncertainties at the moment, but we can be fairly sure that the United States is not genuinely interested in a fair deal for Ukraine, because the United States has done nothing to indicate that or to move towards it. On day one, Trump let the world know that his priority was speed, not justice. Putin is in no hurry, so the only way Trump could get a quick deal was to push Ukraine for concessions. Putin’s full list of demands was adopted by Trump’s team, who began to echo and legitimise the key points—new elections, no NATO, annexations recognised. ## Sign up for my free newsletter We fight for freedom together! Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Since then, what we’ve been watching is not a negotiation for peace in Ukraine, but Trump’s attempt to rearrange the European security architecture to Russia’s advantage. If successful, Ukraine would be the first victim of many. Witkoff, in his interview with Carlson, articulated what I believe is the current administration’s worldview—an endorsement of Putin’s claims in Ukraine and a legitimization of his genocidal agenda. This is a 180° handbrake turn away from the Truman Doctrine, America’s historic 1947 decision to protect national security by assisting democracies threatened by autocracies. So what is going on that would trigger such a huge change in policy? In this article I will set out three possible explanations. ## **The Strongman Theory** The first possibility is that Trump, who sees himself as a post-liberal strongman, believes the world should be ruled by strongmen, specifically himself, Putin, and Xi. In this post-liberal world order, power determines legitimacy. Those with power can exercise it until their interests collide with another ruler’s. Borders become lines of demarcation between “kingdoms.” Those without sufficient power are left with one option: submission. This worldview aligns closely with Putin’s and Xi’s while simultaneously helping explain Trump’s claims regarding Canada, Greenland, and Panama. Under this new order, the US sphere of influence would absorb these areas, while Ukraine—and likely parts of Europe—would be sucked into Putin’s. What we’re witnessing is a US withdrawal from “Putin’s” sphere. As the US leaves Europe, the continent could be reclassified as a grey zone: left to defend itself, or, if unable, to follow Ukraine into Russia’s zone of control. It remains to be seen to what extent US commitments to Indo-Pacific partners remain intact. But we must be reminded: NATO and Article 5 have long been the gold standard of security arrangements. If that fractures, it’s only fair to question US credibility in the Indo-Pacific as well. ## **The Reverse Kissinger** The second possible explanation is that Trump has been convinced to try a “reverse Kissinger” approach—that the US might woo Russia away from China. This would be a sizable challenge. The “no-limits” partnership between Russia and China means Beijing backs Moscow’s war in Ukraine, and in return, Russia would likely help China by creating trouble in Europe and Japan if China moves on Taiwan. The partnership has benefited both parties, and there’s no visible rift between them. To try to split these allies and complete the “reverse Kissinger”, the US would need to become Russia’s new strategic partner—replacing China, not merely joining the alliance. This would require huge geopolitical concessions. In short: a free hand for Russia in Europe, total US disengagement from the EU, and possibly even tacit support for Russia’s ambitions. This would amount to the creation of an anti-liberal alliance—abandoning a key US ally and strategic pillar. I’m not saying this will happen, but if Russia were to consider switching allegiances, it would likely demand such terms. And even then, there’s clearly no guarantee Russia would follow through. As I’ve argued before, this US-Russian realignment has far more in common with the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact than with Kissinger’s rapprochement vis à vis China. Molotov and Ribbentrop divided Eastern Europe into spheres of influence between two authoritarian powers. The pact collapsed violently when one party—Nazi Germany—decided to betray the other first. What followed was devastation. Such pacts are temporary conveniences based on mutual distrust and ambition, and they tend to fall apart violently. The same is clearly possible now—it is apparent that Russia would pocket everything offered by Trump and would still continue doing whatever it deemed most beneficial for its regime. What’s less clear is how China would respond to such a US effort. Beijing has invested heavily in its “no-limits” partnership with Moscow, which has brought it both strategic distraction in Europe and diplomatic cover in multilateral forums. If it began to doubt Russia’s loyalty, China would likely use all available leverage over its junior partner to ensure nothing unexpected unfolds. It could also see the moment as an opportunity to double down on its own ambitions regarding Taiwan and possibly other countries in the neighbourhood. In either case, the idea that Beijing would sit by idly while its most important wartime ally is courted away by Washington seems dangerously naive. There was another way to drive a wedge between Russia and China: coercion. If Russia were losing in Ukraine, it would be in a much worse position to help China in Taiwan. The US could then have applied leverage—serious support to Ukraine, additional sanctions, international isolation—to compel Russia to accept neutrality. Military support for Ukraine would have delivered stronger, more reliable results than attempting to bribe Russia into partnership. But what is happening is even worse; by choosing appeasement over deterrence, the US is alienating its most important partner—the EU. There is still time for the US to change tack, but it seems unlikely at this point. The “reverse Kissenger” would be unlikely to succeed, and anyway it’s not clear what the US would gain by handing Europe over to Russia. If the US is still expecting to confront China over Taiwan, there would be the risk of facing two adversaries—both Russia and China—while having few allies left, if any. Europe, and potentially Japan, would be too preoccupied with a strengthened Russia to contribute meaningfully to US efforts in the Indo-Pacific. ## **The No Plan Plan** There’s also a third scenario — that there is no grand plan at all. Perhaps US policy is being shaped ad hoc, based on Russian propaganda narratives, personal vendettas, and situational whims. This cannot be ruled out. As Trump himself said about his style, in “The Art of the Deal”: “I usually arrive at my office by nine, and I get on the phone. There’s rarely a day with fewer than fifty calls, and often it runs to over a hundred. In between, I have at least a dozen meetings. The majority occur on the spur of the moment, and few of them last longer than fifteen minutes.” ## **Good guys gonna lose?** All three scenarios ultimately serve China’s interests. On the “strongman” timeline, the US refrains from challenging Beijing’s ambitions in the Indo-Pacific. On the “reverse-Kissenger” timeline, China faces a distracted and isolated America. On the “no plan” timeline, the chaos is unlikely to be beneficial to the man with no plan. Either way, Beijing wins. For Europe, all timelines are disastrous—unless the continent rapidly rebuilds its military power. Europe’s much trumpeted five-to-ten-year defense buildup may come too late. Putin is unlikely to politely wait for Europe to get stronger before he pushes forward. Whichever thinking truly drives the actions of the current US administration, one thing is clear: the era of the Truman Doctrine is over. It is no longer the position of the US government that totalitarian regimes oppressing free peoples are a threat to international peace which therefore undermines American interests. The new Trump Doctrine appears to suggest the opposite—that the actions of free peoples resisting totalitarian regimes disrupt the “natural order” and thus run counter to US interests. 💡 To support my work and get access to premium content, [subscribe to Friends of Democracy for a free trial](#/portal/signup). ### Only Friends E07 – Europe not yet stepping up URL: https://landsbergis.com/only-friends-e07-europe-not-yet-stepping-up/ Last updated: 2025-03-17T17:42:04.000Z ## Dear Friends of Democracy, This week I haven't been discussing what has happened, I have been discussing what *hasn't* happened. And that is a lot. 💡 These video messages are available exclusively to paying members of Friends of Democracy, my squad of hardcore freedom fighters who support my work to the fullest. To enlist, simply subscribe to the [Friends of Democracy](#/portal/signup) plan. Thank you so much for joining! _This post is for subscribers on the Friends of Democracy tier only._ ### It’s time for the Baltics to be brave like Poland URL: https://landsbergis.com/its-time-for-the-baltics-to-be-brave-like-poland/ Last updated: 2025-03-14T11:15:30.000Z > *Full access available exclusively to subscribers. If you would like to read the whole article* [*sign in to your account*](https://landsbergis.com/#/portal/signin?ref=preview) *or* [*subscribe here*](https://landsbergis.com/#/portal/signup?ref=preview)*.* Poland's strategic transformation in security and defense, driven by shared historical lessons and contemporary realities, provides a convenient and comprehensive model for the Baltic states to adopt, should they choose to do so. I would go further and say they have no choice. At its core, Polish strategic thinking emphasizes the key principle that a nation must consistently prepare more intensely than its adversary to effectively deter aggression, never depending excessively on allies. Poland’s commitment to allocate 4% of its GDP to defense is driven by this core belief—that the survival of the nation in any potential conflicts is dependent on robust preparation. In the evolving geopolitical context shaped by U.S. disengagement, Poland’s proactive stance—exploring nuclear options and demonstrating readiness for full-scale mobilization—is driven by crystal clear historic memory and real threats, rather than by political symbolism. The approach is not mere election campaign bluster, and is therefore highly relevant to the Baltic states, wherever they are in their election cycles. Historically, Baltic states have strongly and even passionately identified with transatlantic unity, viewing it almost as a constitutional principle. However, the Baltic region now faces the stark realization that reliance on traditional transatlantic security assurances can no longer be the keystone of their defense policy. Far from it. 💡 To continue reading the full article and get more in your inbox, [subscribe to my free newsletter](https://landsbergis.com/#/portal/signup/) or [join Friends of Democracy](https://landsbergis.com/#/portal/signup/) for a free trial. _This post is for subscribers only._ ### The Trump-Putin Pact Already Exists, and We Should Act Accordingly URL: https://landsbergis.com/the-trump-putin-pact-already-exists-and-we-should-act-accordingly/ Last updated: 2025-05-28T10:33:01.000Z The fact that military assistance to Ukraine might have been cut before Zelensky’s meeting with Trump in the Oval Office—and only later reconnected—should serve as an example of the current mindset in Washington. ## Sign up for my free newsletter We fight for freedom together! Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. ## **Trump is seeking alignment with Putin.** Putin has asked for concessions, and concessions have been promised. We may not yet know the full extent of those promises, but we must be prepared for all of it—Ukraine’s sovereignty, military support, security guarantees, and political future could all have already been handed over in exchange for the alignment Trump is pursuing. But since openly selling out to Putin is still politically unpalatable, the administration will use any means necessary to cover its tracks. As someone who grew up in 1990s Lithuania, I remember all too well how the older kids from the nearby Russian school would wait for us on our way to class. If they had decided to beat you up, they would find a reason. It didn’t matter what you did—if you happened to walk by, they would make it happen. ## **It reminds me of an old Russian prison joke.** A man asks another for a cigarette. The other says he doesn’t have one. “Do you have a light?”—“No, I don’t smoke.” The first man sighs, then punches him. “Why?” the beaten man asks. “Because you’re not wearing a hat.” Pochemu bez shapy? That’s how it worked in the streets too. If you had a cigarette, they took it. If you had money, they took it. If you gave them nothing, they hit you just because. There was no right answer, because it was never about cigarettes, or money, or hats. It was about power. And if you wanted to survive, you had to act accordingly. If you could fight, you fought. If you couldn’t fight, you avoided their territory. If you couldn’t avoid it, you made sure you weren’t alone. What you didn’t do was think that carrying a hat, cigarettes, or money would save you. That was the mistake of those who didn’t understand the rules—they gave up everything and still got beaten. Because the Russian thug stops only when challenged. And the same logic plays out not just on the streets, but in geopolitics. “Sign this deal on your minerals.” “Ok.” “Well… then we’ll punch you because you didn’t wear a suit.” It’s not about the minerals, or the elections, or any of it. **It’s about submission.** That was true in 1939, when the Soviet Union signed a Mutual Assistance Pact with Lithuania and stationed 20,000 troops in the country. A year later, the Soviets declared that there was an "incident" involving a few Soviet soldiers. This "incident" was used as the pretext for an ultimatum. The Soviets demanded the resignation of Lithuania’s government and the handover of the Chief of Intelligence and the Minister of the Interior. Lithuania was given 48 hours to comply. But even as Lithuania’s Foreign Minister was receiving the ultimatum, Soviet troops were already advancing towards Lithuania. By the time the deadline expired, the occupation was a fait accompli. We didn’t know then that it had all been agreed in advance in the secret Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. Today, we have no excuse for such naivety. It’s a safe bet that the Trump-Putin Pact already exists—and we should act accordingly. ### Only Friends E06 – Hungary's got to go URL: https://landsbergis.com/only-friends-e06-hungarys-got-to-go/ Last updated: 2025-03-05T19:59:18.000Z These video messages are available exclusively to paying members of Friends of Democracy, my squad of hardcore freedom fighters who support my work to the fullest. To enlist, simply subscribe to the [Friends of Democracy](#/portal/signup) plan. Thank you so much for joining! _This post is for subscribers on the Friends of Democracy tier only._ ### The Trump-Putin Pact will be disastrous, say Baltics, again URL: https://landsbergis.com/the-trump-putin-pact-will-be-disastrous-say-baltics-again/ Last updated: 2025-03-03T19:12:10.000Z > *This special analysis is available exclusively to paid members of Friends of Democracy. If you would like to read the whole article* [*sign in to your Friends account*](https://landsbergis.com/#/portal/signin?ref=preview) *or* [*sign up for a free trial*](https://landsbergis.com/#/portal/signup?ref=preview)*.* Two weeks have passed since the Munich Security Conference, an opportunity which the United States took to declare, in no uncertain terms, that Europe must take responsibility for its own defence. Not only that, but the U.S. signalled a realignment of interests with those of Russia. ## Sign up for my free newsletter We fight for freedom together! Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. After the conference I predicted that President Trump’s decision to negotiate with Russia without Europe and Ukraine at the table would have detrimental consequences for us all. I warned that the only way forward is for Europe to build its own strength—financially, militarily, and diplomatically—so that we can offer our own terms for peace and have the means to enforce them. I was certainly not the only one stressing this point. Two weeks later, we saw a major falling out, culminating in the now-infamous ambush of Zelenskyy in the Oval Office. But what I saw there worries me much less than the messages of wide-eyed surprise coming from Brussels. Were those two weeks not long enough to let the implications of Vance’s Munich speech sink in? ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/46/1646b851-f8fd-48ff-9390-fa25f8de699d/content/images/2025/03/Screenshot-2025-03-03-at-20.07.13.png) Two weeks that could have been spent making decisions to support Ukraine, to confiscate Russian assets, to strengthen Europe’s defense industry. Instead, those weeks were spent writing and rewriting “don’t panic” tweets, searching for hope between the lines of the messages coming from Washington. “Maybe they don’t mean it, maybe it’s just a tactic to push us into action, maybe everything is still fine,” I heard. Well, they *did* mean it. And no, it will not magically be “fine.” We must get up off the chair and start putting out the fire. > *This special analysis is available exclusively to paid members of Friends of Democracy. If you would like to continue reading the whole article, subscribe below.* _This post is for subscribers on the Friends of Democracy tier only._ ### Only Friends E05 – Greetings from Kyiv URL: https://landsbergis.com/only-friends-e05-greetings-from-kyiv/ Last updated: 2025-02-24T21:09:08.000Z My weekly messages are available exclusively to paying members of Friends of Democracy, my squad of hardcore freedom fighters who support my work to the fullest. To enlist, simply [subscribe to the Friends of Democracy](#/portal/signup). Thank you so much for joining! _This post is for subscribers on the Friends of Democracy tier only._ ### We have talked ourselves almost to death URL: https://landsbergis.com/we-have-talked-ourselves-almost-to-death/ Last updated: 2025-02-23T07:57:34.000Z ### I want to tell you a story. In 2015, I was in the Lithuanian city of Panevežys, standing with the locals, watching a military parade. But this was no ordinary parade, because marching alongside the Lithuanian troops were our American allies. ## Sign up for Gabrielius Landsbergis Gabrielius Landsbergis, Former Foreign Affairs Minister of Lithuania Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Not long after Russia annexed Crimea, in an impressive show of solidarity, Bradleys, Humvees, and Abrams rolled through Lithuanian streets that, just a quarter of a century earlier had been under occupation by the Soviet Union. An elderly man stood near me at the roadside, waving a pair of pink tulips at the passing tanks. As they rumbled by he shed a tear and I heard him murmur to himself, "Oh, how long I have waited for this". Decades before, during the early years of Soviet oppression, Lithuanians were huddled around radios, listening to American speeches declaring the occupation illegal, believing that these powerful words would soon be backed up with action. The idea that the world would move on while Lithuania remained occupied was simply unthinkable. Partisans were surviving in forest bunkers and waiting for the day American tanks would roll up, ready to fight for freedom. > **Join Friends of Democracy** > If you would like to support my work and get access to premium content, join Friends of Democracy and we'll fight for freedom together! [Start your free trial here](#/portal/signup) It took more than 60 years for freedom to come. We unchained ourselves from the Soviets and joined NATO. Lithuania and the United States stood shoulder to shoulder in an alliance that seemed unshakable. President GW Bush flew to Vilnius to give a speech on the steps of City Hall. He declared any enemy of Lithuania to be an enemy of the United States, and a plaque bearing those words remains on the wall to this day. While it could be said that the West lacked the energy to confront Stalin after WWII, this is certainly not true regarding Putin in 2025\. The US and NATO have the power to do anything they want, to choose absolutely any future for Europe. However, Biden’s appeasement policy reminds us of Chamberlain, and Trump’s policy looks like capitulation. No historic parallels can be drawn, because no other leader in the West has ever placed the interests of an aggressor above those of an ally. Trump the self-appointed peacemaker is increasing the likelihood of war, not decreasing it. Putin is being given a licence to kill, not a one-way ticket to The Hague. It’s even more than a licence to kill, it’s an invitation. Putin escalated in 2022 because he believed President Biden’s responses were weak. If he escalates now, it will be because he sees that President Trump doesn’t care, or doesn’t realise how weak America’s stance appears to be. Iron Curtain 2.0 is a blurred boundary of indifference, of hesitation, of shirked responsibility. And this suits Putin, because he doesn’t want the West safe and sustainable behind a fixed border, he wants the West to fail completely. And so the only hope for Europe is Europe itself. But Europe was never designed to move fast or break things. Europe was designed to be slow, calm, and never again able to fight against itself. Putin’s only hope is that Europe stays in a self-induced coma, unable to seize frozen assets, unable to manufacture weapons, unable to move troops in any significant numbers. Unable to defend the values that were chosen for very good reasons. It is far too late for further discussion on this. We know what needs to be done, we have talked ourselves almost to death. Now the only thing left to do is to back up the words with actions. I often hear that we need realism, not idealism. But realism never brought anyone peace and never liberated any oppressed nations. Only the dogged determination to defend our values ever achieved the victories we cherish. Only dreams and hard work can make us great again. ## What a week ICYMI – This week I have given more interviews than ever before, and next week I am in Kyiv, so things aren't going to slow down any time soon. Here's some links to catch up on what I have been saying to the world's media: 🇺🇸[Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/02/19/ukraine-russia-trump-elections-zelensky/?ref=landsbergis.com) | 🇩🇪[Public Sphere](https://publicsphere.news/p/q-and-a-lithuanias-former-top-diplomat?ref=landsbergis.com) | 🇺🇦[United24](https://x.com/united24media/status/1892325342452343134?s=61&ref=landsbergis.com) | 🇺🇦[UATV](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BzANXk4VxEc&ref=landsbergis.com) | 🇩🇪[Der Spiegel](https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/ukraine-krieg-truppen-aus-china-als-friedenssicherung-in-der-ukraine-a-32bcbb93-029e-493d-942e-7ed0d0297dba?giftToken=5e386313-aca7-4cc9-96fc-db23315d3358&ref=landsbergis.com) | 🇷🇴[HotNews.ro](https://hotnews.ro/interviu-ce-vedem-acum-e-o-sarada-care-se-va-incheia-cu-sua-oferind-o-mare-victorie-rusiei-e-cel-mai-rau-scenariu-dar-se-intampla-deja-verdictul-unui-fost-ministru-de-externe-din-1905395?ref=landsbergis.com) | 🇮🇹[Il Foglio](https://www.ilfoglio.it/esteri/2025/02/20/news/le-risorse-della-nostra-europa-sott-attacco-parla-landsbergis-7438777/?ref=landsbergis.com) | 🇩🇪[Deutsche Welle](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=foReyT%5FEuNw&ref=landsbergis.com) | 🇨🇦[CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/video/9.6655934?ref=landsbergis.com) | 🇩🇪[Zeit Online](https://www.zeit.de/2025/08/gabrielius-landsbergis-ukraine-russland-truppen-europa?ref=landsbergis.com) ### Carrying a small stick And finally, my evaluation of the negotiating tactics employed by President Trump: 0:00 /1:04 1× ### Only Friends E04 URL: https://landsbergis.com/only-friends-e04/ Last updated: 2025-02-16T21:04:14.000Z *This exclusive weekly video message from Gabrielius is available to all paid members. If you are a member already, log in to see this post.* *To become a member with a free trial, click the* [***SUBSCRIBE***](https://landsbergis.com/only-friends-e03/#/portal/signup) *button and choose Friends of Democracy. Thank you for supporting my work!* _This post is for subscribers on the Friends of Democracy tier only._ ### China could win the war against Ukraine without firing a shot URL: https://landsbergis.com/china-could-win-the-war-against-ukraine-without-firing-a-shot/ Last updated: 2025-02-15T18:29:27.000Z Once again I am leaving the Munich Security Conference in a low mood. Amongst all the noise, the US signalled their plans for Europe, so things are becoming clearer. But things are clearly not good. ## Sign up for Gabrielius Landsbergis Gabrielius Landsbergis, Former Foreign Affairs Minister of Lithuania Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. ### This is what we now know, and what we have to do about it: Ukraine can no longer rely on US assistance. The US President wants a deal, and he wants it fast. Fast deals cost more for the buyer, but the US is not willing to foot the bill. So, ultimately, Ukraine will have to pay the price. The US is no longer happy to be the main guarantor of security in Europe. There are talks of a partial withdrawal of troops, and a clear shift of priorities to other continents. The current US administration does not see the EU as it once did—culturally it sees itself aligned with the movements within Europe that are interested in destruction. And this raises the very concerning question—what now are the US interests in Europe? This is all happening at a very inconvenient time. So we have to think very seriously about how it might play out. ### Here is how I think things could go from here: There is a strong possibility that the meeting between Putin and Trump will result in agreement. Putin is in the position to ask for it all. He might demand an election, the occupied territories, and Ukrainian neutrality. All these ideas have been teased. If Trump agrees, which he might well do, Putin will declare a complete victory. This is what he wanted to achieve and he got it, he will say. Let’s not forget that the threat of additional sanctions was mentioned only if Putin does not agree to negotiate. Oh but he will. President Trump will dump this dead cat deal at Europe's door and say take it or leave it. Then it's up to Europe to decide whether or not to stick up for Ukraine and support rejection of the deal. People who say that Europe must be at the table should remember that to be invited, you have to matter. If Europe commits to money, troops and a European path for Ukraine, we will make our own table and Ukraine, Putin, and Trump can be invited. But time is running out. If Europe is unable to stand up, Ukraine will be forced to rely on itself and a smaller group of allies that continue to give support. Threats to European security will grow immensely. Putin will get braver, meaning more war in Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and beyond. Europe is technically fully able to adapt and rise to this challenge, but the question remains one of political will, or the lack of it. Indecision will lead in only one direction, and it won’t be pretty. ### China is waiting in the wings I have always felt that China is looking for a way to emerge as the victor, and that is worryingly possible. If the US and Europe don't offer security to Ukraine, China might step into the gap, using its leverage on Russia. They could even offer a better deal than Trump's. Ukraine has a lot to offer to China in return for security—rebuilding, ports, agricultural produce. There will be those in Europe who will support this. This gambit could be called a "Kissinger", splitting the US and Europe as Kissinger split the Soviet Union and China. It gets worse. China as Ukraine's protector would start replacing the US in the role of keeping Russia out of the Eastern Flank. EU countries in the East would be dependent on China's protection and the racketeering would spread West. What needs to happen to avoid this all-too-likely disaster? My hope lies with Europe, with the appearance of a leader with Churchill’s resolve, the spirit to say we will never surrender, we will defend all of Europe, from Ukraine to Portugal. I am fully aware that my suggestion leads only to blood, toil, tears and sweat. But we have done it before and we can do it again. The alternative is to rebuild the continent after another devastating war, and that would be much harder and take much more time. So I return from Munich to Lithuania with dark thoughts on my mind. And while I accept that the statements made by the US Vice President were the necessary medicine for a lethargic Europe, I just pray the cure doesn’t kill the patient. *If you would like to get early access to content and an exclusive video message every week, you can join my paid subscription club *Friends of Democracy*. Thank you for supporting my work, and let's keep going.* [Start free trial](#/portal/signup) ### ESCALATION E03 - Dmytro Kuleba - Former Foreign Minister of Ukraine URL: https://landsbergis.com/escalation-e03-dmytro-kuleba-former-foreign-minister-of-ukraine/ Last updated: 2025-02-12T19:42:31.000Z In this very special episode of the Escalation podcast I talked to my good friend Dmytro Kuleba to find out more about Ukraine's situation, mood and prospects. --- Become a paid subscriber and get early access to content. I'll also send you an exclusive video message every week. Join the Friends of Democracy today! [Start your free trial here](#/portal/signup) --- With Dmytro I discussed the failures of de-escalation and the historical context that has shaped Western perceptions of Ukraine. Touching on peace plans, security guarantees and nuclear weapons, this is a very enlightening crash course in what the West is doing wrong. We are very honoured to have Dmytro with us, and I hope you enjoy the show. ## Subscribe to ESCALATION on: [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/@glandsbergis?ref=landsbergis.ghost.io), [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/2wCWkxnpQGwj4qE41tk7U2?ref=landsbergis.ghost.io) and [Apple](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/escalation-with-gabrielius-landsbergis/id1791398669?ref=landsbergis.ghost.io) --- ### [Join Friends of Democracy](https://landsbergis.com/escalation-e03-dmytro-kuleba-former-foreign-minister-of-ukraine/#/portal/signup) to get early access to podcasts and Only Friends messages from Gabrielius every week. [Start your free trial now!](https://landsbergis.com/escalation-e03-dmytro-kuleba-former-foreign-minister-of-ukraine/#/portal/signup) ### Unlock Dmytro Kuleba on the Escalation podcast URL: https://landsbergis.com/unlock-dmytro-kuleba-on-the-escalation-podcast/ Last updated: 2025-02-11T22:45:06.000Z ### Dmytro Kuleba joined me on the podcast! You can get early access to Dmytro's episode when you [join Friends of Democracy](https://landsbergis.com/unlock-dmytro-kuleba-on-the-escalation-podcast/#/portal/signup). 0:00 /0:15 1× If you would like to unlock the Dmytro Kuleba episode you can [start your free trial](https://landsbergis.com/unlock-dmytro-kuleba-on-the-escalation-podcast/#/portal/signup) to get access right now. [Unlock this episode](https://landsbergis.com/unlock-dmytro-kuleba-on-the-escalation-podcast/#/portal/signup) When you've signed up to Friends of Democracy and logged in, [come back to this page](https://landsbergis.com/unlock-dmytro-kuleba-on-the-escalation-podcast/) and you can see the episode below, before we publish it everywhere else. _This post is for paying subscribers only._ ### Only Friends E03 URL: https://landsbergis.com/only-friends-e03/ Last updated: 2025-02-10T20:49:19.000Z *This exclusive weekly video message from Gabrielius is available to all paid members. If you are a member already, log in to see this post.* *To become a member with a free trial, click the* [***SUBSCRIBE***](https://landsbergis.com/only-friends-e03/#/portal/signup) *button and choose Friends of Democracy. Thank you for supporting my work!* _This post is for subscribers on the Friends of Democracy tier only._ ### What are we going to do with Lake Nato? URL: https://landsbergis.com/what-are-we-going-to-do-with-lake-nato/ Last updated: 2025-02-09T20:20:55.000Z The year 1992, when EU leaders were debating how to integrate the fragmented Baltic region, now feels like ancient history. At the time, only two countries bordering the Baltic Sea—Denmark and Germany—were members of the EU. Only three—Denmark, Germany, and Norway—were in NATO. Sweden and Finland had no aspirations to join the defensive alliance, nor were they part of the EU. Meanwhile, the Baltic states had just emerged from decades of Soviet occupation with a long and uncertain path ahead of them in order to fully rejoin the West. And then, there was Russia. A key question for policymakers—how should the West engage with the Russian Federation? ## Sign up for my free newsletter We fight for freedom together! Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. In response, German and Danish foreign ministers proposed a new framework: the Council of the Baltic Sea States (CBSS), which would include Russia. Officially, the mission was to foster cross-border cooperation, track abducted children and raise awareness of the region’s shared destiny. In reality, it served a more strategic function—providing an annual forum where Western ministers tried to convince Russia to behave itself. Over the years, the CBSS evolved, inviting Iceland and the EU to join. However, after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow was expelled, leaving an organization with nearly all its members in the EU and NATO (Norway and Iceland aren’t in the EU, but have very close economic links with it anyway). ## **Mission accomplished. So does the CBSS have a future?** To address this question, a report was commissioned, and its authors will be former Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves and myself. As we travel across the region, meeting with ministers, officials, and academics, we are gathering insights on where interests align. While the report is still in progress, I’d like to share three critical questions that, in my view, must be answered to define the future of the Baltic region. ## **1 - Convergence, not divergence** The Baltic States have long been ahead of the curve in recognizing the Russian threat. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion, we have witnessed what might be called a ‘Baltification’—a shift in Western Europe's security mindset, re-aligning to be closer to the Baltic perspective. This shift is clearly evident in the appointments of Baltic representatives to key EU defense and foreign policy positions. And yet, this process remains incomplete. We still see differing opinions regarding the region’s future security risks—and the means to address them. Can the Council of the Baltic Sea States serve as a catalyst for further convergence of Western and Baltic approaches? Could it help bridge differences in strategic thinking, ensuring a more unified European approach to security? ## **2 - Regional collective defence** Would the Baltic region benefit from its own sub-level Article 4/5 collective defence framework? Given increasing Russian hybrid threats—cable cutting, weaponized migration, cyberattacks—does the region need an actionable political structure that can respond locally but also escalate issues to NATO and the EU? Ultimately, major security decisions will always flow through NATO and the EU. However, a strong regional organization could serve as a conduit, translating local threats into policy responses at higher levels. Would such a structure make the alliance more responsive, or would it create unnecessary bureaucracy? ## **3 - Regionalisation is already happening** Some argue that regional organizations weaken NATO and the EU by diverting attention and resources away from larger institutions. Instead of evolving to meet modern security needs, they can become silos, preventing broader reform. But regionalization is already happening. Consider defense spending: while NATO debates whether some members should reach 2% of GDP, Eastern Flank states have already adapted to new geopolitical realities, rewriting their social contracts to prioritize defence. The question is—could deeper Baltic regional cooperation become a beacon to guide the whole Alliance, increasing NATO solidarity rather than splitting it up. ## **Our report will be released in May** Addressing these questions is not just about redefining the Council of the Baltic Sea States—it is about shaping the region’s future. We have a lot of Baltic problems demanding strategic Baltic solutions, and we’re just getting started. It’s an honour to be co-writing the blueprint for meeting all these challenges and a pleasure working with Toomas. Stay tuned—our findings will be released in May. *If you're not already a member of my club *Friends of Democracy*, click here for a free trial and get access to exclusive Only Friends content:* [Start free trial](#/portal/signup) ### ESCALATION E02 - Thórdís Gylfadóttir - Former Foreign Minister of Iceland URL: https://landsbergis.com/escalation-e02-thordis-gylfadottir-former-foreign-minister-of-iceland/ Last updated: 2025-06-05T17:42:18.000Z Thórdís Gylfadóttir was Iceland's Minister of Foreign Affairs until recently. And recently a lot has been going on in her neighbourhood–the North Atlantic and Arctic. She explains her perspective to Gabrielius Landsbergis at this historic and unpredictable moment in the region's history. You can read more in my latest article [**The Art of the Greenland Deal**](https://landsbergis.com/the-art-of-the-greenland-deal/). ## Subscribe to ESCALATION on: [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/@glandsbergis?ref=landsbergis.ghost.io), [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/2wCWkxnpQGwj4qE41tk7U2?ref=landsbergis.ghost.io) and [Apple](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/escalation-with-gabrielius-landsbergis/id1791398669?ref=landsbergis.ghost.io) --- ## Sign up for my free newsletter We fight for freedom together! Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. ### [Join Friends of Democracy](#/portal/signup) and get Only Friends messages from Gabrielius every week. Try for free! [Free trial](#/portal/signup) ### The Art of the Greenland Deal URL: https://landsbergis.com/the-art-of-the-greenland-deal/ Last updated: 2025-02-03T18:37:33.000Z To say Europe is in a tricky situation over Greenland would be an understatement, but this is a crisis we shouldn’t be wasting. In fact, we should be immediately grabbing this opportunity to reassert the EU’s relevance on the world stage. Rather than engaging at EU level, Trump is singling out Denmark. But let’s not forget that the EU has the collective economic weight to make big deals, and the only predictable thing about Trump is that he likes to do big deals. We could tempt him with an offer. We could be throwing our weight into a reinvigoration of the transatlantic partnership, thereby strengthening the EU and showing our enemies that reports of our decline have been greatly exaggerated. ## Sign up for my free newsletter We fight for freedom together! Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. First, some background. The Greenland debate didn’t come out of nowhere. Since the establishment of NATO, Greenland has been a strategic territory for the Alliance. As a halfway base between the US and Europe, Greenland has hosted US troops and aircraft under a US-Denmark Defence Agreement which was signed in 1951 and amended as recently as 2020\. It is no surprise that the Northern Atlantic and Arctic are areas of increasing interest for Great Powers, most famously because of emerging new trade routes opening up due to climate change. But trade routes are not the only reason to be interested in the region. It is also, as Trump has so loudly confirmed, strategically important for defence. During the First Cold War, the Soviet Union was eager to limit NATO operating capabilities in the Northern Atlantic. In the unfolding Second Cold War, China and Russia have the same interests—they are eager to set up listening posts, patrol the North Atlantic with submarines and engage in shadow activity in the cable-heavy parts of the Ocean. It’s no surprise that the largest embassy in Reykjavik is Chinese. Greenland’s inching closer to independence is attracting even more Chinese curiosity, and with that comes more Western concern. I can imagine that in the meeting rooms of the security think tanks this question was raised: *“What should the US do if there is increased Chinese influence in the Northern Atlantic?”*. I can also imagine that this issue was offered to the President as a talking point. And now—we are where we are. ## **Why don’t we just let Denmark handle this?** Borders are an agreed principle, they do not change according to unilateral desires. “We need it for security reasons” is the oldest trick in the book, and this trick is often backed up by military force. You know the parallels I am talking about. Putin’s and Xi’s ideal world is divided into influence zones according to fiat, not international agreements and the rule of law. In this world nobody would have to defend smaller countries, so they would be easily available for absorption by empires. If we start neglecting the rules-based order ourselves, Putin and Xi will be very pleased that we have accepted their version of reality. They also love to see us distracted. The busier we are solving issues among ourselves—the less time we have to worry about our enemies. And who knows, our alliances might simply break up, leaving us exposed. With these very real risks ahead we shouldn’t even contemplate standing idly by during a deepening conflict between democratic partners. The damage that would be caused to NATO if Denmark, one of the founding members, would be forced to go solo against the United States would be immeasurable. Transatlantic bonds would be strained to breaking point, Europe’s defendability would deteriorate. All this means that Denmark should not and must not be left to deal with this alone. Europe, if it is to survive, must be one for all, and all for one. ## **The China Plan must be cremated and buried forever** Standing in solidarity with Denmark is vital, but Europe, even when combined, doesn’t have enough leverage to pick a fight with America. So some people see the answer in closer cooperation with China as a counterbalance to US domination. However, this China Plan is one of the less intelligent ideas floating around, to put it politely. Facing facts: Europe has never been more vulnerable and “zeitenwende” hasn’t escaped the realm of fiction. Europe is not being taken seriously on the world stage, whether in Greenland or Ukraine or anywhere else. Any flirting with China would immediately destroy our last shred of credibility with the current US administration and gift them a good reason to throw us to the wolves. Seeking China’s “assistance” would mean creating dependence on an authoritarian regime that shares more interests with Russia than with the EU. It would be like jumping out of the frying pan, into the melting core of a collapsed nuclear power station. ## **The EU must do a deal, but not with Xi** As I have shown, the EU can’t afford to abandon Denmark, can’t wait for the US to change course, and can’t go running to Xi for help. All those options would cause champagne to be opened in Moscow in celebration of our imminent demise. We are left with only one option, and it isn't even a bad option—we can do a deal with Trump. We can’t survive long without the absolutely vital transatlantic friendship, so instead of picking a fight, the EU has to patiently convince the US that the rules-based status quo is in their best interests, and that abandoning this principle in Europe would simply create a huge opportunity for China and Russia. Nobody in the White House wants that, do they. The EU actually has plenty to offer. The deal could be negotiated to give Trump a significant win to show his people, without the EU giving up on international law. The EU, with its huge buying power, can offer to purchase game-changing amounts of gas, oil and weapons made in American factories, creating American jobs. And those are exactly the things we need to buy anyway—weapons to deter Russia militarily, oil and gas to replace Russia economically. At the same time we can increase sanctions on Russia’s energy exports, kneecapping an aggressor. Simply picking up the phone and suggesting such an idea would reassure Trump that the EU is moving away, not towards, China. The deal I am suggesting wouldn’t be permanent, because after years of peacetime investment the EU would be strong enough to fight alongside the US as equals, rather than being discarded by the US as useless. We would have the capacity to defend our borders and skies without major assistance, just as Trump wants us to. But all this is not going to happen overnight, and not fast enough to fend off a steady Russian advance. ## **So what are we waiting for? A miracle?** Sealing a win-win EU-US deal right now would be smart cooperation, not embarrassing capitulation. But what’s scaring me, as I write this, is the ominous silence from Brussels, the absence of any initiative to put something on the table. I can almost hear the wishful thoughts that this will all blow over, or that China can become an honest partner despite being allied with our biggest threat. Europeans searching for a way out of the current awkwardness should be starting negotiations with Washington, not flirting with Beijing. To save the EU we don’t need Nord Stream 3 or Chinese cars. We need solidarity in the face of adversity, mutual understanding with the most powerful ally in the world, and the good sense to play the strongest cards in our hand, not the cards we should have thrown away years ago. ### Only Friends E02 URL: https://landsbergis.com/only-friends-e02/ Last updated: 2025-02-02T19:33:19.000Z _This post is for subscribers on the Friends of Democracy tier only._ ### Only Friends E01 URL: https://landsbergis.com/only-friends-e01/ Last updated: 2025-02-02T19:30:23.000Z _This post is for subscribers on the Friends of Democracy tier only._ ### The EU is in danger of becoming an existential threat to itself URL: https://landsbergis.com/the-eu-is-in-danger-of-becoming-an-existential-threat-to-itself/ Last updated: 2025-02-03T18:57:58.000Z > *“People only accept change when they are faced with necessity, and only recognise necessity when a crisis is upon them.”* Thus spoke Jean Monnet, a founding architect of the European Union, in his memoirs. Monnet’s insight—born from Europe’s post-war reconstruction—rings truer than ever today as Europe faces its most complex challenges since the Second World War. The democratic distance between Europe’s citizens and its executive—the European Commission—prevents fast policy reactions. Unlike nation states, where change can be mandated almost instantly, the EU’s structure often leads to paralysis. ## Sign up for my newsletter Gabrielius Landsbergis, Former Foreign Affairs Minister of Lithuania Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Europe does not have a way to create a public European mandate, to send a direct request to the politicians through an election process. A sum (or usually the lowest common denominator) agreed at the European Council rarely represents “what Europe actually wants.” It is either formulated from the top down—where Commission experts decide what the continent needs and try to persuade the leaders to accept it—or it is a minimal consensus agreed upon by all the leaders, which is then handed to the Commission to implement. With few Europeans aware of the EU’s policy agenda or promises made during European Parliamentary elections, public buy-in remains elusive. This public-to-politics disconnect manifests itself in Europeans rarely understanding why certain policies are implemented only to be abruptly abandoned. Without a strong mandate from its people, the EU struggles to align its actions with public expectations. Since the most important decisions in the EU require unanimous agreement, reaching a strong decision demands almost unanimous public pressure across all member states. For a society as large as the European Union, this pressure only materialises when a crisis affects almost everyone. One such example was the pandemic, which impacted nearly everyone in Europe and created sufficient pressure on both representatives and the Commission to act quickly. With this mandate, the EU overcame the political threshold of common borrowing—something never before possible—a feat many characterised as a “Hamiltonian moment.” This was supposed to bring the EU closer to economic federation. Europe, in line with Monnet’s prediction, emerged stronger from the crisis. Unfortunately, the momentum did not last. We are now in the third year of the biggest war in Europe since the Second World War. Sadly, you have heard all this before. A wide range of experts agree that the only way to force Russia off its imperialistic path is for it to lose on the battlefield—preferably without that battlefield expanding to other countries. Russia’s enormous military is preparing for further invasions, and its society, accustomed to aggression as part of national identity, will not change overnight. Russia’s nuclear doctrine, employed in Ukraine to scare the West into limiting support for Kyiv, could easily be used in other European countries as well, yes, including NATO countries. Hopes of a quick and sustained peace without Ukraine’s victory are increasingly unrealistic. Decades of economic dependence on the Chinese market have reached the point where Europe is constrained. For many businesses, survival hinges less on innovation and change than on maintaining access to China. This reliance leaves Europe vulnerable to retaliation, as demonstrated by Beijing’s economic measures against Lithuania over ties with Taiwan. If China were to escalate tensions in Taiwan or the South China Sea, Europe would find itself in an impossible situation—not endorsing the aggression but, because of economic dependencies, unable to take meaningful action. Adding to these external pressures are Europe’s internal struggles: slow economic growth, a lost battle for technological leadership and the rise of radical political voices. The far-right and populist movements are further weakening unity, while Europe’s failure to compete in the global technology race risks long-term stagnation. ## **What is this huge crisis if not the biggest crisis the EU has faced since its conception?** Our main hindrance is the inability to recognise this as a crisis at all. The fallout does not yet affect the entire European population—or at least not in a way that would compel Europe to change. Eastern flank countries see the war against Ukraine as an existential crisis. Meanwhile, those further west regard it as a passing quarrel likely to resolve itself. Few recognize China as a long-term threat, and even fewer are preparing strategies to address the shift in US foreign policy. Without agreeing that this is a crisis, the EU cannot change how it operates and instead continues business as usual. This means that the Council continues seeking consensus among its divergent opinions. Even without the disruptions from Hungary or Slovakia, the positions of Europe’s largest countries differ significantly. As a result, any consensus will focus on slow and incremental steps. The European Commission is still best placed to understand the complexity of these issues and anticipate the consequences of inaction, but it lacks the mandate to take far-reaching action. Straying too far from its mandate, even within the limits of its competencies, risks damaging its credibility and weakening the Union further. Both approaches—business as usual or a cautious Commission—will erode the EU’s global standing, making it weaker, more indecisive, and increasingly dependent on external powers’ decisions. Europe risks losing both US security guarantees and the Chinese market while achieving little in return. The EU, if it wants to survive the current storm and follow Jean Monnet’s prediction to emerge stronger, must change. It has shown that it can overcome financial constraints and defeat a pandemic. It can apply the same resolve to assist Ukraine, even if US support diminishes. It can push for enlargement, anchoring Ukraine, Moldova, and others firmly in the Western world. To survive, Europe must become more unified—meaning more federalised—with a European defence industry and budget. Decision-making must become faster, requiring a move to qualified majority voting in the Council. The first step should be implementation of Article 7 of The Treaty on European Union against those who, for personal political gain, undermine the EU’s ability to act. None of these ideas are new, but they have never had a mandate for implementation. It is therefore easy to agree with the populists and their ridicule of the EU’s structural weaknesses and the long and winding road from the electorate to the executive. However, the populists’ suggested “improvements” to the system are all destructive. Instead of an ever closer union, they generate ever growing disunity. That is probably why their political parties are so attractive to our worst enemies who want to destroy us completely. I have written before that it seems like all we can do is wait for a “Pearl Harbour” moment to shock us into collective action. Well, there are many candidates lining up: Ukraine is still not secure, the Baltic States can’t defend themselves alone, Greenland’s future is suddenly up for debate, we can’t agree on instruments to stop Chinese bullying, we have no navy to send to Taiwan, no energy to stay in Africa, Georgia is slipping away and our transatlantic security guarantees hang by a thread. My deepest fear is that even if several of these Pearl Harbours happen, we still won’t understand that the only solution is serious EU reform and preparation for even worse developments. It is no joke to say that Putin could get to Warsaw before western Europe would feel the existential threat necessary to trigger a bold enough reaction. From the perspective of frontline countries it can look like nobody else will understand these dangers until their parliaments’ windows are blown in by a T-72\. And by that time, I think it will probably be too late to begin negotiations for a joint EU defence budget. --- ### The Escalation Podcast Pilot Episode is here URL: https://landsbergis.com/the-escalation-podcast-pilot-episode-is-here/ Last updated: 2025-06-05T17:42:36.000Z I had a great conversation with human rights defender Vytis Jurkonis about his work with dissidents from Belarus and Russia. We made it into a podcast, and I hope you will enjoy it. I will be recording more in-depth conversations with people who can help us understand the new era of geopolitics and the history which led to it. The show is called Escalation. The pilot episode is totally free, so please like, share with friends and subscribe. ### Subscribe to Escalation on: [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/@glandsbergis?ref=landsbergis.ghost.io), [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/2wCWkxnpQGwj4qE41tk7U2?ref=landsbergis.ghost.io) and [Apple](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/escalation-with-gabrielius-landsbergis/id1791398669?ref=landsbergis.ghost.io) ### --- ### Tomorrow the world will change, again URL: https://landsbergis.com/tomorrow-the-world-will-change-again/ Last updated: 2025-02-03T18:57:45.000Z Trump is almost back in the White House, and China wants everybody to lose. 0:00 /1:01 1× Let me share some more thoughts, written on a plane, inspired by my recent travels. It was a tremendous honor to be presented with an award by Taiwan. It felt very special and even unreal to listen to what the President of Taiwan was saying during my trip. During one of the meetings I was welcomed “back” to Taiwan. This made me stop for a second—actually it is my first visit to the island. But, the politics, the diplomacy, and all the troubles we had to overcome together make it feel like I have been there many times. > My deepest gratitude to the people of Taiwan and their President [@ChingteLai](https://twitter.com/ChingteLai?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=landsbergis.com) for the huge honour of being awarded the Order of the Brilliant Star with Special Grand Cordon. What can I say? I will be with you whatever it takes, Taiwan. 🇱🇹❤️🇹🇼 [pic.twitter.com/wi53oVJTF8](https://t.co/wi53oVJTF8?ref=landsbergis.com) > > — Gabrielius Landsbergis🇱🇹 (@GLandsbergis) [January 14, 2025](https://twitter.com/GLandsbergis/status/1879057205397459185?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=landsbergis.com) Two themes were repeated in conversations throughout my trip. One was Lithuania’s donation of COVID vaccines in 2021. ### Vaccine diplomacy Back then many countries were starting to receive serious quantities of both AstraZeneca and Pfizer vaccines. Even though Lithuania was leading the region according to the percentage of people vaccinated, the stocks of vaccines were piling up. So the Foreign Ministry proposed donating the surplus vaccines to our partners in need, especially as we knew that even more doses would be reaching us soon. The first batches of donations went to Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and Taiwan. At the time there were accusations that western countries were not doing enough, as if they were going to make everyone wait until they had vaccinated themselves first. It was known that it would still take a long time for regular orders to reach those countries, and while waiting, the pressures on the governments of those countries would only grow. Lithuania stepping up with donations would show solidarity with the people who were waiting, and hopefully would inspire other countries to join in. Furthermore, this display of readiness allowed these countries to better control the debate about whether they should be using the dubious Russian and Chinese vaccines. Another aim of our vaccine diplomacy with Taiwan was to break the uncomfortable silence. It sometimes seemed that Taiwan was being kept out of public discourse (except in the US). China turned the Taiwan question into a diplomatic minefield. You could never be sure when a red line might be crossed because their red lines keep moving, so it's safer not to go anywhere at all. Even vaccine donations might be viewed as something potentially dangerous, but our decision broke the silence and forced the debate into the spotlight. The people of Taiwan deserve help from their friends, as do people everywhere. ### The Office Another common topic of conversation, far more widely discussed around the world, was "The Office". Allowing Taiwan to use the word “Taiwanese” in the name of their representative office drew the world’s attention to the new and separate identity that is now dominating among the people of Taiwan. During my trip I had quite a few opportunities to ask, “how do you identify yourself?” and I nearly always got the answer: “I am Taiwanese”. China's intention is to shroud the island of Taiwan in a mist, in obscurity and silence. The world should not know, should not talk, should look the other way and ignore what is happening in Taiwan. The Chinese ambassador in Canberra wrote an [op-ed in the Australian Financial Review](https://www.afr.com/world/asia/seven-truths-on-why-taiwan-always-will-be-china-s-20250112-p5l3l4?ref=landsbergis.com). It is a propaganda piece about how China would like us to see Taiwan. What is most interesting is how it resembled similar propaganda pieces written by Russians before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The main thrust of the op-ed being “Taiwan is an internal issue of China”. Putin spoke the same way about Ukraine. “Ukrainians are our brothers”. And this tactic is creepingly effective. “Brotherhood” immediately sounds like something sacrosanct. Those who don’t know better might start to think, “Well, the Chinese and Taiwanese speak the same language, share the same history and roots, so, maybe we should just stay out of it until these brothers solve their fraternal conflict”. But, as in the case of Russia and Ukraine, you have to look deeper to understand the fundamental differences. And anyway, in Ukraine, the war has eradicated the last remnants of closeness between the people of those two countries. You can’t force anyone to be your brother. That is the lesson we should now remember when thinking about Taiwan. ### Tomorrow the world changes, again If China is trying to get us to ignore Taiwan, we have to do the opposite—be present, be aware and be interested. That’s the very least we can do to make Ukraine, Taiwan and all our other friends safer. Putin has been unable to brush Ukraine under the carpet because Ukrainians are not silent, they speak out about what is happening, show us the atrocities and in many cases it forces the West to act. Democracy really does die in darkness, but in the light it has a fighting chance. The world is changing dramatically, and the changes are most visible on the faultlines—in Ukraine, in Taiwan, and in the Baltics. Just days before I arrived in Taipei a data cable to Taiwan was cut by a Mongolian ship with a Chinese crew. The investigation is of course ongoing, but again the resemblance to events in the Baltics is uncanny. Could it not be an extension of the shadow war that we are seeing in Europe? Until the investigation is complete we cannot know with certainty, but one thing is for sure: Western timidity in the shadow war clearly played a part in this escalation. China could have learned from the Russians that such operations are effective and worthwhile. These “incidents” are designed to weaken us by making us tense, divided, and more easily scared. There are three positive outcomes for the attacker: Firstly, something might actually get burnt or someone might be killed. Secondly, people trust alliances less when they see how slow allies are to react, if they react at all. Finally, support for Ukraine dwindles as more people begin to subscribe to the defeatist myth that one should not poke The Bear. So in effect Russia is putting a limit on how much we are able to support Ukraine. The aim of the shadow war is to scare us away, and, to some extent, it is working. So why wouldn’t China do the same with Taiwan? There are many people ready to ask—”Do we really want to risk our infrastructure? Can we really patrol every important building? Maybe we should be deescalating?”. And that is exactly what Russia and China want. Frontline democracies are connected in more ways than many of us realise. I am humbled to receive such high recognition from the people of Taiwan, but, for us to remain safe much more has to be done. On Monday a new geopolitical era starts with the swearing in of a returning POTUS. And it is yet to be determined if this new era will reinvigorate democracies, prepare us for a standoff with autocratic regimes, or just distract us with constant disruptions while our enemies implement their wicked plans. When entering a period of unknown unknowns we must, as much as possible, rely on ourselves and make the necessary preparations for stormier weather. ### VoA interview for my thoughts on Ukraine "The biggest mistake was to succumb to Russia's nuclear blackmail." [https://www.holosameryky.com/a/gabrielius-landsbergis-interview/7940040.html](https://www.holosameryky.com/a/gabrielius-landsbergis-interview/7940040.html?ref=landsbergis.com) ### My recent thread on the WTO case > Bloomberg reports that the EU is considering dropping its [@wto](https://twitter.com/wto?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=landsbergis.com) case against China due to a "lack of evidence" that China's sudden halt in trade with Lithuania was retribution for supporting Taiwan. Dropping the case is a bad idea, but don't worry, it gets worse.🧵1/6 > > — Gabrielius Landsbergis🇱🇹 (@GLandsbergis) [January 18, 2025](https://twitter.com/GLandsbergis/status/1880621061815046301?ref%5Fsrc=twsrc%5Etfw&ref=landsbergis.com) ## Just one more thing... **THE ESCALATION PODCAST** will be hitting your inbox very soon... ### In-depth interview in Le Grand Continent URL: https://landsbergis.com/in-depth-interview-in-le-grand-continent/ Last updated: 2025-01-14T12:42:04.000Z Here I go into detail about the changes happening in international affairs as Trump gets closer to his first day in office. [Read full interview](https://geopolitique.eu/en/2025/01/14/a-conversation-with-gabrielius-landsbergis-lithuanias-former-minister-of-foreign-affairs/?ref=landsbergis.com) An excerpt: ***President Trump promised the American people a quick end to the war, and President Zelenskiy himself admitted that his victory will speed up the end of the war. Will this fixation with time hurt Ukraine in future talks?*** *Not necessarily. The US has the right tools and has been able in similar situations in the past to formulate a strategy that will allow Ukraine to win. Not to win in the sense that the war is suddenly over. But to enable Ukraine to regain the upper hand on the battlefield. The US — with partners — has the military, financial and industrial capability to do that. If President Trump views the situation through this prism, rather than thinking about how to cover up losses, there are still cards to be played.* [Read full interview](https://geopolitique.eu/en/2025/01/14/a-conversation-with-gabrielius-landsbergis-lithuanias-former-minister-of-foreign-affairs/?ref=landsbergis.com) 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿English: [https://geopolitique.eu/en/2025/01/14/a-conversation-with-gabrielius-landsbergis-lithuanias-former-minister-of-foreign-affairs/](https://geopolitique.eu/en/2025/01/14/a-conversation-with-gabrielius-landsbergis-lithuanias-former-minister-of-foreign-affairs/?ref=landsbergis.com) 🇫🇷French: [https://legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/01/14/il-faut-mettre-fin-au-chantage-nucleaire-de-poutine-une-conversation-avec-gabrielius-landsbergis-ancien-ministre-des-affaires-etrangeres-de-lituanie/](https://legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/01/14/il-faut-mettre-fin-au-chantage-nucleaire-de-poutine-une-conversation-avec-gabrielius-landsbergis-ancien-ministre-des-affaires-etrangeres-de-lituanie/?ref=landsbergis.com) ### Freedom Lessons from Lithuania with Love URL: https://landsbergis.com/freedom-lessons-from-lithuania-with-love/ Last updated: 2025-02-03T18:57:23.000Z This year, on January 13th, I will not be in Lithuania for the day of remembrance of the tragic [January Events](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January%5FEvents?ref=landsbergis.com) of 1991\. I will be visiting Taiwan. Preparing for the trip I can’t shake the feeling of how much connects Lithuania and Taiwan. Despite great distances, differing cultural and historic backgrounds, there are forces that make us feel kinship. In recent years the enormous changes in global politics force us to deliberate how best we can defend what we cherish: Freedom, democracy, our way of life. If you attended our January 13th commemorations you would probably guess it is a day of mourning. We remember those who were killed, we rail at the injustice of the attack. Not even a year had passed since our declaration of independence, during which we endured an economic and energy blockade and received only a cold shoulder from the West. Then Gorbachev decided to end this brief chapter of our history militarily, sending his tanks out against the unarmed civilians of Vilnius. ![An unarmed man blocks the path of a Soviet tank in Vilnius, Lithuania on January 13th, 1990](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/46/1646b851-f8fd-48ff-9390-fa25f8de699d/content/images/2025/01/tank.jpg) [Lithuania's "Tank Man"](https://www.voanews.com/a/voa-interview-dr-ricardas-daunoravicius-lithuanian-tank-man-/7199021.html?ref=landsbergis.com) Ričardas Daunoravičius blocks the path of a Soviet tank in Vilnius - AFP/Scanpix The tragedy touched us all. It would be hard to find a family without at least one member who stepped out of the comfort of their home and went into that dark January night to defend their independence. ![The coffin of one of the victims of the January Events in Vilnius in 1990 is carried through a large crowd gathered in the Cathedral Square for the funeral of the victims of the Soviet crackdown on Lithuania's claims to independence.](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/46/1646b851-f8fd-48ff-9390-fa25f8de699d/content/images/2025/01/funeral.jpg) The funeral of the 14 unarmed civilians killed in Gorbachev's crackdown on Lithuania's independence - AP But while we mourn, we must remind ourselves that this is also a day of victory. When you look around Vilnius today you see the fruits of that victory, you see a free, democratic, European city, and what's more—one of the [happiest countries in the world](https://www.govilnius.lt/meet-in-vilnius/meeting-news/2024-happiness-rankings-lithuanias-proud-position-in-the-top-20?ref=landsbergis.com)! These are the aims that our struggle and sacrifice allowed us to achieve. The first lesson is this—belief in victory is far more important than we think. Any aggressor will try to force you to think that victory is impossible. You are too small, too insignificant and weak, resistance will only prolong your suffering. But if you ignore this lie and believe in the possibility of victory, you can become strong enough to achieve it. In small frontline countries where we faced occupations, partitions and all sorts of injustices, it is more normal to emphasise sadness and tragedy, rather than triumph. But the Soviet Union lost, Gorbachev lost, they lost the whole damn Cold War and we won. So, as we remember the fallen, we should also be building monuments of victory so that we and our visitors might be reminded that victory is always possible. --- If you walk around the old town of Vilnius you will stumble upon Iceland Street, distinguishable by the large number of bars and the happy young people inside them. The street name might not surprise you much, because we also have a Street of the Germans, a Street of the Jews, a Street of the Latvians and so on. Most of these earnt their name because of the people who lived there during previous centuries. But there were never any Icelanders living in Vilnius. A plaque on one of the buildings in Iceland Street explains—Iceland was the first country to recognize Lithuania, way before everyone else. After the official worldwide recognition of Lithuania, President Bush Snr was asked if it was a mistake for the US not to be the first to recognize us. He quipped that nobody will remember who was the first. Well, every year we celebrate Iceland Day with a street party. We are grateful to every country that recognized us, but the name of Iceland rings louder in our memories. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/46/1646b851-f8fd-48ff-9390-fa25f8de699d/content/images/2025/01/148818917_1662977120541529_4301801753207257002_n.jpg) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/46/1646b851-f8fd-48ff-9390-fa25f8de699d/content/images/2025/01/148919453_1662854650553776_1752226785466045780_n.jpg) The annual street party in Iceland Street, Vilnius When I observe Ukrainians fighting for their country another lesson stands out—friends come in very different shapes and sizes. Who could have imagined a Ukrainian minister standing together with a Syrian minister after the fall of Assad's regime? And yet here we are—Ukraine is about to become a major partner for the new Syria. And what about the weapons and assistance to Ukraine from Australia, South Korea and Taiwan? Friendships like these take a while to be established and require constant nurturing, but for frontline states they can make the difference between existence and collapse. My last lesson comes from Lithuania’s struggle in 1990\. Just after we declared our independence, the Soviets introduced a heavy embargo on everything we depended upon. We received no more goods or energy from the Soviet Union. We started reaching out to our would-be friends in the West for recognition and help. Instead we received a request in the form of a letter from President Mitterand and Chancellor Kohl requesting that Lithuania declares a moratorium on our claims to independence. That would effectively have meant abandoning the idea of an independent state and returning to the fold of the Soviet Union. If we would have listened and acted upon that request, we would have lost our country and our future. Maybe even the Soviet Union would still exist, propped up by the West’s fear of its collapse. Our Parliament devised a clever solution—Lithuania would give up its fight for independence as requested, but only after the Soviet Union recognized it. Of course by then there would be nothing to give up, because the country would already be recognized by its, now former, occupier. We didn’t act in the way our friends and future allies wanted us to. We did our own thing, and that is why we have a country now. Where would Ukraine be if their leaders had followed the advice to leave the country, if they agreed to de-escalate and start "loving Russia" as suggested by a famous podcaster. Who knows where Russia would be now, whose cities would be occupied? Today's reality is scary enough, so I don't even want to imagine a scenario in which Ukraine decided not to fight. So my advice is—do your thing. Stand your ground, defend your freedom and you will define reality on your own terms. This is what history has taught us. There is a big chance that I would not be travelling to Taiwan right now if today’s reality hadn’t been defined by Lithuania in 1990 and President Zelenskyy in 2022. Frontline countries understand these principles perfectly well. Each country that has fought for its independence has a story of its own, about alliances, about friends that revealed themselves at the darkest hour, about bravery and defiance in the face of a formidable adversary, and about the belief in victory that pushed them that last mile, allowing them to live to tell the tale. And in this we stand united, Lithuania, Ukraine, Taiwan and all the others that go on and on against all the odds, remembering in their hearts and in their history books that freedom is never free. ### What Can You Do With A Nuclear Bully? URL: https://landsbergis.com/what-can-you-do-with-a-nuclear-bully/ Last updated: 2025-02-03T18:57:14.000Z We now have sufficient confirmation that during the hugely successful Ukrainian counteroffensive of 2022 the US got an indication that Russia might use a nuclear device in order to prevent total collapse on the battlefield. This information strongly affirmed Washington’s feeling that beating Russia is almost impossible, and that any attempt might lead to rapid nuclear escalation. This was a hugely pivotal moment in world history, but I don't think it gets that kind of recognition. Previously, according to Russian military doctrine, a nuclear attack was supposed to be initiated only if Russia itself was under threat. After 2022, this was amended to include a collapse of Russia's military ability—even outside of Russia. It is one thing that Russia made this announcement, but quite another thing that the West accepted it, because it set in place an entirely new war paradigm. Any attack on a nearby country by Russia's conventional forces could now be followed by the threat of a nuclear strike if significant resistance is demonstrated by the victim or its allies. With this new playbook Russia completely controls escalation. Russia can escalate by invading, but the invaded party is forced to de-escalate in fear of nuclear disaster. It might be said that Russia’s Zapad 2009 exercise, playing out a scenario of a nuclear attack on Warsaw, was a precursor for the way Russia currently wages war on Ukraine. We had plenty of warning to prepare for the following escalations, but instead we were caught off guard when they came. It follows that it would not be too wild of me to suggest that Russia had two plans ready on the night before their attack on Ukraine in 2022\. Plan A, clearly too optimistic, was to take Kyiv in three days. This plan was foiled by the determination of Ukraine's leadership and their own people, more than by the West’s response. But it looks like Russia had a Plan B to switch to if things went wrong—nuclear blackmail. And here is the point of failure, that even though we witnessed Zapad in 2009 and had extensive knowledge of the mindset of Russia’s elite, we were not prepared for that Plan B. We didn't meet Russia's nuclear blackmail with pushback, we didn't introduce strategic costs or dilemmas for Russia in the event of such escalation. No, we instead allowed Russia to escalate, not only the war in Ukraine, but also the shadow war in the Baltics and elsewhere, all the while repeating publicly that we got the message from Moscow and we are inclined to do as Russia requests. What is even more concerning to me now are the announcements that Chinese involvement has been instrumental in persuading Russia to stop considering the nuclear option. Just imagine what sort of leverage this gives China. Now China and not the US (or EU for that matter) is the security guarantor of the European continent. Let that sink in. On one hand, it is easy to understand the sentiment which says that China has to be involved in the peace process in Ukraine. Clearly, if we are unable to deter Russian nuclear escalation and only China can do that, people start considering that maybe China should be invited to become the security guarantor for Ukraine. On the other hand, and there is always another hand, just imagine the price tag on such a request. One does not need to look far, just take the latest EU vote on tariffs for Chinese electric vehicles. It wasn't an easy task to get the required majority of countries in the EU to support the Commission's proposal. Afterwards, China threatened to treat the countries that voted in favour differently when it comes to trade deals, so it will be even more difficult to find a majority the next time around. Now you see what will happen to EU sovereignty if we outsource the security of our continent to China. All of this raises some very dire strategic questions. If Russia is able to blackmail the US and NATO into refraining from fully assisting a devastated and brutally invaded neighbour, is it possible that Russia could repeat this trick on NATO territory? Usually I get the answer “NATO territory is different, the nuclear umbrella works.” Indeed it does work, until it doesn't. Would allies want to risk a nuclear disaster for a piece of land—not even the whole country—somewhere in the Baltics? The excellent “salami tactics” episode of *Yes, Prime Minister* rings eerily true today. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/46/1646b851-f8fd-48ff-9390-fa25f8de699d/content/images/2025/01/gabris_itdepends.jpeg) **Adviser*: So will you press the button if they invade West Berlin?* **Prime Minister*: It all depends.* **Adviser*: On what? Scenario one. Riots in West Berlin, buildings in flames. East German fire brigade crosses the border to help. Would you press the button...? The East German police come with them. The button...? Then some troops, more troops just for riot control, they say. And then the East German troops are replaced by Russian troops. Button...?* I do understand that the US might be tired and might feel divided after the "forever wars”. It’s expected that a country doesn't want to entangle itself in a new conflict that doesn’t look totally winnable. But if this understandable reaction becomes a deep-rooted ideological belief, the world changes direction. Blind faith in “disengagement” allows malign actors all the operational space they want. If that happens, we *all* lose, not just Ukraine, Afghan women or Europe (which was and is obliged to do more), but also the US itself. There will inevitably be conflicts in the future where the US or its allies' interests will be challenged, and decisions taken in the last three years only served to make these conflicts a bit more likely and a bit more dangerous. So the main question is this: What can you do with a nuclear bully? I see two reasonable responses. The first is to recognise that the new Russian nuclear doctrine means there are no more grey zones of countries outside security alliances. You are either covered by the Allied umbrella or Russia will use its own nuclear weapons to blackmail you. So, in this regard, Ukraine’s request of NATO membership or similar security guarantees is the plan that makes the most sense. And clearly if this does not happen, talk of acquiring a nuclear weapon themselves—even if it takes decades—would actually be an understandable reaction, and one that I am sure many non-nuclear, non-allied countries are considering. Successful nuclear blackmail is bringing the non-proliferation age to its end. We should not be surprised to see more talk, and possibly more proliferation, if in this emerging new reality we leave vulnerable countries to fend for themselves. The second response we must give is to stop gifting strategic clarity to Russia. In other words, we must shroud our strategy in ambiguity. Again, we can look to *Yes, Prime Minister* for enlightenment. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/16/46/1646b851-f8fd-48ff-9390-fa25f8de699d/content/images/2025/01/gabris_trident.jpg) **Sir Humphrey*: With Trident we could obliterate the whole of Eastern Europe.* **Prime Minister*: I don't want to obliterate the whole of Eastern Europe.* **Sir Humphrey*: But it's a deterrent.* **Prime Minister*: It's a bluff. I probably wouldn't use it.* **Sir Humphrey*: Yes, but they don't know that you probably wouldn't.* **Prime Minister*: They probably do.* **Sir Humphrey*: Yes, they probably know that you probably wouldn't. But they can't certainly know.* **Prime Minister*: They probably certainly know that I probably wouldn't.* **Sir Humphrey*: Yes, but even though they probably certainly know that you probably wouldn't, they don't certainly know that although you probably wouldn't, there is no probability that you certainly would!* The only thing that should be made clear to Russia is that we have extremely effective ways of inflicting huge pain on Russia's armed forces, economy and international reach. NATO’s Cold War strategic concept of “deterrence by punishment” should be back in fashion. Contrary to the deep-rooted beliefs of some parties, Russian escalation should always be met with escalation. Our huge combined economy and military power would quickly make this brinkmanship untenable for Russia. It bears repeating that we have *always had* the ability to limit Russia’s activity in the Baltic Sea, to deny them operating space in Georgia, Moldova, Armenia, the Middle East or Africa. We have *always had* the ability to impose and enforce sanctions that would bring the economy to a standstill, but we chose not to. We have *always had* the ability to announce that any nuclear threats will be met with unprecedented force. We have *always had* conventional and cyber tools to make sure the message is well understood. We have *always had* the ability to keep the escalation spiral firmly under our control and with that deter Russia from even considering the nuclear option. Unfortunately this is not where we are currently at. Let all of this be a lesson for all of us—we are stronger than we are led to believe. if Ukrainians had believed what they were told, that they were too weak to survive, that Zelenskyy needs a ride—there would now be no Ukraine. Zelenskyy believed in ammo, and Ukraine still exists. In turn, we must not buy into the thoroughly debunked belief that the only way to deal with a crocodile is to feed it. ### New Year’s Resolution: Fight Back in Putin’s Shadow War URL: https://landsbergis.com/shadow-war/ Last updated: 2024-12-27T15:26:40.000Z It is well-known that Russia is waging a shadow war against the West, aiming to limit our ability to help Ukraine, sowing fear and confusion, polarising our societies, and, in effect, weakening NATO by reducing our will to defend ourselves. Kinetic attacks, such as the recent “damaged cables in the Baltic Sea” incidents, are deployed to create a sense of vulnerability in the minds of those affected. A single incident could be treated as an accident, albeit a very strange one, but the second occurrence looks too convenient to be a coincidence. The third such incident clearly indicated an act of state-sponsored terrorism, and one would expect a stern response. But Russia is betting that the doctrine of de-escalation—a rebranding of the failed strategy of appeasement—will continue to prevent NATO countries from any meaningful response, allowing Russia to act with impunity. When all NATO does is issue a statement of concern, Russia's gamble pays off and the sense of fear in our societies continues to grow, and grow, and grow, up to the point where it will start strongly influencing political processes. When media reports focus repeatedly on Russian meddling in the Baltic Sea, they unintentionally reinforce the perception that the Baltic Sea is not surrounded by NATO but is dominated by Russia. This creates a manufactured reality of insecurity that becomes increasingly difficult to diffuse as more people begin to accept it as truth. NATO’s guarantees of security rest not only on military capabilities, but also on trust and an almost metaphysical belief in deterrence—we say we are the mightiest alliance in the world, so we must be. But unchecked Russian activity is steadily eroding this façade. Three years ago, when Lukashenko hijacked a Ryanair flight bound from Athens to Vilnius, people believed every explanation *except* hijacking. Since then, the three years of war, sabotage, and terrorist activity have reshaped our thinking. When a DHL cargo plane crashed on approach to Vilnius airport a couple of weeks ago, it was hard to find anyone who refused to consider the possibility of Russian involvement. Another way Russia disrupts our paradigms of thinking is through its агентура, or “agency activity”. Lex Fridman, a prominent podcaster, recently proposed interviewing President Zelenskyy in Russian, “because they both speak it.” This logic of “ethnic brotherhood” springs directly from the Agency handbook. It would fit seamlessly into any of Putin’s infamous FT op-eds or his speeches at Munich. Some people called Lex’s tweet weird. I disagree—it was utterly consistent. Consistent with Russian messaging. One of the fundamental ways Russia whitewashes its aggression is by denying the existence of a separate Ukrainian culture, language, and statehood. When Russia says, “We are brothers,” this is not a declaration of fraternal support—this is a call to disregard the distinct identity of the “other brother”. As some Russians like to say: “We will choke you in our embrace.” And like the cables in the Baltic Sea, this is not just about disrupting everyday life—it’s about influencing how we think. Democratic societies, by their nature, are open, easy to probe, and therefore easy to influence. It takes time to push back, to fact-check lies, to explain complex historical realities, to counter the FUD that Russia’s agency activity spreads quickly and effectively. But time is not on our side. In 2025, with increased power and determination, we must push back on both fronts of Russia’s shadow war: against the deliberate disruptions of our daily lives, and against all attempts to win the battle for our minds. Putin knows he could not win against a united West. But if we are fractured, scared and indecisive we become a target he might attempt to hit. Putin’s shadow war has been keeping us where he wants us. When we realise this, breaking his spell shouldn’t be difficult. ### Peace Through Strength And That's It URL: https://landsbergis.com/peace-through-strength-and-thats-it/ Last updated: 2025-02-03T18:52:50.000Z Let’s remember how the West reacted after the first attack on Ukraine in 2014\. Minsk Agreements were made that forced Ukraine to negotiate, abandon parts of its territory and legitimize the occupation without any security guarantees or additional measures that would increase readiness in case of future attacks. Putin broke the agreements immediately and continued violations until the full-scale attack in 2022\. The OSCE mission that was supposed to monitor the ceasefire was thrown out of Russia, and could only document what was happening on the Ukrainian side. So in effect, as is usually the case – the victims were required to be more accountable than the aggressor. This meant that every bullet Ukraine fired back was carefully monitored and documented by international organizations, while Russia was free to build up its capabilities and kill constantly without any repercussions. Additionally, if implemented fully, the Minsk Agreements would have paralysed the Ukrainian state by giving a veto to the eastern regions. Immediately after the Minsk agreements were signed, the discussion on normalization of relations with Russia began. The sanctions that were imposed after the 2014 attack were very limited in their scope but there were attempts to remove even those. International conglomerates started to pop up in occupied Crimea. Russia was shooting and killing almost every single day during this “negotiated peace” until 2022\. I had the chance to visit Ukraine in 2017 right at the contact line. We were supposed to meet the troops at a checkpoint to discuss Ukrainian defence operations, but the location had to be changed because a soldier was killed at that spot by sniper fire. The Minsk Agreements are the perfect example of the injustice of a settlement where the victim is penalised and left at the mercy of the aggressor. Another point in time worth remembering is the famous red lines which President Obama drew in Syria, warning against the use of chemical weapons against the civilian population. We know very well how that story went. The red lines were crossed immediately and no US answer came. That was a major blow to US credibility and surely added to the calculations a dictator like Putin would be making. That brings us to now. Putin's goals have not changed – total control (military or political) of Ukraine and its future, control asserted in the wider region, dismantling of the rules-based world order and strengthening of an axis of chaos that better suits his needs. By the autumn of 2022 Putin's calculations might have been amended when his army was in retreat, but he got back on track with his successful nuclear blackmail, limiting western support of Ukraine to minimal survival, preventing victory. Currently his position is very favorable, he can see the clear weakness of the West, the exhaustion of Ukraine, assistance to Russia from its closest allies - Iran, China, and North Korea. All this allows him to continue advancing the front line and to stick to his declared goals. Minskish agreements would obviously suit him best – Ukraine out of any security arrangement, left to fend off the attacks alone with no major military support on its way. Russia would use this time to rebuild and technologically improve its military with Chinese industrial support. It would immediately break any ceasefires and show the weakness of the West’s imposed truces. Russia would of course blame Ukraine for breaking the ceasefire and activate agents in the West to start sowing doubt and spreading polarising narratives. There would be a push to limit sanctions, and since the EU sanctions are renewed every six months, it would only take one Hungarian veto and the EU would be unable to renew them. Normalization would be back on the table. The international observers from the toothless OSCE would be back on Ukrainian-held territory, again closely monitoring what Ukraine is doing. Russia would never agree to be monitored, and it is known that they have even obtained information from the OSCE mission about where Ukrainian forces are placed, how well equipped they are, and so on. In December 2021 Lavrov laid out Russia’s requests to the West. Among them was the request to shrink NATO back to its 1997 borders. It is entirely plausible that this would be on the table if negotiations were to take place with Ukraine in its current weakened state. This means that Ukraine’s fight is for the rest of Europe too. This is not just a political catchphrase, it is a reality. And it is not too difficult to imagine, for example, that the Baltic states would be asked to stay silent if the West would give in to Russia's request to remove troops from those three countries. It is telling that the NATO - Russia Founding Act has not been repealed, the largest allies refusing to do that. And the argument would be very simple – it's a “small price” to pay for "peace for our time". And that would constitute another major win for Putin. Two-tier NATO, with its most vulnerable allies being the least protected. In effect, Putin would be given a say on how NATO territory should be defended. In the short-term politics of the West, there will be those suggesting that this Munich-type agreement is the deal of the century. Maybe someone will be awarded a Nobel peace prize for it. But Ukrainian goals in this war also remain unchanged. It is a very simple goal – to have a safe country where one can safely raise children, do business or just simply go to work. A country to which refugees could return and in which foreign investors would feel safe investing. And no Minsk agreement can guarantee Ukraine that. So it is our duty and obligation to call things by their real names. First of all – This is no peace agreement because there will be no real peace between Russia and Ukraine. Russia will continue building up, continuing to attack its neighbours. And most dangerously there is a huge chance that many in the West will become complacent again. Fake peace will allow them to drop any pretences of preparing for a future standoff with Russia. This is a betrayal of Ukraine, it is a betrayal of the Eastern flank and others close to Russia, and most of all it is a betrayal of long term European security. Second – Ukraine can win. This has been shown by their beating Russians away from Kyiv, taking back Kharkiv and Kherson. If the West would have shrugged off the nuclear blackmail and supported Ukraine at the necessary level, Ukraine would be in a very different position right now. And Russia would actually be willing to negotiate because of losses on the battlefield and the impenetrability of Ukrainian territory. Third – Our assistance and military stance affect Putin's calculations. A major increase in assistance to Ukraine, a promise of 100 billion Euros every year until 2030 would be reflected in Putin’s calculations. Remember the Star Wars programme in the eighties? Our stance forced the Soviet Union to overspend, hastening their bankruptcy. If at least part of the assistance is spent in Ukraine, that would allow Ukraine to rebuild its economy and military more quickly. Fourth – Russia's economy is heavily strained. Reducing pressure now will prove to Putin that the West doesn't have staying power. More, not less, pressure is now needed. Fifth – The Eastern Flank must be reinforced more, not less. The German brigade in Lithuania has to become a part of a “new normal” NATO framework that must be fully expanded into other Eastern Flank countries. Russia’s shadow war must also be fought and won, with clearly enforced red lines and with NATO having the capability to offer a response of its own choice and at its own chosen time. Sixth - Front line countries fighting off Russia’s malign influence must be assisted. Russia is overextended, the Syrian example clearly showed us. We must act now. Those saying that my suggestions do not reflect reality are simply agreeing to Putin's version of reality, a reality that was constructed by force and intimidation. In 1938 Hitler also offered his version of reality to Europe and, indeed, there were those who were ready to accept it, to live under the nazi boot. But, thankfully, there were those who defied, fought, and in the end won. This allowed us to say never again will this happen in Europe or anywhere else. But alas, it is happening, and the "realists" don't have a workable solution. And so, dear reader, ***we*** have to be the ones rejecting Putins' reality, pushing back against it, never allowing complacency to set in. For us, never again means never again. If there were people trying to formulate a new Russia strategy, and they asked us about our vision for Ukraine and what our stand towards Russia should be… we would have this answer: ### Peace through strength and that’s it. ### Welcome, my first 1000 subscribers URL: https://landsbergis.com/welcome-my-first-1000-subscribers/ Last updated: 2025-02-03T18:52:25.000Z ## The bad news is: Tomorrow’s world will not be safer, more democratic, or more rational. If we are looking for parallels in history, 2024 most closely resembles 1938, and unfortunately this is no longer a wild exaggeration. A new Munich Agreement is being drafted and the aggressor, despite all hopes that he can be appeased, is very likely to continue his advance after pretending to make concessions. Despite our warnings, the people we trusted to keep us safe have, let’s say, performed at suboptimal levels. It feels like we are stuck in a taxi that keeps taking wrong turns, but the driver isn’t listening, and he won’t let us get out. Ukraine, unfortunately, will likely be denied the increased support they are requesting to strengthen their position on the battlefield, and most likely there will be no real security guarantees after the war. The world will become an even more dangerous place. The US might miss this historic opportunity to retain its position as the leader of the free world, and the EU is too fractured to stand strong in the face of strategic dangers posed to the continent. Russia will take all this as a clear sign of western weakness and a sign that they are allowed to rebuild and continue. This leaves front line countries like mine in a dire situation, exposed and vulnerable, things escalating all around us and the foreseeable outcomes continuing to be unforeseen by those who have the power to change course. Without that change, the territory of this situation will only expand. Current suggestions for “peace” would suppress Ukraine’s recovery but not reduce Russia’s appetite. Instead of waiting for another flawed “peace process” to fail disastrously, we must act now and present our case for Ukraine’s victory. We must keep showing decision makers that their current strategy leaves their allies at the mercy of imperialist powers, just as it did in 1938\. The values of rules-based justice, self-determination and sovereignty must be defended like never before, so we avoid taking the same terrible wrong turns twice. ## The good news is: It’s still not too late. We still live in peaceful democracies, therefore we still have the means and the ability to make changes happen. I am inviting you all to become part of the solution, united and stronger than those who are threatening our freedom. Here’s some things we can do to make tomorrow turn out less terrible than it looks today. ### Georgia Russia is keen on regaining its foothold in the Southern Caucasus and the current Georgian government provides the best opportunity for just that. Again, very unfortunately, Europe is too divided and obsessed with internal issues, seemingly ready to “let Georgia go” rather than to fight alongside its people to keep their country on the European path. We must support the protests in any way we can, keep up the pressure on European leaders and keep Georgia on everybody’s minds. See my response to the recent Georgian Dream attack on Lithuania and Estonia [here](https://x.com/GLandsbergis/status/1868597785802821902?ref=landsbergis.com). Events in Syria clearly show that Russia can be pushed out. It happened there it can (and must) happen in Georgia too. ### Ukraine The lie about Ukraine is that victory is impossible. Ukraine could be given all the weapons needed for victory and this discussion would be over, but while the discussion continues – we must bust the dangerous myth that defending our values is impossible. We must also shatter the illusion that capitulation to a war criminal would save anybody from anything. Repeat daily. And most importantly we cannot remain silent when we see a huge betrayal happening in front of our eyes. Forcing Ukraine to give in to Russia is a betrayal not just of Ukraine but of every one of us who supported Ukraine in its struggle. Let this be known far and wide. Developments will be closely monitored by all the main actors who might use momentum to further their agendas. China will be more assertive, Taiwan and other countries in the Indo Pacific will be more vulnerable. ### Russia There is no need to care about what happens in Russia itself, but an undefeated Russia would continue to be very dangerous. The only sensible plan is to make Europe safe from Russia, protected whatever happens in Russia, independent economically from Russia, resilient whoever runs Russia. Russia can and must be defeated everywhere they attack – first and foremost in Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. They must be defeated in their shadow war in the Baltic States and beyond. They must also be defeated in the world information war, instead of being allowed to invade and occupy our networks and our minds. ### Everyone reading this newsletter can play their part in making the world aware of the reality of making deals with Russia. Keep playing your part until we win. ### Last day as Foreign Minister URL: https://landsbergis.com/last-day-as-foreign-minister/ Last updated: 2024-12-19T21:22:58.000Z My super interesting four years as Lithuania's foreign minister have come to an end, but the global fight for freedom goes on. In 2020 at the height of the pandemic I began my work in the Foreign Affairs Ministry not knowing what would be around the corner. One of my initial goals was to limit the operational space of the regimes that are unfriendly to us and our friends. Well, I didn’t know what a hot topic that would become. Belarus, Russia, China, later Iran and North Korea joined to form the Axis of Chaos, not only encroaching on, but actively disrupting the everyday lives of people in Western countries, including mine. And then the War. The West was shocked, challenged, and still doesn't believe in victory. Democracies, with all their power, ability, innovation and strength are acting like they are besieged and weakened, not like they are fighting a decisive battle against dictatorship. I wish my successor Kęstutis Budrys the strength and patience needed to maintain Lithuania’s lead as a loyal transatlantic partner and flagbearer for democracy. It has been an honor and a privilege to take part in this fight as a foreign minister, but it is also true that in every ending there is a beginning. I cannot fully disclose what my next beginning will be, but I can tell you that the fight of our lives is not over, and victory is within our reach. I will be giving my support first and foremost to Ukraine, but also other frontline countries. You will find me alongside Moldova, side by side with the Georgian and Belarusian people, striving for a peaceful and European future. You will find me supporting Taiwan in their struggle, and reminding our friends and allies in the powerful West what happens if we give up the fight for freedom. I am not leaving, I will be staying with you, here at the front line. I will continue my advocacy, open new channels, reach out, point out, and shout out if necessary. More specifically, my diaries are being edited for publication and I am collecting my memoirs and thoughts on diplomacy in times of war. I will drop a preview soon, so let’s keep in touch. Join my newsletter, stick to your principles and we will all keep fighting until we meet at the victory celebrations. [https://landsbergis.com](https://landsbergis.com/)